Every game in the NFL is a “prove it” game, but Monday night’s matchup asks each side to confirm what we’ve recently seen from them, but in a slightly different way.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ resume is impeccable, but an 0-2 start left many wondering if their reign in the AFC was coming to an end. A Sunday night win at the Giants seemed to be more about outlasting an uninspiring effort from New York than Kansas City’s primetime resurgence. Then last week’s return of Xavier Worthy appeared to reinvigorate Patrick Mahomes, who threw four passing touchdowns for the first time in years. Now, the Chiefs go back on the road, and if they beat the Jaguars convincingly, that will cement that K.C. is “back” in many eyes.
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Unless, of course, you don’t think much of the Jaguars’ 3-1 start.
Jacksonville comes off of a win at home over the Texans, and then a message-sending victory in San Francisco. The Jags have basically the opposite reputation to the Chiefs, but a win in front of a national audience over the AFC powerhouse would prove to the public that Liam Coen’s group has arrived.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 46) at Jacksonville Jaguars
If you measured the betting market’s perception on a scale out of 100, the Chiefs have spent most of the Mahomes era between the high-60s and mid-70s on a week-to-week basis. The point spreads of their games have been set accordingly, and while the Chiefs have won a high percentage of their games, their high rating has made covering those lines as a favorite more challenging in recent years.
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So, with Kansas City’s sluggish start, down came their rating, drifting into the 50s. That was reflected in a line inside of a touchdown against the lowly Giants, and going off as a home underdog against the Ravens, despite Baltimore travelling on a short week.
Beating the Ravens soundly is enough for the betting market to buy back in on K.C., since Chiefs -3.5 assumes their rating is back into the high-60s. By comparison, if the Chiefs rating hadn’t changed off of the Baltimore game, this game would be a pick’em.
As for Jacksonville, it came into the season lined at 7.5 wins, which is that of a below-average, sub-.500 team. The Jaguars are 3-1, with a crucial Week 2 drop from Brian Thomas Jr. away from likely being 4-0. Yet, perhaps with their brand name hurting them, the Jaguars have only been upgraded to slightly above-average.
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A bet here comes down to whether you think the Chiefs can out-perform the already-high standard of their rating in the market place, or whether the Jaguars are still worthy of being called “underrated.”
Compiling all elements of a team’s play via qualitative analysis, PFF has the Jaguars rated ninth in the NFL (to the Chiefs’ 12th). From an expected points added per play (EPA/play) perspective, if we filter out garbage time (plays where one team has a win probability of 80% or more) and the high-leverage result of plays with a turnover, the Jaguars EPA/play is on a tier with top-seven teams like the Bills, 49ers, Chargers, Broncos and Seahawks.
Those same metrics have the Chiefs down in the middle part of the league with the Raiders, Commanders and Giants.
Again, the optimism for the Chiefs is based on what we can expect to see from Mahomes and Co. going forward – not their stats in the rearview – but the Jaguars not only have room to move upwards in the betting market, they have the metrics to suggest that they will. As a result, getting a field goal and the hook with the home team is a bet worth making.
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Pick: Jaguars +3.5
Player propsKareem Hunt: Under 8.5 rush attempts (-110)
You can tell the Chiefs would like a more explosive, dangerous option, but carrying the football when it’s not in the hands of Patrick Mahomes is a matter of trust in the Chiefs organization.
Hunt has had 36 carries this season, and just one has gone for 10 or more yards. He’s averaging 3.2 yards per carry, and he hasn’t had a game where he averaged even 4.0 YPC.
Just last week, Isiah Pacheco averaged 5.0 YPC to Hunt’s 2.6. Meanwhile, rookie seventh-round pick Brashard Smith got a career-high 19 snaps and a handful of carries, making three catches as well.
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With other, more efficient options, we’ll bet that Hunt doesn’t get as significant a workload as he has in the last two weeks, especially since those games required the Chiefs to run out the clock, and a close game on Monday night might not give them that luxury.
Xavier Worthy: Over 58.5 rush + receiving yards (-115)
We’ve been told that Worthy’s return has re-opened up the Chiefs’ offense.
Well, let’s see it.
Worthy was eased back into things last week, as he was on the field for just 43 of the 67 (64%) snaps that Mahomes was at QB. By the end of last season, like clockwork, Worthy was on the field 82% of the time. So, after a game with 121 total yards on five receptions and two rushing attempts, there might be room for even more opportunity. Especially, if the Chiefs are pressed for longer than the three quarters they were by Baltimore last week.
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Travis Hunter: Over 28.5 rush + receiving yards (-110)
Here’s how Travis Hunter has been lined in receiving-yardage markets through his four career games: 48.5, 33.5, 36.5, 34.5.
So, we’re already getting a discount on his previous totals, especially considering he’s gone over 27.5 twice, including just last week.
Hunter didn’t play a snap on defense in Week 4, so it seems like the Jaguars staff is more interested in using him on offense.
Of course, if there was a time when you wanted to make a point that you didn’t waste the No. 2 overall draft pick on a sometimes-cornerback and part-time wide receiver, it would be with a couple of extra designed plays (which may include a rushing attempt) during the national audience provided by a Monday Night Football game.
Will Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Travis Hunter have a big game on Monday Night Football? (AP Photo/Scot Tucker)
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)Anytime touchdownWR Xavier Worthy (+150)
With four passing touchdowns for Mahomes last week, it felt like everybody but Worthy was on the receiving end of a score. At +150, the implied probability that Worthy scores is about 40%.
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In his rookie season, Worthy scored in eight of 16 regular season games played, and in two of three postseason games, suggesting that it’s more of a 50/50 shot the key to unlocking the Chiefs’ offense scores in any given game.
RB Brashard Smith (+600)
The rookie may not play a lot, but there’s a long history of Andy Reid putting raw, talented players in position to take advantage of their talents on specific plays, and Smith getting seven touches last week was a good start. Given his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, Smith might be the latest – along the lines of Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman, and Kadarius Toney – to be used sparingly, but effectively, in small doses, which may result in a touchdown.
RB Travis Etienne (+100)
Etienne used to be a touchdown machine at Clemson. While his compadre in the backfield, Trevor Lawrence, is the one said to be needing a revival in Liam Coen’s offense, Etienne’s the one who’s already gotten it.
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Finally the undisputed lead back in the offense, Etienne has at least 14 carries in every game this season, with at least two targets in the passing game. With a touchdown in each of his last three games, and 14 red zone touches so far this season, Etienne being available as long as +130 in the market is worth shopping for, but he’s better than 50/50 to score here, making even-money the shortest price worth buying.
TE Brenton Strange (+320)
The Jaguars have gotten sneaky in the red zone, throwing two touchdowns to Hunter Long, already this season, but that Jags’ tight end only has six total receptions on the season.
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Call it, *ahem* strange, but Jacksonville’s primary tight end Strange actually leads the team in receptions and yardage this season, but, curiously, doesn’t have a red zone look yet.
Given how frequently Lawrence looks his way, it would be … odd … if Strange wasn’t a more prominent option near the end zone soon.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.