Week 5 wraps up with a battle between two AFC playoff contenders in Jacksonville.
The Jaguars, who are off to a surprising 3-1 start under first-year head coach Liam Coen, host the Chiefs (2-2) tonight in a massive game for both teams.
With a win, Kansas would move into a three-way tie with the Chargers and Broncos atop the AFC West. For the Jaguars, tonight’s game is an opportunity to not only keep pace with the 4-1 Colts in the AFC South, but show that they can hang with a perennial contender in primetime.
How To Watch Chiefs vs. JaguarsKickoff: 8:15 p.m. EDTTV: ABC/ESPNChiefs vs. Jaguars Betting Odds: Spread, MLDKFDbet365KC spread-3.5 (-110)-3.5 (-104)-3.5 (-110)JAX spread+3.5 (-110)+3.5 (-118)+3.5 (-110)KC ML-198-190-205JAX ML+164+160+170Total45.5 (o-112; u-108)45.5 (o-110; u-110)45.5 (o-110; u-110)Chiefs vs. Jaguars Betting News, AnalysisKansas City Chiefs Injury News
Backup corner Kristian Fulton and rookie DT Omarr Norman-Lott are questionable for Kansas City. Norman-Lott’s absence could be an underrated issue for the Chiefs against a Jaguars team that is averaging 144 yards per game on the ground this season.
The status of WR Xavier Worthy is also worth mentioning here. His return from a shoulder injury that he suffered in Week 1 provided a massive boost last weekend in his team’s 37-20 win over the Ravens. He is carrying a “questionable” designation into tonight’s game after dealing with ankle swelling on Sunday. But according to NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport, he is expected to play tonight.
Jacksonville Jaguars Injury News
The Jags have ruled out backup linebacker Yasir Abdullah, and backup guard Wyatt Milum is listed as questionable.
But — assuming Worthy is active for Kansas City — the biggest name on the injury report for either team is Jaguars DE Travon Walker. The No. 1 pick overall in the 2022 NFL Draft is tied for second on the team with two tackles for loss, and he is also second on the team in both QB hits and sacks.
He injured his wrist against the 49ers last Sunday and underwent surgery last Monday, then had a limited practice on Saturday after missing practice on both Thursday and Friday. Coen said on Sunday that the decision on whether Walker plays tonight will “go right down to the wire.”
The absence of one of their top D-linemen would be a huge blow for a Jags D that is off to a strong start, especially against the run (only the Packers have allowed fewer than the 331 yards rushing that the Jags have given up).
Jacksonville enters tonight’s game 10th in the NFL in pressure rate, at 20.5 percent, but it has only recorded seven sacks, which is fewer than all but four teams league-wide. With Walker limited — or unavailable — pressuring and/or taking down Patrick Mahomes could be a massive struggle.
Best Chiefs vs. Jaguars Player Prop BetTravis Etienne Longest Rush: Over 14.5 Yards (-102 at FanDuel)
We’re getting a great price here. Jaguars RB Travis Etienne has already had three carries of 30-plus yards this year. His longest rush in a single game was shorter than 15 yards just once, back in Week 3 against the excellent Texans D.
Etienne’s averaging a career-high 6.1 yards per attempt, and he’s gotten it done against a couple of respectable rushing defenses. Against San Francisco in Week 4 — which is allowing just 4.1 yards per carry this year — Etienne had 19 carries for 124 yards, including a 48-yarder.
In Week 1 against the Panthers, Etienne picked up 143 rushing yards on just 16 carries, with a long of 71. Carolina had the worst rushing D in the league a year ago, but the Panthers are allowing just 4.5 yards per carry this year, and they’ve been a good run D against every opponent besides the Jaguars.
The case for this play gets substantially stronger when you consider how many long runs the Chiefs are allowing. Last week, Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson had a 17-yard run, RB Justice Hill had a 71-yard carry and Derrick Henry recorded a long rush of 14 yards.
In Week 3, three players for the Giants, including Russell Wilson, each had at least a 10-yard rush, and in Week 2, Saquon Barkley (13 yards) and Jalen Hurts (11 yards) tallied an explosive run apiece.
In what should be a close game in which the Jaguars lean on Etienne, who has had 16 carries or more in three of his first four games, it would be surprising to see Etienne not rip off at least one 15-yarder.
Related: Etienne Over 14.5 rush attempts (-114 at FanDuel) is another tempting prop bet in this game.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Prediction, Best Bets
It’s been a bad week for betting favorites in the NFL, but I nevertheless trust the Chiefs to get the job done.
The Jaguars have done a lot right so far this season, but I have my doubts about this defense — which has forced a league-high 13 turnovers — especially if they’re without Walker and/or Mahomes and Co. are able to take care of the football.
Remember, for as much as KC struggled in Weeks 1 and 2, this team has turned it over just once in four games, and it only had 14 turnovers in all of 2024.
Offensively, the Jags’ running game has been tremendous, but it faces a tough test against Chris Jones and the Kansas City front seven tonight. Last week, the Chiefs D struggled to contain Lamar Jackson (6 carries for 48 yards), and it gave up a 71-yard run to Justice Hill. But Kansas City has also limited Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley to a total of just 130 yards on 30 carries in Weeks 2 and 4.
One way or another, the Jags are likely going to need a big night from Trevor Lawrence to pull the upset. Lawrence has done enough to get Jacksonville to 3-1, but he’s already thrown four interceptions, and he’s only averaged 6 yards per attempt or more once in four games. His consistently underwhelming numbers to date this year make it impossible for me to take Jacksonville tonight.
If the Chiefs can avoid turnovers and keep Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten in check, the road favorites are going to have a good chance to win this one comfortably.
And even if either or both of those things don’t go according to plan for KC, I’m taking Mahomes to pull out a close one over this version of Lawrence.
One play I like in addition to Kansas City to cover as the road favorite is the Jags to go under their team total of 20.5 points.
Chiefs -3.5 (-104 at FanDuel) — 1 unitJaguars Team Total Under 20.5 points (-104 at FD) — 1 unit
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