Inside: Evaluating the weaknesses of top contenders, early Week 6 prep and two questions with fantasy expert Jake Ciely.

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Reasons to doubt each 4-1 team

The Eagles began 2025 with lofty expectations. Seeing the reigning champs tied with the Bills and Ravens as the league’s preseason Super Bowl favorites, 98.3 percent of Eagles fans were optimistic (behind only Denver in The Athletic’s Hope-O-Meter rankings).

Rightfully so. 2024’s top team kept its defensive core intact under coordinator Vic Fangio, while their offense returned 10 of 11 starters.

We’re now five weeks into the season, and it’s clear that their offense, led by first-year coordinator Kevin Patullo, has gone stale.

Here’s one key reason why: Offensive line replacements have contributed to a middling run game, which in turn allows opponents to defend the Eagles differently. (Patullo certainly shares a large portion of the blame, as our Ted Nguyen explained here).

At this point last season, Saquon Barkley was averaging 96.4 rushing yards per game. He’s averaging 53.4 now, and has yet to break a run longer than 17 yards.

It’s not fully his fault. Barkley’s getting less than 1 yard before contact per run, one of the worst marks in the league. His runs last season led the NFL in that yards before contact, at nearly 3.

The bedrock of Philly’s success was its star-studded offensive line, which hasn’t been the same after a dominant but lengthy 2024. Right tackle Lane Johnson, their second-best run blocker, has missed 71 snaps, while their starting center and left guard have battled through injuries. Tyler Steen, the successor to Mekhi Becton at right guard, hasn’t been an adequate replacement, ranking 57th at his position in PFF’s run-blocking metric.

Without the threat of that run game, defenses can play more two-high zone, against which quarterback Jalen Hurts struggles, as Ted Nguyen’s Eagles film review explained. Their offense has been below average in most underlying categories, a steep drop-off compared to last year’s early results, as this graph from Mike Sando shows.

Still, Philly is 4-1, fielding enough talent, particularly on defense, to contend. But this weekend’s loss to the Broncos dropped the Eagles to third in our Week 6 Power Rankings, and if their run game issues aren’t addressed, they could fall further.

Philadelphia isn’t the only 4-1 team in need of critical fixes, however.

Bills: Secondary. 

Buffalo’s hardships on third downs are partly due to cornerbacks. At this stage in Tre’Davious White’s career, he can’t keep up; he ranks well below average in PFF grade (74th of 106 qualifying corners) while allowing an 80 percent reception rate.

Top corner Christian Benford has been worse than expected (77th in PFF grade), and Taron Johnson hasn’t been much better (60th). They could use speedy first-round rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston, who missed most of training camp but is now eligible to return from IR. Expect Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to test this secondary on Monday.

Buccaneers: Fourth quarters.

The first team in NFL history to have each of their first four wins come via scores in the final minute of regulation, the Bucs shouldn’t let things be so close.

Unfortunately, their defense can’t close games. It ranks 30th in fourth-quarter expected points added (EPA), and the Buccaneers have been outscored in the fourth quarter in every victory: 14-10 by Seattle, 21-6 by the Jets, 9-6 by the Texans and 7-6 by the Falcons. A big conference game against the 49ers looms.

49ers: Run game. 

While their plethora of injured stars has been a big talking point, the inability to open lanes for star Christian McCaffrey — who has averaged just 3.1 yards per carry — is just as concerning. (Matt Barrows explains what’s causing the 49ers’ run-game struggles.)

It has forced Kyle Shanahan to dig into his bag to create opportunities for McCaffrey as a receiver. It’s worked, and McCaffrey is on pace for 1,315 receiving yards, which would break that record among running backs (1,097 by the Rams’ Del Shofner in 1958).

Colts: Kicker.

Losing Spencer Shrader to a season-ending leg injury is a devastating blow for the upstart. Shrader was one of the league’s best so far, hitting 13 of his 14 field goal attempts and all 14 of his extra points.

Against the Broncos a few weeks ago, he scored Indy’s only second-half points, including the game-winning field goal. He was 2-for-2 on the day when the Colts should have beaten the Rams. The 2-3 Cardinals are next on the calendar.

Lions: Cornerback. 

The validity of their four-game win streak will be tested in each their next five games: Chiefs, Buccaneers, Vikings, Commanders and Eagles.

They’ll need to win despite the loss of their two starting cornerbacks, 2024’s first-round pick Terrion Arnold (who might be back soon) and key offseason free agent D.J. Reed (who’s on IR until at least Week 10). With top reserve cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr. already out for the year, Detroit could be starting a fifth-string corner. Here we go again? (Up next: Kansas City.)

Jaguars (yes, they’re 4-1): Passing game. 

Jacksonville has risen from 4-13 to become one of the league’s top teams. But don’t be fooled: Lawrence hasn’t been great, other than during that stumbling scramble. His passer rating ranks 29th, and his EPA per pass attempt ranks 30th, better than only the benched (and, earlier today, traded to rival Cincinnati) Joe Flacco, rookie Cam Ward and backup Jake Browning.

Lawrence’s completion percentage is 5.5 points worse than expected, per Next Gen Stats, and he’s thrown five interceptions. His receivers should be better (a league-high 14 drops), but the fifth-year vet has much to clean up in his next game against Seattle.

For more on all 32 teams: Our Week 6 Power Rankings have a first-time No. 1, and it’s not the Buccaneers. Now, we’ll switch gears to fantasy. Over to Jake Ciely.

All In with Jake Ciely

I dug into two fantasy questions from Jacob today. Let’s get right to them:

Which hot start — between Cowboys RB Javonte Williams and Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins — is most sustainable?

Both!? I do think Williams can maintain RB1 value and Dobbins mid-high RB2 value.

Williams finally looks close to his pre-injury self from years ago and doesn’t have a ton of competition for touches. Unless he gets hurt, Williams should continue to produce … albeit by providing more mid-low RB1 value than his current top-five status.

As for Dobbins, this was always a possibility — a healthy Dobbins keeps the lead. Now, if I had to choose, Dobbins wouldn’t be the choice of the two. His career’s only nearly full season (15 games) happened four years ago when he was a rookie, and Sean Payton loves multiple running backs. Maybe he finally uses RJ Harvey in a timeshare and stops with Tyler Badie too (face palm).

Same question but for receivers Emeka Egbuka, Deebo Samuel and Rome Odunze: Which is most sustainable?

While they all have a chance to maintain as well, I believe there is one clear answer here: Rome Odunze.

Emeka Egbuka is amazing, but Mike Evans is returning soon, and Chris Godwin will continue to improve as he gets back to 100 percent. Deebo Samuel has Terry McLaurin back (eventually?).

So the answer is Odunze and his breakout season. Caleb Williams has improved as well, but even during his struggles, one thing is clear: It’s Odunze and then everyone else. DJ Moore can’t even get consistent No. 2 work, and for good reason, since Odunze has become what everyone had hoped, back when the Bears took him as a top-10 pick last year. Back to you, Jacob.

Week 6 waivers and targets

You’re busy, and might’ve lost Omarion Hampton to the IR, so let’s speed through some waiver targets from Jake’s Week 6 waiver wire column.

(You should probably start by checking your league’s wire for Rico Dowdle, the top add after his 234-yard day.)

As for players more likely to be available:

No. 1: Cardinals RB Michael Carter. He dominated snaps outside of one drive and late downs as Arizona’s latest replacement, taking 23 touches for 73 yards and a touchdown. It’s a role he should maintain for as long as Trey Benson is on the IR, especially after Emari Demercado’s fumble (which Jonathan Gannon didn’t take well).

No. 2: Jets TE Mason Taylor. Positivity here! I suspected he would win the No. 2 receiving role in New York, but it took a while. He has seen his target counts rise each week, with a career-high 12 in a Week 5 loss to the Cowboys, when he caught nine passes for 67 yards. The rookie second-round pick should see similar production going forward, with a snap share of 80-plus percent.

No. 3: Chargers RB Hassan Haskins. He was with Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, and is my bet to be the head coach’s trusted replacement for Hampton. A career average of 3.0 yards per carry and the Chargers’ makeshift offensive line might render Haskins a trap add, but he and RB Kimani Vidal are worth speculative claims.

No. 4: Browns WR Isaiah Bond. A late offseason signing, he has room to improve. He has run the wrong route at times, but saw seven targets from quarterback Dillon Gabriel and should remain the WR2 with Cedric Tillman on IR.

Deeper leagues: Cowboys WR Ryan Flournoy. Who? The second-year, undrafted free agent from Southeast Missouri State saw nine targets on Sunday, catching six for 114 yards. A physical, 6-1 receiver who fights for extra yards, Flournoy also contributed as a run blocker. That should lead to increased opportunities, so long as CeeDee Lamb is out.

Buying: Dolphins TE Darren Waller. As Jake noted, Waller was one of only two Miami receiving options with end-zone targets in Week 5, and the 33-year-old former retiree now has 105 yards and three touchdowns through his two games in Mike McDaniels’ offense. With Tyreek Hill out for the year, Waller has Jonnu Smith-like top-five upside.

Extra Points

🏧 First NFL paycheck? Watch Matt Forte explain what happened with his first bonus on the “No Free Lunch” podcast with Ndamukong Suh. Taxes were a shock to me too, Matt, though a much less costly one.

👀 High-profile gaffe. Remember Jayden Daniels’ 2024 Hail Mary to beat the Bears? Chicago’s Tyrique Stevenson was seen taunting fans prior to that moment, left Noah Brown open and deflected the ball into Brown’s hands. “It’s forever burned on my career,” he says, and Dan Wiederer profiles Stevenson’s journey for self-improvement since.

🎯 What’s missing in KC? Beat reporter Jesse Newell explores the issues plaguing the 2-3 Chiefs, who get star receiver Rashee Rice back in Week 7.

📊 QB stock report. It’s time to discuss Drake Maye’s spot among the NFL’s elite quarterbacks, and Jeff Howe does just that while moving Maye into the top 10 in his QB rankings.

▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: Mike Sando’s Pick Six column.

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(Photo: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)