US LBM Coaches Poll: Penn State and Texas plummet
USA TODAY Sports’ Paul Myerberg breaks down the latest US LBM Coaches poll and where Penn State and Texas land after brutal loses.
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If Penn State fired James Franklin, he’d be owed a whopper of a buyout.James Franklin broke his end of the bargain when Nittany Lions lost to UCLA.No jobs open would seem like a great fit for James Franklin, but it only takes one.
The best part about employing James Franklin is, almost without fail, you know exactly what you’re going to get.
The worst part about employing Franklin is, almost without fail, you know exactly what you’re going to get.
He’s an Arby’s Beef ‘n Cheddar. You know what’s on the other side of that order.
He’s the Honda Accord. You know the engine will fire up when you turn the key, while conceding you won’t win a drag race.
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These are the terms of Penn State’s union with Franklin. He’s the portrait of steadiness, without providing much hope of preeminence.
That’s what made Penn State’s faceplant at UCLA so jarring. Franklin broke the agreement. His meat-and-potatoes program did something beyond surprising. The Nittany Lions shocked us, and not in a good way, by losing 42-37 to previously winless UCLA.
No beef. No cheddar. Pure torture.
“Did not live up to our expectations or standards,” Franklin said. “Over our time here we really haven’t had those types of games. So, obviously, disappointed.”
Penn State lost to an unranked team for the first time since 2021. Long gone is that preseason No. 2 ranking in the US LBM Coaches Poll. One more loss almost certainly would eject Penn State (3-2) from the playoff race, and No. 1 Ohio State and No. 7 Indiana remain on the schedule.
Employing Franklin comes with the understanding he cannot beat Ryan Day. If he’s also losing to woebegone UCLA, then he’s outlasted his utility.
Penn State, though, remains hitched to Franklin. If it fired him after this season, he’d be due a buyout in excess of $48 million. That would be the second-largest buyout in college football history. His term sheet released by Penn State does not address whether Franklin would have a duty to mitigate the damages.
Rather than firing Franklin, Penn State would be better off if he took inspiration from Lincoln Riley and Brian Kelly and vamoosed.
Would James Franklin dare leave Penn State?
Could Franklin leave Penn State fall forward into a better job? I doubt it. Penn State is a top-15 job.
Could he fall laterally? Perhaps.
Could he find a school that would pay him more than the $8.5 million in annual compensation he earns at Penn State? Again, perhaps. In the SEC, multiple coaches who have never qualified for the College Football Playoff earn $9 million.
Penn State and Franklin know what their ceiling is together. It’s short of a national championship.
The Nittany Lions reached the CFP semifinals last season, but they also went 0-3 against their three toughest opponents, so it cannot be said they came close to winning a national championship. Winning a national title requires victories in at least three consecutive big games. That’s simply not the M.O. for a coach sarcastically nicknamed “Big Game James.”
“I believe in Penn State,” a resolute Franklin said this week. “I believe in our players. I believe in (everyone involved in the program), and I believe in myself.”
I believe he’s peaked at Penn State.
Lincoln Riley, Brian Kelly offer inspiration for a fast exit
Franklin pulling a Riley or a Kelly would reset Penn State’s floor and its ceiling. The Nittany Lions could do worse than Franklin, but a coaching search would provide what Franklin cannot: illusions of a national championship.
Franklin’s taken Penn State as far as he can.
Coaches tend to harbor a hearty ego. Might Franklin convince himself he’d be better served by another program?
There are multiple Power Four openings where Franklin would be an upgrade on the predecessor, but no current vacancy remotely makes sense for him. The image of Franklin calling the Hogs at Arkansas makes me cringe.
With Florida, Auburn, Wisconsin and others employing coaches on the hot seat, more jobs are bound to open within the next several weeks, but Franklin’s loss to UCLA and his poor history against top-10 opponents would make him a tough hire to sell to any fan base dreaming of glory.
James Franklin options: Spin his tires at Penn State or roll the dice
Kelly makes for one of the fairer comparisons to Franklin. Both coaches are career achievers who win far more games than they lose. Both typically wilt in marquee moments.
Kelly, at Notre Dame, coached in one BCS national championship game. His Irish got routed by Alabama. A pair of Citrus Bowl triumphs count as Kelly’s biggest postseason victories.
Kelly benefited from the narrative he uplifted Notre Dame more than it propelled him. Similarly, if Franklin departs, he’d leave Penn State better than he found it.
Kelly convinced himself he could win a national championship by leaving Notre Dame. In fact, he’s no closer to attaining that achievement than the day he left South Bend.
Penn State doesn’t need Franklin to actually win a national championship. It only needs him to think he can — somewhere else. Because, the day Franklin lost to pitiful UCLA, he stopped holding up his end of the bargain. His exit would bring this sad trombone to its climax.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.