College football’s conference races are still in their nascent stages, but this week will answer some key questions. The SEC and Big Ten both have top teams going on the road against quality opponents, while the Big 12 continues its balanced madness.
If the spreads are any indication, we could see a handful of Top 25 teams lose. Buckle up for a college football Saturday loaded with potential pitfalls for big-name programs. Then again, if winless UCLA was a pitfall for Penn State a week ago, anything seems possible.
Our staff has picks against the spread for the biggest Week 7 games, plus extra wild-card picks where anything goes at the bottom. Here are the picks before getting into what’s at stake this week:
Who is who in the Big Ten?
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois, noon ET on FOX
No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon, 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
No. 15 Michigan at USC, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
With Penn State’s collapse, a clear top four in the Big Ten standings and the odds emerged: Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and Michigan. Oregon hosts Indiana in a top-10 showdown, Ohio State goes on the road against a top-20 team in Illinois, and Michigan is an underdog crossing three time zones to play at USC.
In short, this could be fun.
While a road game at No. 17 might look tricky, Ohio State is favored by more than two touchdowns. The Buckeyes’ defense has given up two touchdowns all year and kept both Washington and Minnesota to single digits the last two weeks. Throw in the recent memory of Illinois losing by 53 at Indiana, and there isn’t much reason to think OSU is in danger of losing.
The showcase game is Indiana at Oregon. Oregon’s recent statement win at Penn State looks different than it did at the time, but that won’t matter if the Ducks take care of business as a 7.5-point favorite. Last year, the Hoosiers got whomped in the two games against elite opposition (a 38-15 loss at Ohio State and a 27-17 loss at Notre Dame that was 27-3 with less than two minutes left). Will this year be any different?
The Big Ten race appears to be narrowing in on OSU and Oregon (and potentially IU if the Hoosiers can win on Saturday), but Michigan is lurking quietly. The Wolverines lost at Oklahoma, but are 2-0 in Big Ten play and don’t play another team in the current AP Top 25 until Ohio State at the end of the regular season. Michigan hasn’t exactly passed the eye test yet, and traveling this far doesn’t always go well, which helps explain why USC is favored. But if the Wolverines pass this test, it’s reasonable to expect Michigan to stay in the race until the Buckeyes come calling. Wouldn’t that be fun (and potentially triggering for OSU fans)?
SEC could have a shakeup
No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Missouri, noon ET on ABC
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas, 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC (at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas)
Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
No. 10 Georgia at Auburn, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Alabama, you just won at Georgia and then avenged an embarrassing loss from last year to a now-ranked Vanderbilt team, but you’re not going to Disneyland. The Crimson Tide get another test, this time at undefeated Missouri.
If you doubt the bona fides of Missouri, which doesn’t have a Top-25 win yet (although it does have decent wins against Kansas and South Carolina), the Tigers are just one of two teams in the country to be top five in yards per game on offense (547.6) and defense (203.8). Indiana is the other (what a time to be alive).
For both offenses, it’s strength against weakness. The Tigers have Ahmad Hardy, the country’s leading rusher with 730 yards, and Alabama is fourth from the bottom among SEC teams in rushing yards allowed per game (155.4). Alabama is fifth in the country in passing yards per game (325.4) while Missouri’s pass defense has been susceptible to deep balls and gave up 302 yards to South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers a few weeks ago.
Alabama being only a 3-point favorite at Missouri sounds weird, but the computers are giving the Tigers a real chance. Austin Mock’s College Football Projection Model favors Alabama by two points, and Bill Connelly’s SP+ favors the Tigers to win.
The fun in the SEC doesn’t stop there. Red River has an extra bit of intrigue with Texas in freefall, but the Longhorns are small favorites against Oklahoma with John Mateer injured. Fans of defense get ready: The total is listed at 43.5.
Florida beat Texas last week, and congrats to Gators fans for avoiding a 1-4 start, but the schedule only gets harder with a trip to No. 5 Texas A&M. Freshman wide receiver Dallas Wilson missed the first four games due to injury and lit up the Longhorns for six catches for 111 yards and two touchdowns. Is he enough of a difference-maker to help the Gators threaten the Aggies?
While Alabama is only -3 at Missouri, Georgia is only -3.5 at Auburn. Auburn is 0-2 in SEC play but only lost by one score at Oklahoma and at Texas A&M. The Tigers’ offense isn’t going to scare Georgia, but the Auburn defense is allowing 16.4 points per game and could muck this game up.
Plenty of danger for top programs in the SEC this week.
The Big 12 is at it again
The Big 12 is up to its usual tricks this week, with not only No. 21 Arizona State a solid underdog at Utah (10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN), but No. 22 Iowa State is only favored by 3 at Colorado, and No. 18 BYU is only favored by 2.5 at Arizona. Every week in the Big 12 features a few near toss-up games (you can throw in TCU at Kansas State as well this week).
While Texas Tech has emerged as the clear favorite to win the conference (-120 odds on BetMGM), the chasing pack is still a jumbled mess. Four teams are 2-0 in conference play: the Red Raiders, BYU, Cincinnati and Arizona State. ASU and Cincinnati lost nonconference games to unranked opponents, and BYU’s only win against a team with a winning record is East Carolina, putting question marks on three of those four.
The most eye-catching spread is ASU getting 5.5 points at Utah. The Sun Devils have been living in one-score games, with all three games against Power 4 opponents being decided by four points or less. ASU has come out on top in its last two games, at Baylor and against TCU, by matching 27-24 scores. This makes the Sun Devils the perfect encapsulation of this balanced and competitive conference.
Utah has not had a close game yet. The Utes blew out UCLA, Cal Poly, Wyoming and West Virginia and lost by 24 at home to Texas Tech. That loss to Tech put Utah out of mind a bit in the Big 12 race, but a win here would put the Utes squarely back in it.
Round 1 in the American’s title race
While Power 4 races get more attention, the American has a solid five-team race forming. Navy, Memphis and North Texas are undefeated. South Florida is ranked, with its only loss coming at No. 2 Miami. Tulane has two Power-4 wins (Duke and Northwestern), with its only loss coming at No. 4 Ole Miss.
It’s appearing more and more likely that the winner of the American will make the College Football Playoff with these five teams vying for that spot.
Friday night features the first head-to-head of these five contenders, with USF heading to North Texas. The Mean Green aren’t as proven as some of the other contenders, but they did beat Washington State by a whopping 49 points a few weeks ago. USF, meanwhile, knocked off Boise State and Florida before getting obliterated by Miami. That apparently comes out as a wash because this is a pick ’em.
USF quarterback Byrum Brown leads the team in rushing (282 yards) while UNT redshirt freshman Drew Mestemaker has the third most yards of any quarterback yet to throw an interception. Mestemaker has thrown for 1,247 yards, and only UConn’s Joe Fagnano and Illinois’ Luke Altmyer have thrown for more without a pick.
Wild-card picks
Every week, our pickers select another bet of their choosing that isn’t limited to the games listed above.
Matt Baker: TCU -1.5 at Kansas State
Mark Cooper: Iowa State -3 at Colorado
Seth Emerson: Tennessee -12.5 vs. Arkansas
Sam Khan Jr.: Arizona +1.5 vs. BYU
Austin Mock: South Florida at North Texas under 67.5
Dan Santaromita: Iowa State -3 at Colorado
Daniel Shirley: Georgia Tech -14.5 vs. Virginia Tech
David Ubben: Indiana at Oregon over 54
Chris Vannini: San Diego State -6.5 at Nevada
Picks standings
WriterWeek 6Wild cardsOverall
Sam Khan Jr.
5-3
5-2
35-24-1
Dan Santaromita
6-2
0-7
33-26-1
Matt Baker
2-6
5-2
32-27-1
Chris Vannini
6-2
3-4
31-28-1
David Ubben
6-2
3-4
31-28-1
Austin Mock
3-5
4-3
26-33-1
Seth Emerson
2-6
0-6
25-33-1
Daniel Shirley
4-4
0-4-1
23-34-2
Mark Cooper
2-6
3-4
20-39-1