At FTN, we have a tool called DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against. It uses DVOA-inspired opponent adjustments to more accurately show how favorable or unfavorable each team is for each position in fantasy football. This, however, is not a fantasy football article. It’s a “just football” article, but this tool is still valuable. Fantasy football aside, this tool tells an immediate story of the type of production each team is allowing. And combined with the rest of our StatsHub data, we’re able to learn about the intent of each defense. And nothing is more predictive than intent.
Of course, not every defense has a philosophy they live or die by. Many, if not most, adjust priorities based on the matchup. The select few who don’t, or the select few with strong enough personnel strengths or weaknesses, show up at the extremes of this tool.
The Baltimore Ravens are a perfect example. They’ve been decimated by injuries, but as early as Week 3, we knew they were going to be a great matchup for running backs all season. Take a look at the matchup chart prior to their game against Detroit: