The Nevada football team hosts San Diego State on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game against the Aztecs with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.

San Diego State (4-1, 1-0 MW) at Nevada (1-4, 0-1)

When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m.

Where: Mackay Stadium (capacity 27,000)

Surface: FieldTurf

Weather: High of 59; low of 36; 15 percent chance of rain

TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/105.7 FM (also on the Varsity Network)

Online: None

Betting line: San Diego State favored by 7; total of 41.5

All-time series: San Diego State leads 9-7

Last matchup: Nevada won, 6-0, on Oct. 21, 2023 in San Diego

Three keys to the game

1. Mistake-free quarterback play: The Wolf Pack’s biggest issue this season has been its quarterback play, and more specifically the interceptions stemming from those quarterbacks. Nevada’s 14 turnovers and 10 interceptions lead the nation, with the Wolf Pack rightfully feeling like it is giving away games rather than being beaten by the opposition. Enter Carter Jones, the true freshman quarterback who is expected to get his first college start Saturday after providing a spark for Nevada’s offense in the second half of last week’s game at Fresno State, throwing for two touchdowns, which matched the Wolf Pack’s total in that category in the first 4.5 games combined. Jones must avoid the big mistakes against a SDSU team that has an excellent defense but has not created many turnovers, with just four in five games.

2. More physical team up front: Both of these teams pride themselves with their play in the trenches with San Diego State and Nevada having the MW’s two best defensive lines. The Aztecs hold foes to 3.0 yards per carry with 26 tackles for loss and 13 sacks while the Wolf Pack allows 3.9 yards per carry with 31 tackles for loss and 13 sacks. Both units have been dominant in games and will face above-average offensive lines with SDSU’s starting group weighing an average of 322 pounds and Nevada’s Union showing improvement with the Wolf Pack run game gaining 4.7 yards per rush. These are physical teams who like to bully their foe. We’ll see who the bigger bully is in a matchup of two strong-minded sides.

3. Win the special teams game: Nevada’s special teams have ticked up from their level of performance last season but haven’t provided a lot of explosivity with the return game average. This group has been solid, but Nevada could use a jolt from its special teams against a SDSU program that usually excels there, and is again this year. The Aztecs are known for some trick plays from this unit, with a number of well executed fake field goals last year. Nevada must be prepared. At kicker, the Aztecs have the edge with Gabriel Plascencia making 19 straight field goals, including a 53-yarder last week. Nevada’s Joe McFadden is a strong 9-of-12 on field goal, but his three misses proved crucial (two against Middle Tennessee and one versus Fresno State). Special teams could swing who wins a potential close game.

Prediction

Nevada 24, San Diego State 21: The last time Nevada and SDSU played, the Wolf Pack snapped a school-record 16-game losing skid with a 6-0 win. With Nevada losing 12 straight games against MW foes, could the Aztecs again end a long Wolf Pack skid? Jones, Nevada’s true freshman quarterback, seems to have this team believing after his strong second half at Fresno State, and I don’t think it’s false hope. He draws a tough assignment against a SDSU team that leads the MW in scoring defense and total defense. But the unit hasn’t created a lot of turnovers, a Wolf Pack Achillies heel, and the Aztecs don’t have much film on Jones. They’ve reverted to watching him play in high school, with SDSU head coach Sean Lewis comparing Jones to Vince Young. Jones doesn’t have to play like Young for Nevada to win. He just needs a clean game to give the Wolf Pack a shot. Season record: 4-1 (straight up); 2-3 (against the spread)

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.