Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 6’s game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Los Angeles Rams.

M&T Bank Stadium will thrum on Sunday, rain threatening at 74% and breath fogging above cold rails. Baltimore sits 1-4 with a three-game slide, and the last two arrived by 17+ margins. Los Angeles travels east for a 1 p.m. ET kick as a road favorite at -7, with a total pinned near 44.5. Stakes feel stark because the franchise on the ropes has never dropped three straight by 3+ scores, and the surging visitor just piled up 456 yards in overtime last week. That loss felt gettable because Los Angeles outgained San Francisco 456-407, produced 27 first downs, and still lost on two fumbles. The Rams went 4-of-10 on third down and allowed 333 passing yards, which sharpened their self-scout. Sean McVay owns extra rest and tends to punch the gas after a stumble, so expect fourth-down aggression and layered shots. The mood will crackle early, the air wet and heavy, and every third down will carry consequence. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 6’s game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Los Angeles Rams.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford opens the valve with volume and precision. He leads the league with 1,503 passing yards, completes 66.7%, and has fired 11 touchdowns against two picks. He just stacked 375 and 389 yards in consecutive games, a surge that confirms the arm is live. Los Angeles stretches the field with 8.5 air yards per attempt, and that depth marries perfectly to Baltimore’s allowance of 8.0 air yards per target. Baltimore opponents have completed 69% of passes, which feeds timing throws into chunk gains. The Ravens permit 262.4 passing yards per game and rank last in scoring defense at 35.4 points per game. Wide receiver Puka Nacua paces the league with 52 receptions for 588 yards, and his spatial dexterity stresses zones the instant motion unfurls. Nacua averages 10.4 catches and 117.6 yards per game, with three 100+ outings. He has turned layered in-breakers into chains and shot plays into roars, the kind that roll like thunder across steel risers.

Los Angeles sustains drives because its balance holds. The Rams average 401.8 yards per game, sit second in passing at 289.6, and hum at 6.4 yards per play. Running back Kyren Williams has stacked 368 rushing yards at 4.5 per carry and 73.6 per game, and he adds 16 catches for 118 yards with three receiving scores. Williams has topped 90 total yards in three straight and owns 20 red-zone touches, which stabilize drive-finishing. Los Angeles has averaged 27.3 points over the last four weeks, the profile of a unit ready to surge. Baltimore’s run front sits tenth in yards allowed per game at 93.6, yet it yields 3.5 per carry and has permitted only one 90-yard rusher this season. That cap matters when Derrick Henry needs a threshold to flip the lights, but it also tilts possession toward McVay’s quick-tempo script.

Baltimore’s counterpunch requires clarity and clean pockets. The offense averages 28.2 points per game with 115.6 rushing yards and 196.2 through the air, but the quarterback axis has wobbled. Cooper Rush went 14-of-20 for 179 yards with three interceptions last week, and turnovers erased any rhythm. Running back Derrick Henry has been held to 50 or fewer rushing yards in four straight, even as his career split shouts a truth: the team is 10-1 when he reaches 90+. Wide receiver Zay Flowers owns 28 receptions for 377 yards this season and posted 53 yards on 12 targets last week, the kind of volume that usually lights the slot and the glance. Baltimore’s turnover differential sits at -5, and short fields have multiplied the damage. The Ravens have nine touchdowns of 20+ yards, but sustained efficiency has frayed without Lamar Jackson.

Rams vs. Ravens pick, best bet

Skeptics will point to travel, weather, and recency. Los Angeles flies east for a third time in six weeks, and early windows punish legs. The Rams also conceded 740 total yards across the last two games and gave up 333 passing yards to San Francisco. That is ammunition for a home dog’s case in puddles. The refutation lives in structure. Los Angeles allows just 4.8 yards per play and 21.4 points per game, and its pass defense sits at 215.4 yards per game. Los Angeles owns a +1 turnover margin, while Baltimore’s defense has faced 352 snaps and bled 408.8 yards per game. That includes 146.4 rushing yards allowed per game and eight rushing touchdowns, stress that widens as possessions stack. The Rams close halves with authority too, ranking tied for first in second-half win percentage at 80.0%. When Baltimore must chase, Los Angeles’s edges win the clock and the geometry.

The betting context sharpens the lean. The spread sits at -7, and the Rams are 3-2 against the number. The Ravens are 1-4 against the spread, and every Baltimore game has cleared the total. Los Angeles games have gone over in three of five, but the stronger angle today sits with the side. Los Angeles has covered 16 of its last 22 overall and 7 of its last 8 on the road. Baltimore has allowed 37+ points in four of five, which keeps backdoor math thin. Stafford’s ceiling marries with Baltimore’s air leakage, and the yards-per-play gulf amplifies in steady rain. Lay the touchdown with conviction.

The difference-maker should be running back Kyren Williams. Expect Sean McVay to lean into his 91% Week 5 snap share and the screen game, then hammer misdirection once safeties widen. Williams has topped 90 total yards in three straight, and Baltimore has allowed eight rushing touchdowns this season. Those red-zone touches will materialize as the secondary tilts toward Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, and Williams’s angle routes will sting linebackers stretched by tempo. If the rain lingers, his cut timing and contact balance could decide the middle eight and salt the fourth quarter.

Final score projection: Rams 31, Ravens 20. Rams sure don’t cover often. They will tomorrow, aided by lame juice.

Best bet: Rams -7 (-120) at Ravens

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For a prop lean, Matthew Stafford over 245.5 passing yards. He averages 300.6 per game and has cleared this in four of five. Baltimore has surrendered 13 passing touchdowns and sits at a league-low 3.06% sack rate, gifting clean platforms and full-field reads. The defense allows 262.4 passing yards per game against Los Angeles’s 289.6 passing average, and the 8.5 air-yards design targets Baltimore’s 8.0 air-yards window. Weather note: a ~74% rain chance with light wind around 8–10 mph should tilt Sean McVay toward in-breakers, screens, and rhythm throws, which typically lifts attempts and completions more than it caps yardage. Stafford has recorded 26+ completions in each of his last four as a heavy favorite and 253+ yards in seven straight in that role. The tape says timing, the math says volume, and the market number lags.

Best prop lean: Matthew Stafford o254.5 total passing yards (-110)

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