The main things all good teams do during bye weeks is self-scout. As analysts we can do the same thing. A wise analyst once said that you are what your record says you are, but that kind of sage advice breaks down under scrutiny. The standings say the Houston Texans are 2-3 but do the numbers reflect that of a 2-3 football team? Over a 17 game schedule, these things normally average out. Over five games there can be some variance. Are the Texans overachieving or underachieving?
We will look at the normal numbers as much as we can. Some things like time of possession and opponent penalty numbers are more difficult to come by. However, our crack research staff (namely me) will run these things down. We will look at something lovingly called the Pythagorean method. It has limited utility through only five games, but we will look at it just the same.
Total Points: Texans 108, Opponents 61Total Yards: Texans 1572. Opponents 1329Rushing Yards: Texans 133/581, Opponents 116/453Passing Yards: Texans 991, Opponents 876Sacks: Texans 12, Opponents 12Penalties: Texans 34/267, Opponents 38/259Turnovers: Texans 5, Opponents 6Third Down: Texans 35.0%, Opponents 36.1%Time of Possession: Texans 31:34. Opponents 28:26
I seriously doubt Pythagoras was a sports fan, but if he were then he would look at the point differential and ask how in the hell the Texans are a losing football team. The methodology would have the team somewhere between 3-2 and 4-1 on the season. Given the turnover ratio I would go ahead and settle on 3-2. I’m sure we would feel pretty different about this team if they were 3-2. They would be one game back in the loss column to the Colts and they likely would be ahead of the Jaguars if that win came against them.
Of course, we will get to specifics in the good, bad, and ugly, but suffice it to say the Texans are on the positive end on most of these numbers. Being +1 on turnover ratio looks ho-hum, but it actually isn’t on the offense. Averaging one turnover per game is actually not bad. In nearly every category, they are either running even or are ahead of their opponents.
The Texans aren’t just first in points allowed. They are lapping the field. Even before you add the week 6 numbers, they have a 23 point margin on second place. Those are just stupid numbers and made even more stupid by the fact that the Texans are somehow a losing team. If there is one chink in the armor, it is that they have taken it away only six times.
There really is no rhyme of reason for that. They are getting pressure on the quarterback. They are forcing bad throws and they are hitting hard. Those three things usually lead to turnovers and I suspect they will before the end of the season. Not coincidentally, I suspect that is when some of those close games will start going the other way.
The ten points allowed in the last two games happen to coincide with cutting C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Coincidence I’m sure. They should be getting Jimmie Ward back soon for secondary depth. Avoiding the big play has been the key the last two weeks and they will be put to the test with many of their remaining opponents. If they keep allowing 20 points or less we should be looking at a winning Texans team at the end of the season.
The offense has been bad overall. Yes, they dominated against the Ravens and they looked good in the fourth quarter against the Titans. Nick Caley has done enough to save his job over the last two weeks, but very little comes easily for this offense. Even Sunday’s big win did not feature any big chunk plays to speak of. Sure enough, according to Stats Muse, they rank in the bottom quarter of the NFL in 20 yard plays.
One of the underrated things Bobby Slowik did in 2023 was engineer plays where receivers could get yards after the catch. C.J. Stroud helped in that regard by putting the ball in spots where receivers could take it and run. Those plays have been fewer and further between this season. Some of those things can be put on Stroud checking it down more often and on balance that is a good thing.
Sometimes you can do both if the scheme allows you to. Caley’s challenge from here on out will be to unlock more of those chunk plays without exposing Stroud to more damage. I don’t envy him in this regard. It might seem like a daunting task, but other NFL teams have managed to figure out with weak offensive lines. Some shorter fields will help in the points department, but an extra big play or two per game would move them from below average to average. Average might be enough with this defense.
There are teams that open up holes so big a Buick could drive through them. The Texans aren’t one of those teams. Last season, Joe Mixon made enough people miss that he was often able to get positive yards out of nothing. Nick Chubb and Woody Marks are good complementary backs at this point in their respective careers. I keep harping on this, but it is one thing for the team not to admit how serious Mixon’s injury is. Heck, we still don’t know for sure how serious that injury is or what that injury even is. He might be missing a foot. We really have no earthly clue because the team isn’t answering questions and he has not been around the team.
None of that matters. They can play that clandestine spy stuff all they want with the media. They themselves knew. They had to have known. If they didn’t know in July then they knew in August. They definitely know now. This is a winning football team. They are playing winning football overall. If this were a season where they were destined for a top ten overall pick I’d just go with what they have. This team has championship aspirations or could.
The best general managers are the ones that are honest with themselves about what their team has. Dameon Pierce ain’t it and he hasn’t been it for nearly three years. Dare Ogunbowale is definitely a good special teams player. He may even be a great special teams player. He ain’t it on offense. I maintain that is something you knew going into camp, but I can set that aside for now. You definitely knew in camp that was the case. You also knew that Chubb wasn’t the 2022 Chubb. You knew Marks might be good someday, but that day is probably not here yet. You knew all of this and did nothing.
They still have until November 4th to rectify this. It will be more costly to do it now and there is a risk a new back won’t integrate well mid-season. Breece Hall is certainly available now since the Jets are 0-6. Alvin Kamara might be available since the Saints are 1-5. There will be other players on bad teams that might not have as big a name. Getting a bell cow back is likely unrealistic, but getting one capable of being a part of a running back by committee is certainly plausible. As it stands, you are a Woody Marks or Nick Chubb injury away from being in serious trouble.