The 4-1 (2-1 AFC East) Buffalo Bills are once again playing in primetime in Week 6, as they take on the Falcons in Atlanta after losing to the Patriots last Sunday night.

The Falcons (2-2, 0-2) started off 1-2, with one of those losses coming in a disastrous Week 3 showing vs. Carolina, but they responded with an impressive win over the Commanders in Week 4, then spent last week on the bye.

Second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has been inconsistent so far this season, but at his best (in a close Week 1 loss to the Bucs and last week’s win over Washington), he and the Falcons have looked like contenders in the NFC South.

Despite last week’s upset loss to the Patriots at home, the Bills remain the clear favorites to win Super Bowl 60.

Sean McDermott’s team is listed at exactly 5-to-1 at several sportsbooks, including DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365. The Bills are listed between +200 and +240, depending where you look, to win the AFC. For context, it’s worth noting that current NFC betting favorites Green Bay and Detroit are both longer than +400 in most places.

How To Watch Bills vs. FalconsKickoff: 7:15 p.m. ETTV: ESPNBills vs. Falcons Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline, TotalBills vs. Falcons Betting Analysis, Injury News

Neither of these teams will be missing more than a few starters tonight. There are, however, a few key absences worth noting.

Buffalo Bills Latest Injury News, Analysis (October 13)

One of the top players on the Buffalo defense, linebacker Matt Milano, will remain on the sidelines this week due to a pectoral muscle injury. The Bills will have fellow linebacker Dorian Strong back in the mix tonight after he missed the Patriots game.

The Bills also figure to get a huge boost from Ed Oliver’s return. The seventh-year DT was dominant in Buffalo’s comeback win over the Ravens back in Week 1, with three tackles for loss, a sack and a forced fumble. Tonight will be his first game back in the lineup. Assuming he is 100 percent, the Buffalo run D could take a huge step forward. This unit allowed the Dolphins (130 yards on 25 carries), Saints (189 yards on 34 carries) and (to a lesser extent) the Patriots (22 carries for 71 yards) to have big games on the ground the last three weeks.

Two other names on the injury report for Buffalo are tight end Dalton Kincaid (oblique, questionable) and wide receiver/kick returner Curtis Samuel (neck/ribs, questionable). Kincaid has been one of Josh Allen’s top targets through three games, making his possible absence a massive storyline

Atlanta Falcons Latest Injury News, Analysis (October 13)

Starting wide receiver Darnell Mooney (hamstring) has been ruled out, and starting nickel Billy Bowman Jr. (knee, hamstring) is listed as questionable. Otherwise, the players for Atlanta who are questionable or out are all backups.

Best Bills vs. Falcons Player Prop BetsATL RB Bijan Robinson 16+ Rush Attempts (+101 at DraftKings)

Buffalo’s run D help OK against the Jets in Week 2 and the Patriots last week, but this unit has had more bad days than good ones this season. Now, the Bills take on Bijan Robinson, the best running back they’ve seen since Week 1.

Atlanta’s dynamic third-year back is averaging 4.9 yards per carry despite a brutal day in Week 1 (12 carries for just 24 yards against the Buccaneers). Coming off an early-season bye, I don’t think you can go wrong taking his rushing attempts, rushing yards, receiving yards — or really any Robinson prop. In fact, I also love “Robinson to record a 20+ yard reception (+210 at FanDuel).”

Remember, in addition to his 69-yard catch-and-run vs. Washington two weeks ago, he also had a 25-yard catch vs. Carolina and a 50-yard reception vs. Tampa Bay in Week 1. Robinson has always been an effective receiver out of the backfield (8.7 ypc on 137 career catches). He’s ascended to a new level early this year, with an average of 15 yards per catch and 11.7 yards per target on just under 6 targets per game. Even against a defense that has limited opposing running backs’ success through the air, I’m bullish on Robinson making noise in the passing game.

BUF TE Dawson Knox over his total receptions prop*

With Kincaid possibly on the sideline — and potentially limited even if he’s able to suit up — this could be a great spot for his backup, Dawson Knox. Buffalo’s second tight end has been on the field for more than half of his team’s snaps, an encouraging sign amid Kincaid’s hot start to the year. Knox only has six catches through five games, but four of them were good for first downs.

*Note: This is the rare case where we recommend targeting a player whose prop markets are not currently available. Once Kincaid’s status is announced, you’ll be able to bet on Knox’s catches and receiving yards, and I recommend taking him to go over his receptions as long as that number is listed at 4 or 5.

Bills vs. Falcons Prediction, Best Bets

The Bills’ status as Super Bowl favorites makes sense to me given what we’ve seen from the AFC’s other contenders. They failed to cover as a heavy favorite each of the last three weeks, though.

Tonight, I expect them to bounce back with a win, but not quite cover against a dangerous Atlanta team. The Falcons are coming off of easily the best performance Michael Penix Jr.’s career, followed by a bye week, and I expect a good performance from them at home.

We haven’t seen many betting favorites lose this weekend since the Giants beat the Eagles on Thursday night, but a handful — including the Chargers, Jets, Colts and Packers — failed to cover, and I expect Buffalo to join that list tonight.

Best bets:

Falcons +4.5 (best odds: -112 at DraftKings)

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