The last couple of weeks, my system based on FTN’s DVOA ratings has loved the favorites. The actual results didn’t come down quite the same way. This week, we’re going with a number of teams on the road with a couple of underdogs included. Note that while I’m picking based on lines here, all of these picks are on small lines so you might be better just going with moneylines.

(All odds are per BetMGM.)

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Over 44

The Rams are not only third in offensive DVOA this season; they’re also third with the fastest pace on offense, running more plays than most teams. The Jaguars also have an above-average pace to go with an average offensive efficiency. Look for the Jaguars to run on a Rams offense that’s stronger against the pass.

Miami Dolphins +2 at Cleveland Browns

I’ve wrote last week about how offense is more predictive and consistent than defense. Then the Dallas Cowboys defense went out against Carolina and played terribly yet again. But the general proposition still applies over the long term. The Browns defense is a good example: it was near the top of the league in 2023, near the bottom in 2024, and it’s back to being good again in 2025. Miami’s defense is terrible so far in 2025. But it’s easier to count on offense than defense, and the Miami offense ranks 20th while the Cleveland offense is 31st. That makes the Dolphins a good underdog pick on the road.

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Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 at Minnesota Vikings

Here’s a game where we’re counting on the longer-term trends including the information we had before the season. The Eagles defense was the best in the NFL last year. This year it ranks 18th in DVOA. The truth of how good they’ll be over the full season is probably somewhere in the middle, but that makes the Eagles a better bet than their performance so far this season would otherwise suggest. And even using this season’s numbers, the Eagles (15th in overall DVOA) are ahead of the Vikings (20th in overall DVOA).

Indianapolis Colts +1.5 at Los Angeles Chargers

Each week, I write about how it’s important to incorporate our preseason prior information even late into the NFL season. This game is counterintuitive, because I think that the oddsmakers are including too much preseason prior information. This year, the Colts have been massively better than the Chargers. The Colts are the No. 1 offense and the No. 2 team in DVOA overall, trailing only the Seahawks. The Chargers are 19th on offense and 16th overall. I know this game is in Los Angeles, but we can get the Colts and points? I’ll take it.

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Atlanta Falcons +2.5 at San Francisco 49ers

The Falcons moved up to 10th in DVOA last week including the surprise No. 1 defense of the year so far. The 49ers are just 22nd in DVOA despite a 4-2 record, one of the lowest-rated 4-2 teams we’ve measured since 1978. That’s before we even try to account for the 49ers injury report. Fred Warner is the best off-ball linebacker in the NFL; usually off-ball linebacker doesn’t move the statistical needle, but that’s a huge loss for that defense. And while Mac Jones has played well as a backup quarterback, he hasn’t played as well as Brock Purdy, and we still don’t know if Purdy will be back on the field this week.