We start the second half of the regular season with three head-to-head matchups involving ranked SEC teams and none from the Big Ten, which provided us with a must-watch top-10 showdown last week between Indiana and Oregon.
There’s a lot of football left to be played before the College Football Playoff field is set, but The Athletic’s projected field includes five SEC teams, three Big Ten teams, Notre Dame, the ACC champion, the Big 12 champion and the Group of 5 representative.
As it stands, only five of the teams I predicted to make the field in the preseason have better than a 20 percent shot of making it. But enough about my horrific picks. (By the way, I went 6-3 last week straight up to improve to 39-25 for the season.)
Eleven unbeatens remain, and I have at least three stumbling this week. We start our Week 8 selections there inside our stat-stuffer picks.
Most passing yards
Haynes King has rightfully received a lot of love for helping Georgia Tech to a 6-0 start and a No. 12 ranking in the AP poll, but Duke’s Darian Mensah has nearly doubled King’s yardage output as a passer. Mensah and King — Nos. 1 and 2 in the ACC in total offense — go head-to-head Saturday at Duke. The Blue Devils have won three conference games in a row, each decisively, since their loss at Mensah’s old school, Tulane, and coach Manny Diaz has had a bye week to prepare to host the Yellow Jackets. Duke, a 2.5-point favorite, wins the turnover battle (plus-two) and Mensah throws for 350-plus yards in the Blue Devils’ overtime win.
Most rushing yards
UNLV’s Jai’Den Thomas and Boise State’s Dylan Riley rank third and sixth among FBS rushers in yards after contact, generating nearly six per carry, according to TrueMedia. The difference in Saturday afternoon’s showdown on the blue turf is that Boise State’s defense is much better than UNLV’s. The Rebels have gotten off to a 6-0 start thanks in large part to a plus-nine turnover margin. Riley rushes for 150-plus yards and one touchdown, and the Broncos win by a touchdown (the spread is 10.5) to hand Dan Mullen his first loss at UNLV.
Most receiving yards
Clemson’s Bryant Wesco Jr. is one of only eight receivers from Power 4 schools with at least three 100-yard receiving games this season. He ranks 11th nationally in receiving yards per game and figures to play a big role when SMU and Clemson meet in a rematch of last year’s ACC Championship Game on Saturday in Death Valley. SMU’s pass defense ranks 135th in the nation, and in a game in which both capable quarterbacks will be flinging it, I’m counting on Wesco to be productive. He catches seven passes for 150-plus yards and a score, and Clemson wins by a touchdown but doesn’t cover the 9.5-point spread.
Bryant Wesco Jr. keeps stacking 100-yard games 💥
5 receptions, 106 yards, and a score in Clemson’s win over Boston College 🐅@ClemsonFB | @ClemsonTigers | #ALLIN | @DrPepper pic.twitter.com/DMMCQyipFB
— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) October 12, 2025
Five big gamesLouisville at No. 2 Miami (-14)
The Hurricanes won a 52-45 shootout last season at Louisville but are much improved defensively for Friday night’s battle for the Schnellenberger Trophy. The key matchup here will be the Cardinals pass rush (No. 2 in pressure rate, per Pro Football Focus) against Miami’s offensive line (No. 1 in lowest pressure rate allowed). Louisville figures to get to QB Carson Beck more than others have (he’s been sacked four times), but in the end, freshman Malachi Toney (90-plus receiving yards, one TD) and Rueben Bain Jr. (two-plus sacks) prove to be the difference in a one-score Canes win.
No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt (-2.5)
The Commodores haven’t beaten LSU since 1990 but enter Saturday’s game in Nashville as a slight favorite because the Tigers offense has been underwhelming, averaging just 19 points per game against Power 4 opponents, with a rushing attack that ranks 113th nationally. The reality is that for Vanderbilt to keep its Playoff hopes alive, it needs to keep the heat off Diego Pavia. The Commodores quarterbacks have been pressured on 32.3 percent of their dropbacks (89th) despite being sacked only four times. LSU sacks Pavia three times and gets the final word in an overtime victory.
Vanderbilt has played 77 games vs top 10 teams since 1978…
The LSU game Saturday will be the 1st time the Commodores have been favored in one of those games.
— Cole Cubelic (@colecubelic) October 14, 2025
No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 9 Georgia (-7)
Kirby Smart is 38-16 against ranked teams in his career, and Lane Kiffin is 12-24, including last year’s upset of the then-No. 2 Bulldogs. One eye-opening stat heading into this matchup in Athens: Georgia ranks 114th in pressure rate (27.6 percent of dropbacks), a drastic drop compared to Smart’s great defenses of the past. That’s why the Rebels have a shot to win this game with elusive quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. But I’m picking the Bulldogs to win by a field goal because they’re at home, where they give up only 12.8 points per game.
No. 20 USC at No. 13 Notre Dame (-9.5)
The Trojans are coming off an impressive home win over Michigan, but they lost leading rusher Waymond Jordan and backup Eli Sanders to injury in the game. Notre Dame, meanwhile, lost center Ashton Craig to a season-ending injury last week. The Irish have played much better defensively the last two weeks in wins over Boise State and NC State — just in time to face what is likely to be their last ranked opponent on the schedule. After a tight first half, CJ Carr throws for over 150 yards and two touchdowns in the second half, and the Irish rally to win a tight one.
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama (-8.5)
Ty Simpson and Joey Aguilar are two of the four highest-rated passers in the SEC, but only one of them has a good defense backing him up. Thanks to a 300-yard passing night from Simpson, Kalen DeBoer improves to 19-3 all-time against ranked opponents, and Bama covers the spread.
Upset alertNo. 23 Utah (-3.5) at No. 15 BYU
It’s not often a 6-0 team is an underdog at home to a team that is ranked lower in the polls, but the Cougars find themselves in that spot coming off an overtime road win at Arizona against a Utah team that dominated defending Big 12 champion Arizona State last week. The Utes rank third nationally in pressure rate and will put Cougars freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier in uncomfortable spots. But BYU can play defense, too. Plus, running back LJ Martin is averaging 4.41 yards after contact, the third most among backs with at least 100 carries. Martin runs for 90-plus yards and the winning score in an overtime thriller.
Reader predictions
Congratulations to the readers who hit, and condolences to those who did not.
The hits
Brian: “Indiana shocks the world and beats Oregon by 10. Curt Cignetti again says, ‘Google me.’”
Chief: “Ahmad Hardy doesn’t go over 100 yards vs. Alabama.”
Jacob: “Pitt beats FSU.”
Jeff M.: “Freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel will pass for over 250 yards and three TDs as Pitt upsets Florida State by 7.”
The misses
Dee: “Illinois upsets Ohio State, and Luke Altmyer throws four touchdowns.”
David: “Oklahoma, with or without John Mateer, defeats Texas, and their defense harasses Arch Manning.”
Henry: “South Carolina shocks the world by beating LSU by over 20 and going over 35 points.”
Brian: “Oregon State gets off the schneid as the home dogs against Wake Forest: 28-20.”
Carter: “The Dawgs come into Jordan-Hare and leave with tucked tails, as Jackson Arnold has a resurgence game with three scores and 250+ through the air.”
Larry: “Justice Haynes and Bryce Underwood combine for 300-plus rushing yards as Michigan outlasts USC’s fourth-quarter efforts and gets to 5-1, keeping CFP hopes afloat.”
Cory: “Kansas gives Texas Tech a scare, but a last-second FG allows the Red Raiders to avoid overtime.”
Jackson P.: “NC State beats the Irish 45-41 in South Bend.”
CJ: “Although not playing a game this week, North Carolina continues its troubles as Bill Belichick checks out and leaves them scrambling for a new coach as they prepare for Cal.”
Unconfirmed
Adam C.: “Hugh Freeze shoots a 79 at Auburn University Club on Sunday morning.”
Week 7 report card
Is there any chance we could get Cignetti to help me with my picks going forward?
The good: I correctly forecasted Alabama to win by 3 points at Missouri and for Ty Simpson to outduel Beau Pribula, and I also predicted South Florida to win at previously unbeaten North Texas by double-digits with a monster game from quarterback Byrum Brown.
The bad: I incorrectly predicted a tight Oregon win over Indiana and put too much faith in the Florida defense doing enough to pull the upset at Texas A&M.
Just missed: I said Ohio State would cover the 14.5-point spread at Illinois because the Buckeyes would sack Luke Altmyer five times. The Buckeyes won by 18 but sacked Altmyer only four times.