Game location: LaVell Edwards Stadium/Provo, UT

Game time/channel: Saturday, October 18, 5:00pm PT/8:00pm ET (FOX)

Matchup History: 59-33-4 (Utah)

BYU has not faced any opponent in their history more than the Utes. In 96 official matchups, the Utes own the edge.

Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham (21st season)

Utah is back, plain and simple. After an abysmal opening season in the Big 12 last year where they missed a bowl, the Utes are back in the Top 25 and back in conference championship contention. Their lone loss is to the best team in the conference and No. 7 in the country, Texas Tech. They have basically obliterated everyone else. They have won their two conference games by a combined score of 90-24. Most recently, they crushed a ranked Arizona State team at home while they were missing their star quarterback, Sam Leavitt. They sit at 5-1 and ranked No. 23 in the AP poll. They look like a real threat in the Big 12 and possible College Football Playoff material.

Make no mistake- the Utes offense runs completely through quarterback Devon Dampier. Utah OC Jason Beck designed it that way, for good reason. Dampier is one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the country. Dampier has 11 passing touchdowns against three interceptions. He is most dangerous with his legs. There is only one quarterback in the Big 12 with more rushing attempts among quarterbacks than Dampier, and that’s BYU’s own Bear Bachmeier. However, he leads the conference in rushing yards from a quarterback. They want to run the football, as shown by being eighth in all the FBS in rushing yards per game.

It’s quite obvious what Utah’s offense is- let Dampier create with his legs and don’t take too many risks downfield. Dampier ranks 10th in the conference in “average depth of target,” meaning he doesn’t attempt many passes downfield. Utah’s offense converts third downs at around 60%, and they are nearly automatic in the red zone. If the Cougars allow that to happen on Saturday, it’s going to end poorly for the home team.

The biggest test of this entire game will be BYU’s defensive line facing one of the best offensive lines in football at Utah. Spencer Fano is going to be the first right tackle taken the in the NFL Draft next spring. BYU’s edge rushers Viliami Po’uha, Hunter Clegg, Bodie Schoonover, and company need to get their fair share of wins against this stout line to rush Dampier. Receiver Ryan Davis and tight end Dallen Bentley are Dampier’s favorite targets that BYU’s linebackers and defensive backs need to lock up.

The biggest development for BYU is that star linebacker Jack Kelly will be back after missing the Arizona game with an injury. He will likely be part of the group that is keeping a keen eye on Dampier to make sure he doesn’t kill the Cougars with his legs.

These teams are similar in the fact that their offense runs through their quarterback, even in the run game. However, a distinct advantage for the Cougars is running back LJ Martin. He leads the Big 12 with 650 rushing yards. Against FBS teams, BYU is 28th in rushing yards per game. Bachmeier certainly is heavily involved as well. When the Arizona game went down to the wire, Bachmeier took it over with his legs. He ran the ball 22 times against the Wildcats. If BYU can take advantage against Utah’s vulnerable run defense (76th in FBS), they can control the clock and keep Dampier and company on the sidelines.

As is customary if a team is effective in running the ball, that will open lanes for the passing attack. Chase Roberts is one of the best receivers in the conference. If BYU is going to land a few haymakers in the passing game, Roberts will likely be involved. Parker Kingston is coming off of back-to-back 100-yard games.

The biggest X-factor could be Carsen Ryan, the tight end. If you believe in revenge games, Ryan is due for one against a team that did not use him very much in the passing game when he was a Ute last year. Ryan has already exceeded his receiving numbers at BYU from his days with Utah. He wasn’t targeted in the Arizona game. This is a good time for BYU OC Aaron Roderick to target Ryan early and often for a few revenge yards against his old team.

As on the other side of the ball, the same is true with BYU’s offensive line. They need to gameplan around stopping former Cougar John Henry Daley from having his own revenge game. He is second in the conference with 8.0 sacks after having a hard time cracking the depth chart at BYU in 2023. If he gets his paws on Bachmeier over and over, it’s going to be a long night for the Cougar offense.

Plus, BYU needs to clean up the turnovers. The last two games have been messy. If they turn the ball over like that against this Utah team, they will lose.

The fact that this game is in Provo is certainly in BYU’s favor. The crowd will be electric, with this being one of the biggest home games in years. It’s the first time the two teams have met in Provo since 2021. That only gets you so far. BYU needs to be positive in the turnover margin to win. Rivalry games are often decided by turnovers.

BYU needs to control the clock and the tempo of the game with their ground attack. Jay Hill needs to scheme up ways to rush Dampier but do so smartly, without creating run lanes for him. If BYU can run the ball well, get a turnover or two on defense, and not let Dampier run wild, the Cougars should win.

Easier said than done against a team that seems to be getting better each week and is frothing at the mouth seeking revenge after how last year’s game ended.

Prediction: Utah 27, BYU 24