One of the occasional criticisms of DVOA is that it values consistent, efficient play over the exciting, highlight-reel play. “DVOA would have hated Barry Sanders,” “DVOA overrates Andy Reid teams,” and so on and so forth. This is, and always has been at best, an exaggeration – we like boom and bust players just fine so long as they’re booming, Brett Favre rating higher than Jameis Winston rating higher than Anthony Richardson Sr. and all that. While consistently getting solid gains is more predictive than sprinkling in a few huge plays alongside bad ones, we do love us a good deep ball or bruising, explosive run.
And this has very much been the year of the explosive play. Three quarterbacks have thrown more than 20 explosive pass plays this season – Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is a top-level MVP contender, Darnold leads the league in passing DVOA and Stafford (or whoever the clone is playing quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams) looks to be suffering no ill-effects from his stint in a Wellness Pod. Mayfield also happens to be second in the league in explosive run percentage behind only Lamar Jackson as well, as anyone who saw his miracle scramble against San Francisco last week can attest. That’s a big reason behind the buzz behind Mayfield’s MVP candidacy, above and beyond the stats or performance with so many receivers injured – he’s fun! Big plays are fun!
So let’s dive into StatsHub and find these fun teams. We define an explosive pass as one that gains 20 or more yards, and an explosive run as one that picks up at least 10. Which teams are generating these huge plays most frequently? Which are the best at stopping them? Let’s put aside efficiency for once and just look at those huge chunk plays.
Offensive Explosive Plays, Weeks 1-6
Team
Passes
Exp%
Runs
Exp%
Total
Exp%
BAL
16
9.8%
25
17.6%
41
13.4%
LAR
28
13.4%
19
13.0%
47
13.2%
CHI
18
11.1%
18
13.3%
36
12.1%
SEA
24
14.6%
16
9.5%
40
12.0%
TB
24
12.3%
17
10.4%
41
11.5%
MIN
16
11.0%
14
11.8%
30
11.3%
WAS
13
7.6%
25
15.2%
38
11.3%
BUF
20
11.1%
21
11.3%
41
11.2%
ATL
16
9.8%
20
12.6%
36
11.1%
LV
19
10.2%
19
12.0%
38
11.0%
GB
18
12.2%
15
9.7%
33
11.0%
IND
17
9.3%
21
12.1%
38
10.7%
KC
17
8.0%
22
14.3%
39
10.6%
PIT
15
10.7%
12
9.7%
27
10.2%
NYJ
9
5.3%
25
15.2%
34
10.2%
LAC
18
8.2%
19
13.2%
37
10.2%
Team
Passes
Exp%
Runs
Exp%
Total
Exp%
HOU
15
10.1%
13
9.8%
28
10.0%
PHI
15
8.7%
18
11.1%
33
9.9%
NE
20
11.1%
13
8.2%
33
9.8%
NYG
16
8.1%
20
11.1%
36
9.5%
DET
18
10.3%
15
8.6%
33
9.4%
DEN
13
6.3%
22
13.1%
35
9.4%
CAR
16
7.8%
19
11.0%
35
9.3%
DAL
20
8.5%
14
9.7%
34
9.0%
TEN
15
7.4%
13
10.2%
28
8.5%
ARI
14
6.8%
16
10.9%
30
8.5%
JAX
16
7.5%
15
9.4%
31
8.3%
MIA
12
6.3%
13
11.0%
25
8.1%
SF
21
8.7%
9
5.6%
30
7.5%
NO
8
3.9%
18
10.8%
26
7.0%
CLE
11
4.4%
11
7.8%
22
5.6%
CIN
10
4.9%
7
6.5%
17
5.4%
Surprised to see Baltimore on top of the list, despite their 1-5 start and -6.8% offensive DVOA? I was too, and that perhaps goes to show you why simply “producing explosive plays” isn’t the end-all and be-all of offensive analysis. There’s a 0.45 correlation between explosive play rate and offensive DVOA so it’s certainly not nothing, and good teams generally create explosive plays, but it’s less than the 0.79 correlation between success rate and DVOA. Avoiding bad plays, generally, tells us more about a team than hitting spectacular ones, and the Ravens are just 17th in success rate.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) leaps over Green Bay Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander (23) during the first half of a NFL football preseason game, Thursday, Aug. 15, 2019, in Baltimore. The play was called back on a penalty on the Ravens. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)
But when they do hit, they hit, especially in the running game. Lamar Jackson’s 47.6% explosive run rate is the highest in the league, while Derrick Henry is still hanging in the top 10 among running backs at 13.6%. Maybe that’s part of the problem, though – the Ravens are generating explosive running plays at a high rate, but they’ve often found themselves trailing at the end of games and need to rely on the pass. They’re just 13th in explosive pass rate, down from third (11.7%) a year ago. A powerful, bruising run game that picks up yards in huge chunks is great early or when you’re protecting a lead, not so much when you’re trying to erase a deficit. And when you take the threat of Lamar running the ball out of the equation, the entire offense sort of falls apart. Since Jackson has been out, Baltimore’s explosive run rate has dropped from 22.1% to 10.7%, while their passing rate has plummeted from 12.8% to a miniscule 3.7%. Get well soon, Lamar.
Also get well soon, Brock Purdy. Despite playing through a turf toe injury for six of his eight quarters so far, Purdy leads the league with a 15.1% explosive pass rate. While the Mac Jones story has been fun, the 49ers explosive pass rate falls from Purdy’s 15.1% to Jones’ 6.0% with the backup in. It’s not a small sample size blip, either. The 49ers led the league in explosive pass rate in 2023 (15.3%) and 2024 (12.4%), so they’ve succeeded in the fully healthy, YAC-focused seasons and the injury-plagued, grip-it-and-rip-it style. He’s especially needed with the 49ers being stone-dead last in explosive rush percentage, as they have not been able to get Christian McCaffrey loose on the ground yet. Rushing him back this week with his turf toe may not be the wisest plan, but perhaps Week 8 will see both teams get their stars back, and not a moment too soon.
Second behind Purdy – and with a larger sample size – is Sam Darnold. I will fully admit I had my doubts about Darnold coming into the year, thinking that his success on deep passing would be left with Justin Jefferson in Minnesota. Instead, he’s picked up pretty much where he left off, connecting with Jaxon Smith-Njigba over and over again – to the point where that’s almost the entire Seattle offense. JSN has 13 explosive receptions, three ahead of George Pickens for most in the league. You give Darnold time, and he can hit these deep threats in stride for huge plays – his struggles have always been pressure related, and Seattle’s offensive line is doing better than I expected at keeping him upright. I still think this is more the receivers than it is Darnold, but if you end up quarterbacking for the league leader in explosive receptions two years in a row (Jefferson had 28 in 2024)? At some point, you have to give Darnold a healthy chunk of respect for that. He throws the best deep ball in the NFL right now, and so he’s established himself as a good starting option. What a crazy world.
FOXBOROUGH, MA – AUGUST 08: Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Hartman (15) hands off to Washington Commanders running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt (32) during the NFL preseason game between Washington Commanders and New England Patriots on August 8, 2025, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. (Photo by M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire)
The highest explosive rate for a running back belongs to Jacory Croskey-Merritt at 16.7%; he’s five behind Jonathan Taylor for most explosive rushes period because he’s still working his way into a bell cow role, but I don’t expect he’ll have any trouble getting the ball much going forward. Last year’s leader, however? Not doing so well. Saquon Barkley has fallen from 13.3% last season to 11.6% this year. That’s still good for 15th among running backs, but the Eagles’ offensive identity isn’t based around having the 15th-most explosive back in the league. The Eagles falling to 14th in explosive run rate kind of reflects the problems with the Eagles’ offense as a whole right now; they just aren’t imposing their will on teams the same way they did a year ago. Barkley has fallen from 3.2 to 2.6 win yards per carry – yards after contact or a missed tackle – and from 3.0 to 1.0 yards before contact. He’s still good, don’t get me wrong, but last year was a career year with a near-perfect offensive line, and those haven’t appeared again in 2025.
Let’s quickly take a look at the defensive side of the ball as well – which teams stop explosive plays in their tracks?
Defensive Explosive Plays, Weeks 1-6
Team
Passes
Exp%
Runs
Exp%
Total
Exp%
GB
6
3.0%
7
6.9%
13
4.3%
DEN
13
6.9%
6
4.3%
19
5.8%
SEA
19
8.4%
5
3.5%
24
6.5%
ATL
8
6.2%
10
8.5%
18
7.3%
LAR
13
6.3%
16
9.4%
29
7.7%
LV
16
8.0%
14
9.9%
30
8.7%
SF
18
9.3%
13
8.2%
31
8.8%
BAL
21
9.7%
15
8.4%
36
9.1%
JAX
22
9.8%
11
8.3%
33
9.2%
CLE
19
11.2%
11
7.1%
30
9.3%
HOU
14
9.2%
11
9.5%
25
9.3%
NO
15
8.5%
18
10.1%
33
9.3%
CAR
17
9.1%
14
10.1%
31
9.5%
PIT
15
7.9%
16
11.9%
31
9.6%
IND
18
8.2%
16
11.9%
34
9.6%
TB
20
10.1%
13
9.0%
33
9.6%
Team
Passes
Exp%
Runs
Exp%
Total
Exp%
PHI
15
7.5%
22
12.7%
37
9.9%
ARI
18
7.6%
20
13.6%
38
9.9%
NYJ
20
11.8%
15
8.2%
35
9.9%
MIN
8
5.8%
21
14.3%
29
10.2%
NE
24
13.2%
10
6.9%
34
10.4%
NYG
14
6.3%
25
16.6%
39
10.4%
TEN
17
9.4%
21
11.7%
38
10.6%
CIN
25
12.3%
17
9.1%
42
10.8%
WAS
19
10.3%
20
11.6%
39
10.9%
KC
16
9.1%
20
13.2%
36
11.0%
DET
18
9.6%
20
14.0%
38
11.5%
LAC
14
7.5%
25
16.9%
39
11.6%
DAL
21
10.2%
27
14.8%
48
12.3%
CHI
14
10.0%
22
15.9%
36
12.9%
MIA
16
9.1%
32
17.7%
48
13.5%
BUF
15
9.1%
31
19.0%
46
14.0%
There’s a 0.64 correlation between explosive play rate and defensive DVOA, which is actually ever-so-slightly stronger than the 0.63 correlation between DVOA and success rate. I don’t have an immediate, obvious explanation for that, other than it being really bad to give up huge plays. That’s something to check on more in the offseason, to make sure this isn’t just a six-week blip, but so far, stopping big plays has been more relevant than creating them.
And no one’s stopped big plays more than the Packers have this season, a big part of why they’re second in defensive DVOA despite only having two takeaways. Atlanta is first in DVOA for the first time since realignment, but a lot of that is based around their eight takeaways. Remove all interceptions and forced fumbles from the data, and the Packers rise to the top, one of five teams to still have better-than-average DVOA even without turnovers. The Falcons do stay in third, with the Broncos, Seahawks and Rams rounding out the top five. And wouldn’t you know it? That’s the same top five as the explosive plays allowed list! In other words, if you’re not going to stop big plays, you better find a way to generate some turnovers.
Down at the very bottom of the list we find the Buffalo Bills, and most of that is because of their last-ranked rush defense. Yes, having Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in your sample there doesn’t help, and the Bills have faced a murder’s row of rushing talent his year, but Kendre Miller had three explosive runs against them. Spencer Rattler had two. Ollie Gordon II, Malik Washington, TreVeyon Henderson – the Patriots are the only opponent the Bills have held to under a 12% explosive run rate. They’ve got to patch that up, and quick, because they can’t win a shootout every week.