Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 7’s game between the Bears and Saints on Sunday.

With 1/3 of the NFL regular season in the books, teams have settled into an identity at this point. For the Chicago Bears (3-2), an up-and-coming offense and tenacity at the end of close games shines. For the New Orleans Saints (1-5), it’s a different story as the team undergoes the early stages of a rebuild but looks to remain competitive with plenty of veterans. In Week 7, these teams clash in the Windy City.

Read up on this Bears vs. Saints matchup with a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bears vs. Saints prediction, preview

Chicago Bears

For the first time in a while, vibes around the football team are pretty high in Chicago. The Bears have a winning record and are well-positioned to add another W this week against a struggling franchise. The offense is clicking under Ben Johnson with 25.2 points and 338.6 yards per game, both top-14 marks, and they’re converting third downs at the eighth-best rate as well. The rushing attack hasn’t exactly been stellar until last week, but Caleb Williams has led a passing attack that borders on one of the league’s 10 best. He’s averaged a hair over 230 yards a game with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions, due in no small part to the breakout for Rome Odunze, who’s caught 22 passes on 38 targets for 328 yards and five touchdowns (with one more called back last week). Rookie wideout Luther Burden has quietly put together a couple of solid games despite a low snap share and seems like he may be on the cusp of a breakout, which could come as soon as this week with D.J. Moore playing through a groin issue.

The Bears can score, but they can’t defend. The 28.2 points and 369.4 yards allowed per game fall 27th and 26th despite the third-best opponent third-down conversion rate. The front seven is particularly vulnerable as the second-worst in the NFL in terms of yardage allowed and YPC, but the pass defense has somewhat hung around despite the loss of Jaylon Johnson for the season. The 2.4 takeaways Chicago averages are the league’s top in the stat, so despite a poor pass rush, this defense can still create high-impact plays.

New Orleans Saints

The same doesn’t ring true in the Big Easy, where it feels like nothing’s come easily this season. The Saints weren’t supposed to be good, but early results in Kellen Moore’s first year as head coach haven’t provided much encouragement. The good news is that New Orleans has been more competitive than anticipated, but losses add up quickly. That’s not to say Moore’s job is, or should be, in danger though. The offense is rather poor with Spencer Rattler under center, though he’s played better than his reputation may suggest. Still, the Saints average just 18.5 points and 305.3 yards per game, 29th and 24th. They’ve protected the football well with the sixth-fewest giveaways, but the yardage and scoring simply hasn’t come. Alvin Kamara seems to have lost a step and Chris Olave has been inefficient with the third-most targets of any wideout, producing just 342 yards and one score. Rashid Shaheed’s name has popped up in trade rumors, as has Olave’s, and it feels like this situation teeters on the brink of a fire sale.

The defense is one of the league’s oldest units and allows 26.7 points with 327.3 yards per game. The Saints give up 3.2 touchdowns per contest and while they’re not particularly bad against the run or pass on average, they did get gashed by Drake Maye and the Patriots last week, which bodes very poorly against this Bears passing attack. New Orleans does sit 15th in sack percentage and 10th in takeaways per game, but those aren’t enough to boost the team to wins.

Bears vs. Saints pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Bears as -4.5 favorites with -218 odds on the Moneyline. The Saints are listed at +180 odds to win on the Moneyline with the game total set at 45.5 combined points.

Those odds are admittedly a bit surprising. The only real path to a New Orleans win seems like a dominant showing on the ground to exploit a soft Chicago front seven, but the Saints produce just 109.5 rushing yards on average with 4.0 YPC, 24th in the league. Kamara himself has just 314 yards and one touchdown on 83 attempts, good for 3.8 YPC. If years of wear and tear have an impact on his legs, this ground game may not be able to produce what it needs for the Saints to punish their opponent.

A huge game through the air feels far more likely for the Bears in this one. This offense scheme is clearly working under Johnson, even if Williams’ arm is a little bit inaccurate at times. As the weeks go on, this attack should continue to improve as they become even more comfortable. Really, this game against a weak secondary is the perfect chance to really hit their stride, too. Kool-Aid McKinstry and Isaac Yiadom are the primary cornerback matchups and neither grades out above 74th in coverage grade, per PFF. Those are matchups Odunze, Moore, Burden and even Olamide Zacchaeus can take advantage of, so watch for a big night for Williams and his weapons through the air. Chicago should cover comfortably.

Best bet: CHI Bears -4.5 (-105)