Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 7’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.

We’re 1/3 of the way through the NFL regular season and the Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) are far better than the record suggests. In Week 7, they welcome the AFC West rival Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) to Arrowhead for the first meeting of the year between these sides. With a star set to make his return for the home team, there’s some extra intrigue in this contest for fans and bettors alike.

Get ready for Chiefs vs. Raiders with a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction, preview

Kansas City Chiefs

The 3-3 record suggests the Chiefs are a middle-of-the-pack football team, but that’s about to change with an influx of star power. Happy Rashee Rice week to those who celebrate — the young wideout returns for the first time since Week 4 of the 2024 season on Sunday. Boy, does he join a hot offense, too. After a couple years of dink-and-dunk football with time-of-possession battles at the forefront, Kansas City has opened things up for Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs average 25.8 points and 360 yards per game, both top-10 marks, as well as the 12th-best third-down conversion rate and fifth-most touchdowns per contest. They lead in PROE by a long shot as Mahomes slings the rock in his old gunslinger fashion, tossing 11 touchdowns with 1,514 yards and just two picks. He’s also running the ball well with the third-most yards on the ground of any QB, somehow leading the team in rushing production. However, a healthy Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice are bound to create havoc for defenses alongside Travis Kelce, so this passing attack should improve even more moving forward with all the weapons around once more.

The Chiefs also have a borderline top-10 defense with 20.7 points and 311.2 yards allowed per game, 11th and 12th in the league. They’re not stopping the run particularly well, but the secondary limits opponents to the eighth-fewest yards through the air and the pass rush is respectable with a sack percentage of 7.41%, 13th in the NFL. Kansas City creates just 1.0 takeaways per game, but as long as the defense is respectable, the team should get back to its winning ways.

Las Vegas Raiders

Looking toward the Raiders, the lone wins of the season came in a fluky Week 1 victory over the Patriots and another dub over the Titans, who proceeded to fire their head coach afterwards.

Where the Chiefs are deploying a potent offense, Las Vegas is stuck in the mud while constantly running into the same issues game after game. The 17.2 points and 206.7 yards per contest come in at 30th and 23rd, respectively, and a poor offensive line results in plenty of sacks for Geno Smith as well as few running lanes for Ashton Jeanty. Predictably, the Raiders are last in interceptions with Smith having thrown 10 in just six games, constantly coughing up the ball and ending possessions without much progress. After signing him to a big extension, this team must weather the storm and hope he can regain the form which saw him excel with the Seahawks. However, the Raiders are throwing for just 201.5 yards per game and failing to get much going via the ground with 105.2 rushing yards on average. With Brock Bowers once again sidelined due to his knee injury, the outlook for an offensive turnaround feels rather grim.

On defense, the Raiders limit average yardage at 311 but do concede 24.8 points. Las Vegas is particularly poor on third downs with the 25th-ranked opponent conversion rate, and while the run defense is pretty strong with the 10th-fewest yards allowed, the secondary does struggle. The Raiders are 19th in opponent passing yards and are roughly middle-of-the-pack in sack percentage. The 1.2 takeaways per game are encouraging, but that matters less when they’re also last in giveaways thanks to Smith’s interceptions.

Chiefs vs. Raiders pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Chiefs as -11.5 favorites with very strong -800 odds on the Moneyline. They’re the slate’s heaviest favorite by a wide margin. The Raiders are listed at +550 odds to win on the Moneyline with the game total set at 45.5 combined points.

Las Vegas has been known to make things interesting for Kansas City at times, but this doesn’t feel like one of those opportunities. Per most reports, Rice is a full-go for a featured workload and brings an entirely new element to an already great offense. Mahomes looks revitalized this year to begin with and will only make more plays with his top target back in the mix. The Raiders’ defense isn’t equipped to handle the various pass catchers in this contest and will face an uphill battle limiting the passing attack — play closer to the line of scrimmage to stop zone-beaters like Rice and Kelce, and they’re beat downfield by Worthy and Hollywood Brown. Play two-high and make Mahomes game-manage his way to a win, and suddenly the Chiefs’ short and intermediate game sees the chance to dominate.

While the Raiders’ run game could see success in this one if Jeanty can find a few gaps, they’re still outmatched in the trenches and this Kansas City secondary should have Smith seeing ghosts like other opponents have. With a turnover or two, this could turn into a massive blowout. Even without it though, the home team should have no problems finding the end zone.

Best bet: KC Chiefs team total over 27.5 points (-130)