The Washington Commanders (3-3) and the Dallas Cowboys (2-3-1) meet Sunday in Week 7 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Commanders vs. Cowboys odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.
The Commanders suffered a heartbreaking 25-24 loss to the Chicago Bears on Monday night in Week 6, failing to cover as 5.5-point home favorites as the Under (49) cashed. QB Jayden Daniels threw for 211 yards and 3 TDs while rushing for 52 yards, but a fumble with 3:10 left set up Chicago’s game-winning field goal as time ran out.
The Cowboys dropped a tough one on the road in Week 6, falling 30-27 to the Carolina Panthers as 3-point favorites, with the Over (48) cashing. QB Dak Prescott threw for 261 yards and 3 TDs, while WR George Pickens caught 9 passes for 168 yards and a score. However, Dallas’ run defense struggled, giving up 183 rushing yards and 56 receiving yards to RB Rico Dowdle.
The teams went 1-1 last season with each team winning on the road. Dallas leads the all-time series 79-49-2.
Commanders at Cowboys odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:32 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Commanders +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cowboys -125 (bet $125 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Commanders +1.5 (-110) | Cowboys -1.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Commanders at Cowboys key injuries
Commanders
DE Dorance Armstrong (hamstring) questionableOL Samuel Cosmi (knee) questionableTE Zach Ertz (shoulder/calf) questionableCB Jonathan Jones (hamstring) questionableWR Terry McLaurin (quad) outWR Deebo Samuel (heel) out
Cowboys
RT Ajani Cornelius (knees) questionableCB Trevon Diggs (concussion) outOL Trevor Keegan (knee) outDE Marshawn Kneeland (ankle) questionableWR Jonathan Mingo (knee) questionableS Juanyeh Thomas (migraine) questionableCommanders at Cowboys picks and predictionsPrediction
Cowboys 31, Commanders 28
BET COWBOYS (-125).
Just a few weeks ago, this might’ve been a closer matchup, but the tides have turned. Dallas is getting a major boost with WR CeeDee Lamb returning from a high ankle sprain. Even if he’s not at 100%, he’s a difference-maker against a Washington secondary allowing 235 passing yards per game.
Meanwhile, the Commanders’ passing game is in shambles. They’ll be without their top 2 wideouts — McLaurin and Samuel — which leaves Daniels throwing to a thin group led by second-year WR Luke McCaffrey, rookie WR Jaylin Lane, and veterans Chris Moore and recently signed Robbie Chosen.
Daniels has been impressive this season, but asking him to win on the road in Dallas with that lineup is a tall order. Washington might find some success on the ground — Dallas allows 142.2 rushing yards per game — but if they fall behind early, they don’t have the weapons to keep up.
The Cowboys’ defense has struggled, but at home, with Prescott playing efficient football and Lamb back in the mix, I expect Dallas to control this one from the jump. The Commanders are banged up, thin at key positions, and walking into a bad spot.
PASS.
Feel free to take the spread if you want slightly better odds, but I’ll keep it to the moneyline.
BET OVER 54.5 (-110).
This matchup has Over written all over it. The total has gone Over in 3 of the last 4 meetings between Dallas and Washington, and both teams have been involved in plenty of shootouts this season. The Cowboys have gone Over in 4 of their last 5 games, fueled by a defense giving up 30.7 points per game. With both teams allowing more than 350 yards per game, this one should be a high-scoring, back-and-forth battle.
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