The Giants and Broncos played one of the strangest games in NFL history. Bo Nix looked like he had a one-way ticket to Bustville through three quarters. Then he generated four TDs in the fourth quarter on 218 yards, including 46 yards rushing himself. Neither team seemed to want to win. The Broncos gave it right back to Jaxson Dart, who was fantastic for the second-straight week. Then the Giants gave it right back by letting Nix march 56 yards in 37 seconds, including an opening completion that didn’t even seem intended for the player who caught it. We also had two tipped passes turn into TDs… before the real madness even happened.
My wife came into the room while the teams were trading long drives in the final two minutes and said, “Football is stupid because there’s 30 seconds left and everyone thinks the team can score and they do. So why don’t they do that the whole game?” Um… I don’t know…? It’s a good question, you have to admit. She also doesn’t understand how professionals can miss an extra point. I could not summon a response.
What does this all mean for these two teams? I think Sean Payton wants Nix to run the Drew Brees offense like Brees was a system QB. That’s dumb. Nix has to make more plays downfield, which also opens up his ability to run. This is not a deep offense for fantasy, though. You can only play Nix (who has mostly been terrible in reality), J.K. Dobbins and Courtland Sutton.
Dart has to get QB1 (meaning 12-team starter) consideration for his past two games. The Broncos defense is overrated, as are most defenses we think are very good, but they are still at least upper echelon in the league. You should start Cam Skattebo and Wan’Dale Robinson, too. I’m shocked by this development, but it can’t be denied.
Late Games: Not a Golden rookie; Gadsden breaks out in garbage time
Green Bay at Arizona: Jordan Love loves analytics. He dominated QBR vs. the Cardinals. But the Packers had 262 yards, so putting up a number over 70 in QBR seems like an indicator that QBR is broken. Again, Romeo Doubs was the team’s target priority. In regards to Matthew Golden, I said all summer if you don’t earn market share on Saturdays, you are not going to earn it on Sundays. Please remember this and use it as a check against NFL draft ADP and the expected market share that typically brings. It’s not going to happen for Golden. I love the targets for Tucker Kraft, even though he was surprisingly inefficient despite the key TD.
The Packers seemed determined to let Trey McBride run free in the red zone. If you didn’t follow football, you’d have no idea Marvin Harrison was considered a generational WR prospect and Zay Jones is a journeyman. This is not meant as a compliment to Jones.
I will discuss Bam Knight in Tuesday’s “Market Share Report” and update Trey Benson’s injury status.
Washington at Dallas: Jayden Daniels pulled his hamstring and that’s probably going to be a multiple-week issue. The Commanders can’t seriously compete without him and their other injured players. This is such an old team. Jacory Croskey-Merritt was supposed to have a coming out party against this Dallas defense but did nothing.
Dak Prescott was great and the passing tree is narrow enough with CeeDee Lamb back. Someone asked me about trading George Pickens because they had Lamb, and I said to start them both — the Cowboys are the 2024 Bengals.
Indianapolis at Chargers: The Colts are a complete team. Looking at the QB play this year, and Daniel Jones in particular, it seems like teams should pick up highly-drafted castoffs after they resolve whether they still like the player and if they can blame his environment for his NFL struggles to date. Jones is having an MVP-caliber season. The entire offense is in play because Jones is suddenly so good.
I did say to get rookie Oronde Gadsden and to play him, but this was a perfect story — 6 of 7 receptions and 142 of 164 yards came after the Chargers fell behind 20-3 in the second quarter. Ladd McConkey managers are probably furious, but he had a team-high 15 targets (Gadsden had nine).
Early Games: The Swift lesson; Judkins’ convincing effort
Rams vs. Jacksonville (London): Trevor Lawrence never turns the corner. He was supposed to be a generational prospect and can’t make the most simple throws. Yes, his receivers dropped passes. It’s just a mess. I’d love to say, “I told you so,” about Travis Hunter’s breakout game, but I was not impressed. This game was a glorified practice — the Jaguars were never in it.
Brian Thomas went into Julio Jones mode in coming off the field after every play like he was hurt. Except Jones actually produced between the lines.
Matthew Stafford came into the week leading the NFL in passing yards to go with his 12 TD throws and I had to talk people into just considering him as a fantasy starter. I don’t understand it. Puka Nacua needs Stafford more than vice versa and that’s true of every WR with a Hall of Fame QB.
New Orleans at Chicago: The lesson with D’Andre Swift is running backs are like closers in fantasy baseball. We shouldn’t care so much about trying to put a fine point on their ability. Do they have the job? Just like in fantasy baseball, you take a cheap closer who no one likes and you can easily get a league leader in saves, like Carlos Estévez. Swift is a league winner.
Kyle Monangai came into the week having broken 10 tackles in 22 rushes, just an insanely good rate. He finally got some opportunities in a David Montgomery vein and delivered. I’ll cover him in my weekly market share analysis, too.
Chris Olave is good, and hopefully his concussion issues will remain a thing of the past. He’s 25. Why would the Saints trade him? He could be the Marvin Harrison (Sr.) to whoever the next New Orleans QB is, like how Harrison was there for Peyton Manning as a stabilizer his rookie season.
Miami at Cleveland: Speaking of the Martin Scorsese documentary… Mike McDaniel may be fired by the time you’re reading this. Didn’t we all always know Tua Tagovailoa was just a guy who was a system QB at best and not worthy of franchise-QB money? The Dolphins must have known it, but it was in everyone’s interest there to believe Tagovailoa was really something despite his glaring physical shortcomings.
I thought Quinshon Judkins would threaten 200 yards, though he ended up scoring pretty much at his most optimistic projections. Still, I was a little disappointed. I always prefer yards to TDs in predicting future performance. Judkins is one of the winning picks though — I’m convinced.
New England at Tennessee: When it comes to rookies, I usually look for pockets of value and fade the hype. But in my wildest cynicism, I could not have imagined Rhamondre Stevenson rendering a healthy TreVeyon Henderson basically cuttable.
Cam Ward is going to have his third head coach within six months of his NFL debut. So, no, it’s not going well. This is how guys like Ward never really get a chance, get broomed and then look transformed on another team with a solid infrastructure in place.
Las Vegas at Kansas City: I know I just said RBs are like closers and we just want them to have the job, but 30 plays for the Raiders? That’s just impossible — the lowest since 2002. Geno Smith has collapsed into a black hole that’s extinguishing all life in his general vicinity. This has to be the worst QB signing in history. Smith was too old to bet on given he has never been great. This wasn’t Aaron Rodgers.
Brashard Smith is interesting given his opportunities for the Chiefs, but he continues to do next to nothing with his chances. The four targets for Xavier Worthy were very disappointing. The KC receiving room is poorly constructed. Everyone is ideally a short-area target. It’s like having a lineup of leadoff hitters. But Patrick Mahomes is so composed now compared to how frenetic he seemed for about 20 straight games. He’s hyper-efficient and content to just keep matriculating the ball down the field, 1969 Chiefs style.
Philadelphia at Minnesota: Jalen Hurts was very good and made all the throws he needed to to beat the Vikings. I have to stand up and salute 326 yards on 23 attempts. Just keep playing this way. Who cares about Saquon Barkley? You beat the opponent with the passing game and then beat the clock with the run. First principles. DeVonta Smith is Pro Bowl-caliber and A.J. Brown is Pro Bowl-caliber. Who cares about Barkley?
I loved Jordan Addison prior to his suspension, ironically comparing him to Smith — as in putting them both in the same general ranking bucket. But the Vikings offense is ordinary at best now. No WR has more than one TD. J.J. McCarthy has had a soft benching as there’s no way this ankle injury should have kept him out this long. Mahomes won a Super Bowl without missing any time with the same injury. We’re not stupid.
Carolina at Jets: Justin Fields had 25 passing yards on 15 dropbacks — progress! Look, signing the busts that were once highly regarded as prospects isn’t always going to work either. Generally, sacks are a fatal flaw.
The Panthers are pot committed to Chuba Hubbard given his contract, so the touches allocated to him versus Rico Dowdle is going to remain unfair — Dowdle has earned the starting job and looked so much better than Hubbard again. Otherwise, this game was a brutal slog.