Following weeks of debate and discussion, we’re finally starting to see through the forest that is the quarterback class for the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh. At the start of the season, it appeared that it would be two southern quarterbacks, Cade Klubnik and Garrett Nussmeier, fighting for top honors in the Heisman and to get taken first in the upcoming draft. Instead, for two months, we’ve seen upsets and underperformances, leading us to a slew of capable throwers but no one getting out ahead in the race.

Finally, there is a trio that has distanced itself from the pack. While there are still outliers and players working through injury or saddled with weakened teams that could move up the board, these three players all look like surefire first-rounders, all on teams competing for a national championship.

Here’s how I have them and the entire top five ranked in the ultimate marathon to be 2026’s QB1 at the draft.

1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

It’s no fluke. There is no fun Cinderella story or underachiever making good on a team rising from the mud. Fernando Mendoza showed flashes of being a general on an average California Golden Bears team last year, and Indiana has helped him maximize his talents on a team vying for a national title.

When it comes to precision and making the back shoulder throw, there’s no one better in college football. Mendoza is making throws in the pocket that some starting quarterbacks in the NFL have trouble with daily. In the red zone, he executes like a shark smelling blood, consistently hitting his targets in places only they can grab the ball. Like his former Golden Bear alums, Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff, he has a keen sense in the pocket, where he might not always throw the most exciting pass, but generally throws the smartest.

Mendoza won’t wow you with his legs, but he has enough athleticism and football IQ to force defenses to respect his mobility if they leave a gaping lane open for him to shoot through for a run. After another clinical day against Michigan State with four touchdowns to only four incompletions, he has affirmed himself as my projected No. 1 pick in the draft. He’s the type of quarterback that might not be a Jayden Daniels or Andrew Luck who turns down a franchise from day one. Yet, he has the well-rounded skillset to be someone who, over time, helps build a downtrodden organization into a perennial contender.

2. Ty Simpson, Alabama

Similar to Mendoza, Simpson is making all the right throws and commanding a team to perfection down in Alabama. After beginning the campaign with a shock loss to Florida State, it looked like everyone in Tuscaloosa, from the coach to the players, was going to get thrown overboard. Simpson, though, has been made of ice with all the noise and pressure around him, consistently making pro-level throws and coming up in the clutch to get his team back in the hunt for a national championship.

3. Dante Moore, Oregon

After a tough loss to Mendoza and Indiana last week, Moore came out against Rutgers with vengeance on the mind. He saw an inferior opponent and ripped through them, showing off his arm strength and whipping balls to his receivers with purpose. He averaged 14.5 yards on his throws, totaling 290 overall with four touchdowns in a laugher. The blowout of Rutgers won’t mask the bitter taste of losing to a new rival in Mendoza, but there’s still a chance the two could meet down the line in either the Big 10 championship or the college playoff.

4. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

Frankly, after the trio at the top, it’s a complete crapshoot from there. Everyone after the three named has the potential to be a first-rounder or even be QB1 if something crazy happens, but there is an inherent gamble with anyone you choose after the third spot. So with the fourth position, I’m sticking with the player who has the highest ceiling of anyone in the draft.

Sellers is on a below-average team at South Carolina with an offensive line that doesn’t allow him any space to be creative and show off his talents. That’s not to say it’s all the team’s fault, as Sellers continually has made bad decisions and tried to make too much out of nothing, but it’s hard to gauge him surrounded by a mess.

If he lives up to his full potential, then he’s the next Josh Allen, pulverizing teams with his unique size and speed with a flamethrower of an arm. But as we’ve seen countless times, these types of projects often don’t live up to that ceiling and crash out as career back-ups who can’t be trusted to lead a professional franchise.

5. Sam Leavitt, Arizona State

At No. 5, I’m going with my gut over anything else. There are quarterbacks in college with better stats than Leavitt, yet Leavitt, like his former one-two punch of Cam Skattebo, has the personality and relentlessness that makes you believe in him. He has the legs, a good arm, and can let it fly if needed. He’s also rough around the edges and can look a bit of a fool when his legs lead him crashing into a wall, but there’s something there with Leavitt that can be a cornerstone of a franchise.

For Leavitt’s sake, he needs to go to a franchise with a competent offensive coach and a sound system. If that happens, we could see Leavitt as a special NFL quarterback in a few years. The biggest fear would be Leavitt going to a franchise looking for a savior and seeing his chaotic exuberance doused by heavy expectations and poor leadership.

Honorable Mentions: Jayden Maiava (USC), Sawyer Robertson (Baylor), Cade Klubnik (Clemson), John Mateer (Oklahoma), Garrett Nussmeier (LSU)