Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 8’s Thursday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Minnesota Vikings.

Week 8’s Thursday night slot drops the 4-3 Chargers against the 3-3 Vikings at SoFi Stadium, a cross-conference pivot with playoff tiebreak ripples under the lights. Los Angeles staggers in from a 38-24 home loss to Indianapolis despite Justin Herbert’s career-high 420 yards and three touchdowns, a garish box score that couldn’t mask a defense gashed early and often. Minnesota arrives off a 28-22 defeat to Philadelphia defined by six red-zone trips and just one touchdown, and Carson Wentz remains the starter on a short week as J.J. McCarthy heals. Keenan Allen just became the fastest player ever to 1,000 career receptions and now hunts Antonio Gates’ franchise receptions record, a milestone arc that spotlights his chemistry with Herbert.Layer in Brian Flores’ disguise-and-pressure identity and the Chargers’ need to halt a slide of three losses in four, and the stage tightens into a high-leverage TNF referendum on resilience. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 8’s Thursday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Minnesota Vikings.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The blitz map defines the hinge. Minnesota fires at 38.51% on pass plays, then spikes to 54.17% in the red zone. Herbert thrives when the house comes: 66.7% completions and 8.1 YPA against blitz, with five touchdowns and two interceptions on seventy-five attempts. Under general pressure, he dips to 51.9% and 6.2 YPA, with seven touchdowns and four interceptions on one-hundred-six attempts. Minnesota’s blitz has been punished outside: 75% completions, 252 yards, and three touchdowns on twenty targets. Allen is the clean answer under heat, stacking eighteen blitz targets into twelve catches, 131 yards, and two touchdowns. Against straight pressure, he adds ten grabs for 122 yards and three touchdowns on twenty looks. That is trust in crisis, rehearsed and repeatable.

Structure funnels the ball. Slot receivers hit only 36.4% against Minnesota’s blitz, which can chill Ladd McConkey in that exact picture. Money downs remain Allen-centric: on third-and-three or fourth-and-two, he owns seven targets, four catches, forty-nine yards, and one touchdown. Quentin Johnston remains the vertical stressor when Flores sends heat, converting fifteen blitz targets into nine catches, 168 yards, and two touchdowns. Oronde Gadsden II just detonated for seven catches on eight targets and 164 yards, and he carries a sparkling 2.32 yards per route run this season. Tight ends hit 80% versus Minnesota’s blitz, and Gadsden owns a 71.4% catch rate when Herbert is pressured. The geometry forces apex defenders to widen, then reopens Allen’s boundary slashes.

Now flip the lens. Los Angeles lives in zone on 78% of dropbacks, with Cover 3 at 34.4% and Cover 4 at 27.1%. Carson Wentz processes Cover 3 at 72.5% completions and 10.1 YPA, even with a negative touchdown-to-interception quirk. T.J. Hockenson answers zone with a 78.3% catch rate and lands at 77.8% against Cover 3. In the red zone he sharpens again, converting 71.4% on seven targets. Los Angeles has allowed tight ends to catch 75% in the red zone on four looks with two touchdowns surrendered. Daiyan Henley, linebacker, has allowed five of five in red-zone primary coverage with one touchdown, right through the seam window Hockenson favors.

Jordan Addison arrives with a strong pulse. Since returning in Week 4, he averages 94.3 yards per game with a robust 2.38 yards per route run. Volume rose with craft: a 0.21 targets-per-route rate and a 27.5% first-read share, both personal highs. Justin Jefferson remains Cover 3 thunder, catching 81.8% at 20.1 yards per reception. Los Angeles has allowed 349 yards to wide receivers in Cover 3, which stresses quarters-three rotations and strains late safety overlap. Jalen Nailor leads Minnesota with eight red-zone targets, but a 25% catch rate drags conversion odds. Josh Oliver, sits at a 75% red-zone catch rate, and Addison’s 66.7% red-zone rate keeps a second punch ready if Hockenson attracts bracket leverage.

Vikings vs. Chargers pick, best bet

Minnesota can cloud pictures, heat third down, and steer throws into choked windows. The slot chill against blitz smothers quick game and can force longer second downs. Los Angeles has bled explosives in recent weeks, and that tempts Wentz to test seams early. The refutation tracks through leverage and sequencing. Herbert’s blitz split is sturdy, not streaky, and Allen’s boundary answers match the precise stress point Flores concedes. Gadsden’s emergence forces width from curl-flat defenders, which re-creates isolation chances for Allen and restores rhythm. Johnston still threatens off play-action into post-corner space, keeping corners honest against press-bail.

Market context nods to that shape. The spread parks near Chargers -3 and the total hovers at 44.5, which fits the tape and the math.The last-three-games sample tilts the same direction. Los Angeles has played with offensive buoyancy at +0.048 EPA/play, juiced by +0.070 EPA/rush even as pass EPA dips to -0.005; Minnesota sits near flat at -0.001 EPA/play, but throws with +0.118 EPA/pass while the run game bleeds at -0.292. That exchange sketches a rhythm: the Chargers create steady down-to-down value on the ground, the Vikings manufacture air damage, and both teams keep the scoreboard within reach of a mid-40s total.

Defenses fan the flames. Over the last three, the Chargers have allowed +0.280 EPA/play overall, including +0.280 EPA/pass and +0.179 EPA/rush, which invites explosive plays to stack. Minnesota’s resistance grades better but still yields +0.083 EPA/play and a hefty +0.273 EPA/pass while choking the run at -0.105 EPA/rush. Those splits echo what the eyes just saw: the Colts detonated Los Angeles with sustained chunk gains and red-zone strikes, and the Eagles punctured Minnesota with timely verticals.

The success-rate frame tightens the lean. The Chargers’ offense has moved chains at a 51.0% third-down success rate across this window, while Minnesota’s offense sits at 35.6%, which implies extra Los Angeles possessions and more total snaps. That already shows up in volume: 203 offensive plays for the Chargers against only 128 for the Vikings over the same period. More plays plus friendlier efficiency equals more scoring bites at the apple, and that’s before layering the coverage and pressure geometry that already tilts toward quick points.

Recent form adds accelerant rather than noise. Indianapolis surfed balance and explosives to 38 at SoFi, exposing L.A.’s tackling layers and low-red stress. Philadelphia ripped Minnesota with three touchdown throws and clean explosives, proof that even with red-zone field-goal discipline, the Vikings’ pass defense can still be nicked by precision and speed. Indoors, on a short week, those same edges often magnify: tempo rises, scripted series bite, and defensive communication gets tested by motion and formation variety. So the market isn’t guessing; it’s tracking.

Final score prediction: Chargers 27, Vikings 24. Ride the friendly points environment. The geometry, the three-game splits, and the red-zone tendencies align. Slam the over.

Best bet: Chargers vs. Vikings o44.5 total points (-110)

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For a prop lean, play Carson Wentz over 226.5 passing yards (-110) because the setup invites air yards and his splits punish this coverage shell. SoFi’s climate-controlled canopy neutralizes wind and noise variables, so accuracy and tempo travel cleanly. It all aligns with what we detailed above: The Chargers live in zone (78% of dropbacks) with Cover 3 at 34.4% and Cover 4 at 27.1%, and Wentz dices Cover 3 at 72.5% with 10.1 YPA. T.J. Hockenson snares 78.3% against zone, which manufactures efficient first reads and steady chunk gains. Justin Jefferson shreds Cover 3 at 81.8% with 20.1 yards per reception, while this defense has yielded 349 yards to wideouts in Cover 3. Jordan Addison adds a recent 94.3 yards per game on 2.38 yards per route run, anchoring volume even when the run game stalls. The last-3 stretch amplifies it: Minnesota sits at +0.118 EPA/pass, while Los Angeles hemorrhages through the air at +0.280 EPA/pass allowed with +0.280 EPA/play overall. That convergence screams yardage. Indoors, with zone tells, seam access, and a three-level triangle of Jefferson–Addison–Hockenson, Wentz should crest 226.5 with rhythm throws and layered shots.

Best prop lean: Carson Wentz o226.5 passing yards (-110)

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