Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 8’s game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Miami Dolphins, with Michael Penix’s and Drake London’s statuses in serious doubt.

The roof shuts, the lights glow, and Mercedes-Benz Stadium inhales that taut late-October chill. Atlanta steadies its voice as Kirk Cousins all but certainly takes the reins here, while Miami staggers in from a three-game slide that scraped pride. Drake London will dress but with a cap on his snap volume, and that shifts the Falcons’ aerial rhythm. Atlanta’s defense carries a first-half-of-the-season identity that smothers air damage and squeezes explosives. Miami arrives with urgency and noise, but the recent 31-6 bruise in Cleveland still clangs in the tunnel. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 8’s game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Miami Dolphins.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Numbers sketch a clean blueprint where Atlanta leans into leverage and refuses to blink. The Falcons run for 136.3 yards per game, which ranks fourth, and their offense logs 4.6 yards per rush. Miami yields 159.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks 32nd, and surrenders 5.2 yards per carry. Opponents run on the Dolphins at a 51% rate, and backs have carved 169.6 scrimmage yards per game against them. Bijan Robinson brings 524 rushing yards, 5.4 per carry, and the kind of stride that splits angles. His after-contact production shows with 36 forced missed tackles and 3.4 yards after contact per rush. This is the soft seam in the fabric, and Atlanta’s most stable fulcrum finds it with patience and weight.

The passing matchup tilts with different torque. Atlanta allows 141.2 passing yards per game, first in the league, and gives up 20.0 points per game, eighth. The Falcons’ zone has traveled well, holding opponents to 4.96 yards per coverage snap with a 9.5% explosive-pass rate. Miami’s passing offense sits at 186.6 yards per game, which ranks 26th, and carries 12 giveaways that puncture rhythm. Tua Tagovailoa owns 1,313 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and his recent skid shows in the tape. Jaylen Waddle leads with 405 yards, but the post-Tyreek structure narrows spacing and reduces vertical stress. Atlanta’s coverage can clamp windows without panic, and that discipline reduces the air’s oxygen snap by snap.

Miami still carries a counterpunch, and it deserves respect in a building that amplifies speed. De’Von Achane averages 67.4 rushing yards per game with 472 on the season, and he changes angles in an instant. Atlanta’s run defense allows 124.0 yards per game, which ranks 19th, and that remains the Falcons’ pliable rib. Miami’s red-zone offense converts at 66.7%, ninth, while Atlanta’s red-zone defense has cracked at 72.7%, which sits last. That profile hints at a Dolphins path built on pace, motion, and condensed formations that create daylight for Achane. The trouble blooms when turnover gravity returns, and those short fields vanish under tight zone spacing and patient tackling.

The broader market context mirrors the on-field leverage. Atlanta sits 3-3 against the spread, with only one total clearing for the over. Miami stands 3-4 against the spread, with six of seven games hitting overs while allowing 29.3 points per game. The line carries Atlanta by seven with a 44.5 total, and the arithmetic stacks cleanly toward the home side. Atlanta’s offense scores only 18.3 per game, and that suppresses enthusiasm, yet the matchup hands them the league’s most generous run defense. Miami’s offense manages 279.0 yards per game, which ranks 27th, and owns a minus-turnover texture that feeds Atlanta’s pace.

Dolphins vs. Falcons pick, best bet

Cousins won’t need to chase fireworks; he will just need to keep the meter running. Kyle Pitts becomes a volume hinge against a defense that has allowed 439 receiving yards to tight ends. London’s managed workload pushes targets inside, and Pitts’ option inventory keeps linebackers flat-footed. Darnell Mooney stretches safeties just enough to widen the seams for play-action throws at intermediate depth. Atlanta’s third-down rate sits at 42.3%, which ranks ninth, and Miami’s defense allows conversions at 46.4%. That combination sustains patient drives and steals breath from a Dolphins front that wilts under repeated body blows. The clock grinds, the turf hums, and the Falcons live in second-and-five until Miami’s box thins.

Miami’s resistance will spark in bursts. Waddle will knife through zone with in-breakers, and Achane will tilt the field on angle routes. Minkah Fitzpatrick can still bait a throw and pivot a drive with range. Yet Atlanta’s back end constricts explosives with that 9.5% rate, and drive volume has to pile up without mistakes. Miami has turned the ball over 12 times, and Atlanta has collected nine takeaways, including six interceptions that punish late eyes. Those possessions swing hidden points, and the Mercedes-Benz speakers bite when the ball changes hands.

Robinson’s vision and contact balance face a defense allowing 5.2 yards per rush, as noted earlier, and living at 32nd in rushing yards allowed. His profile marries perfectly to Atlanta’s 4.6 yards per rush, and that marriage swallows clock and magnifies field position. In speculative terms, Robinson crests past the volume threshold that cracks pursuit discipline and draws safeties downhill. If that bracket tightens, Pitts cashes the loosened seam for the only explosive the game requires. That asymmetry feels like the hinge that turns a tense afternoon into a steady home cover.

Lay the seven with Atlanta. The Falcons’ fourth-ranked rushing volume plays directly into Miami’s 32nd-ranked rushing defense, and the home defense’s first-ranked pass yard mark mutes any comeback air. Miami’s 20.0 points per game on offense lack the explosive contour needed to punish a grind. Atlanta’s 20.0 points allowed per game hold the line while the run game salts away possessions. The total can dance near the number, but the side carries the cleaner edge and the cleaner narrative.

Final score: Falcons 27, Dolphins 16.

Best bet: Falcons -7 (-115) vs. Dolphins

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For a prop lean, Bijan Robinson 100+ rushing yards (+115) fits a clean mismatch between Atlanta’s 4th-ranked rush attack and Miami’s 32nd run defense. Atlanta churns 136.3 rushing yards per game at 4.6 yards per carry, while Miami allows 159.3 at 5.2. Opponents run on Miami 51% of snaps, the league’s highest, and Miami has already yielded 30 explosive runs. Robinson brings 5.4 yards per carry and 87.3 per game into linebackers who also surrender 169.6 RB scrimmage yards. If London’s routes stay managed, touches consolidate to backs and Pitts, and interior lanes widen through heavier personnel. Atlanta converts 42.3% on third down (9th), while Miami allows 46.4% (29th), which extends carries and stacks attempts. This game state projects 20+ carries, sustained play-action, and a late clock squeeze that pushes Robinson past triple digits.

Best prop lean: Bijan Robinson 100+ rushing yards (+115)

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