The quarterback market in the NFL has never been more unpredictable, and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence is the latest lightning rod in the debate over value, performance, and timing.
The Jaguars stunned many last offseason by handing their former No. 1 overall pick a five-year, $275 million contract, including $200 million guaranteed — an average annual value of $55 million. That figure ranks Lawrence among the NFL’s highest-paid quarterbacks, tied with the likes of Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, and trailing only Dak Prescott’s $60 million per year.
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But with a 20-30 career record and just one playoff win under his belt, critics are quick to question whether Lawrence is worth the investment.
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On paper, the deal puts Lawrence above Jalen Hurts ($51M), Lamar Jackson ($52M), and even Patrick Mahomes ($45M) in average annual salary. And while those quarterbacks boast Super Bowl appearances — or in Mahomes’ case, rings and MVPs — Lawrence is still viewed by some as an enigma. He flashes elite talent, but the consistency has yet to fully materialize.
Former NFL scout John Middlekauff didn’t mince words: “Trevor Lawrence is one of the most overhyped players in the history of the league,” he said, calling his contract “the second-most-overpaid” in the NFL.
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Still, the Jaguars believe in what they have.
General manager James Gladstone made it clear the franchise is committed to building around Lawrence, and the team’s offseason moves backed that up. The offensive line was reinforced with veterans like Patrick Mekari and Robert Hainsey, while explosive weapons such as Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. were added to stretch the field and ease the burden on Lawrence.
In Jacksonville’s view, this is an investment in upside — not a reward for past achievements. Lawrence’s 2024 campaign was disrupted by injury, but in 2022, he led the Jaguars to an AFC South title and a comeback playoff win over the Chargers. If he returns to that form in 2025, the contract could look far more justified.
Lawrence’s deal may seem steep now, but it’s largely a product of timing. Quarterback contracts are escalating rapidly, and players like Hurts and Jackson are almost certain to leapfrog Lawrence once new deals are in place. In a few years, $55 million per year may be closer to the market average than the ceiling.