Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 8’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers.

Acrisure doesn’t just buzz tonight; it seethes. Green Bay -3 and 45.5 set the market, but the subtext runs hotter. Aaron Rodgers meets his past in primetime, fresh off a 33-31 shootout loss and a mini-bye’s recalibration. Jordan Love guards Green Bay’s first-place pulse after a 27-23 escape in Arizona that left bruises and questions. The city wears 1933 throwbacks and a chip, because Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS in its last nine at home and has covered six straight on extra rest. Green Bay counters with a 4-1-1 start and the league’s best third-down heartbeat, yet drags an 0-5 ATS road skid into the river air. The wind behaves, the thermometer sits in the low 50s, and the towels shimmer like embers against the black. Rodgers won’t call it revenge, but DK Metcalf’s four scores and a roaring lower bowl sharpen that edge. Love won’t call it validation, but the Packers’ 26.3 points per game and steady red-zone nerve carry that burden. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 8’s Sunday Night Football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Green Bay brings an offense that hums at a top-five EPA/play clip and converts third downs at 49.3%, first in the league. Quarterback Jordan Love is completing 69.3% with 1,438 yards, ten touchdowns, and two interceptions, a stat line that breathes control and punch. The Packers average 343.3 yards per game, with 225.8 through the air and 117.5 on the ground, a balanced rhythm that stresses rules and spacing. Running back Josh Jacobs has stacked 414 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, and he drags safeties forward even when the box crowds. Tight end Tucker Kraft and wide receiver Romeo Doubs have combined for eight receiving scores, and that matters against a defense that has bled in the red area.

Pittsburgh answers with a proud offense that still flickers. The Steelers average 25.0 points per game and 297.5 total yards, and they’ve cleared 21 points in five of six. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers sits at 1,270 yards with fourteen touchdowns and five interceptions, and he took only nine sacks across six games. Wide receiver DK Metcalf has turned 22 catches into 406 yards and four touchdowns, while Jaylen Warren has churned 311 rushing yards to keep the chains from rusting. The sound of it all grows inside the stadium, but the tape whispers a harsher truth about their matchups.

Green Bay’s defense plays fast and firm. The Packers allow 20.8 points per game and just 288.5 yards, with only 76.5 rushing yards surrendered each week. That run wall meets a Steelers ground game averaging 94.5 rushing yards, so the geometry trends toward Pittsburgh throwing. Micah Parsons owns a 93.4 PFF grade with 36 pressures and six sacks, and Rashan Gary has banked 5.5 more, so the edges will hiss. Green Bay has posted 18 sacks, and that rush can distort timing, particularly when Rodgers hunts deeper angles.

Pittsburgh’s defense carries star wattage but uneven results. The Steelers allow 23.3 points per game and 374.7 yards, with 258.8 of those yards through the air. That pass number pulses like a warning siren against a Packers passing game that is both efficient and varied. Pittsburgh is tied for fifth in sacks at 22 and leans into man coverage at 32.7%, an identity that can invite isolation throws. Love has found rhythm against man looks, and Doubs has delivered a 26.7% target share against man, which coaxes Green Bay toward slants, digs, and back-shoulder body blows.

Coverage tendencies shape the evening like wind shapes smoke. Green Bay has leaned zone on roughly two-thirds of snaps, and that’s a look Rodgers reads in his sleep. He will slice with quick game, set tempo with hitches and slants, then chase air damage off play action when safeties squeeze. The counter lies in pressure, because Rodgers’ PFF passing grade under pressure sits at 43.3, while his overall grade is 64.3. If Parsons and Gary set the pocket on fire, Pittsburgh’s late-down math could tilt the wrong way.

The Packers’ offensive precision may be the quiet fulcrum. They score 26.3 per game, and their third-down edge is more than garnish; it is heartbeat. That sustains drives against a Steelers defense that has allowed 41.9% conversions on third down. Jacobs’ eight touchdowns pull red-zone defenders inward, where Kraft’s leverage and Doubs’ frame punish single coverage. If Pittsburgh answers with blitz, Love’s decisiveness and Green Bay’s route spacing can string together first downs and sap the crowd’s oxygen.

Packers vs. Steelers pick, best bet

Pittsburgh wears the underdog tag well at home, and that history hums beneath the seats. The Steelers are 3-3 against the spread and have hit the over in four of six, while Green Bay sits 2-4 against the spread. Rodgers has thrown four touchdowns in a single night this month, and Metcalf can tilt grass with one step. The Packers are 0-5 against the spread in their last five road games, and Acrisure does strange things to favored teams when the river air cools.

Yet the refutation stands firm when the matchups breathe. Green Bay’s run defense has strangled lanes at 76.5 yards allowed per game, so Warren must win on scraps. The Steelers’ pass defense has allowed 258.8 yards per game, and Love arrives with 69.3% accuracy and top-five EPA/play support. Pittsburgh’s offense averages 297.5 yards per game, and that number shrinks when early downs stall against a front that sets edges and attacks guards. The Packers’ 18 sacks are not window dressing; they’re proof of a rush that closes like a fist.

Game script should unfold like a slow crank that tightens and never loosens. Green Bay will probe with Jacobs early, then pivot to intermediate windows once Pittsburgh’s safeties creep. Love will feather rhythm throws to Doubs and Kraft, moving the chains, then pick his vertical spot when matchups skew. Rodgers will answer with tempo and precision, carving the seams of zone, but long-field drives will stall when the rush bites. First to force two field goals in the high red should tilt the final math.

The difference-maker should be Micah Parsons, and the tape sketches his impact with a predictive thrum. He should align wide, attack the right edge, and stitch together pressures that cut a possession or two by a full minute. Those snaps will not all become sacks, but they should fracture progressions and trim yards after catch. In a game that leans on third downs and red-zone economy, one drive-killing pressure sequence could weigh like steel.

Final score projection: Packers 26, Steelers 20. Packers -3 with conviction, because the efficiency edges stack like bricks. Green Bay holds the superior EPA/play profile on offense, the tighter run defense, and the sharper third-down teeth. Pittsburgh will flash, because Rodgers still bends grass to his will, but sustained winning will demand yards against a defense that refuses to budge. The Packers’ offensive precision and pass-rush heat should own the fourth quarter when breath grows short.

Best bet: Packers -3 (+100) at Steelers

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For a prop lean, I’m planting the flag where coverage and usage intersect: Romeo Doubs 60+ receiving yards at +110. Pittsburgh lives in man on 32.7% of snaps, and Doubs commands a 26.7% target share versus man. The Steelers have allowed the fourth-most receiver yardage on throws under 10 air yards, right in Doubs’ wheelhouse. Jordan Love’s 69.3% accuracy and a top-five EPA/play structure funnel him eight to nine purposeful looks. I expect a steady drumbeat of intermediate wins to stack yards, not a single splash. Doubs clears 60 with volume, leverage, and rhythm. six.

Best prop lean: Romeo Doubs 60+ receiving yards (+110)

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