The College Football Playoff committee will have two more weeks of games to consider before releasing its first rankings for the 12-team field, so we’ll get a better idea of where teams stand heading into the stretch run of the season. At the moment, there are only five undefeated teams remaining from the AP Top 25, but there’s plenty of one-loss and two-loss squads hoping to be in playoff contention by the end of the season. Three of those undefeated teams made big statements in Week 9 to boost their CFP resume ahead of Week 10.
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Texas A&M had not won a game in Baton Rouge since the Aggies joined the SEC back in 2012, but that changed Saturday night. Texas A&M’s defense smothered Garrett Nussmeier and LSU’s offense while Marcel Reed rushed for 108 yards and two scores while throwing for two more touchdowns in the 49-25 win, a game that cost Tigers coach Brian Kelly his job. Texas A&M is the only unbeaten team in the SEC and has a relatively easy path to get to Atlanta, particularly so now that Missouri is without Beau Pribula for the rest of the year, including when the Tigers host the Aggies in two weeks.
The BYU Cougars announced themselves as Big 12 and CFP contenders with a win over Iowa State. BYU QB Bear Bachmeier threw for 307 yards and two scores while rushing for one more in the 41-27 win. The Cyclones, who started the season hot, have lost three games and are basically out of CFP contention. BYU has a massive showdown looming in two weeks against Texas Tech, especially if Behren Morton can be healthy for the Red Raiders.
One team which has avoided the chaos to this point is Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have passed every test on the schedule so far but might get tripped up in Week 10 when they head to Raleigh to face North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have usually pulled off big upsets late in the year at home under Dave Doeren, and this was a wild 30-29 Georgia Tech win a year ago in Atlanta.
Here’s a look at the latest odds to make the CFP for each contender at FanDuel.
College Football Playoff odds (via FanDuel)Ohio State (off the board)Indiana (-8000 to make, +1800 to miss)Oregon (-320 to make, +245 to miss)Iowa (+1800 to make, -8000 to miss)Alabama (-1000 to make, +610 to miss)Texas A&M (-4500 to make, +1300 to miss)Georgia (-350 to make, +265 to miss)Vanderbilt (+118 to make, -144 to miss)Ole Miss (-300 to make, +235 to miss)Texas Tech (-192 to make, +154 to miss)BYU (+285 to make, -375 to miss)Miami (-245 to make, +194 to miss)Georgia Tech (+104 to make, -128 to miss)Virginia (+790 to make, -1500 to miss)Louisville (+235 to make, -300 to miss)Memphis (+520 to make, -800 to miss)South Florida (+350 to make, -480 to miss)Tulane (+240 to make, -310 to miss)Navy (+980 to make, -2200 to miss)Notre Dame (-340 to make, +260 to miss)
Vanderbilt got a big win over Missouri, and the injury to Pribula likely takes the Tigers out of any meaningful CFP conversations. The Commodores might avoid Arch Manning next week with the Texas quarterback suffering a concussion in Week 9, and the only other true test will be in the final week against Tennessee. Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss headline other one-loss teams in the SEC which should have a strong case to make the playoff.
The Big Ten should see three teams get into the playoff, but Iowa could throw a wrench into those plans when the Hawkeyes face Oregon in two weeks. Iowa only has two losses but would need to run the table and win the Big Ten title game to secure a playoff spot. The Ducks could probably still make the field with a loss to Iowa, though their margin for error would evaporate with that result.
Notre Dame continues to roll and will get in as long as the Fighting Irish don’t suffer another loss. The Group of Five representative is more of a mystery now, with Memphis bouncing back from its loss to UAB with a win over a ranked South Florida squad. The Tigers still have a date with Tulane and will potentially meet Navy in the AAC title game, so the quality wins are there to be had. However, that also means Memphis could slip up and open the door for the Green Wave, Midshipmen or Bulls.
Here’s how the projected bracket shakes out based on the current results and future predictions. The committee will reveal its first ranking on Tuesday, Nov. 4.
College Football Playoff projected bracketNo. 1 Ohio StateNo. 2 Texas A&MNo. 3 AlabamaNo. 4 IndianaNo. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 MemphisNo. 6 Georgia Tech vs. No. 11 Ole MissNo. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 OregonNo. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Notre Dame