Jared Goff, Jameson Williams and deep ball vs. Vikings

At this point, many fantasy fans know about Jared Goff‘s wildly distinct home-road splits. In his five-year career with Detroit, Goff has a 6.6% pass touchdown rate, a 107.7 passer rating and 19.65 fantasy points per game at Ford Field. But he has just a 4.0% TD rate, a 94.8 passer rating and 13.8 fantasy PPG on the road. Goff has thrown 84 touchdowns in 37 games at home, but just 46 touchdowns in 35 games elsewhere. At home this Sunday against Minnesota, Goff is already starting with an advantage. But the Vikings defense has largely been good enough to eliminate that advantage, matching Detroit’s sixth-ranked NFL Pro pass offense with the fifth-ranked NFL Pro pass defense.

The matchup gets particularly intriguing when you divvy up the field by passing depth. According to NFL Pro, the Detroit offense ranks second on short passes, while Minnesota ranks fourth on defense. Detroit also ranks second on intermediate passes, while Minnesota leads the entire league. But on the deep ball, the Lions are 30th in NFL Pro efficiency on offense … and the Vikings are 31st on defense. Minnesota has surrendered 10 completions on 13 deep attempts this year, for 363 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions and a league-high 157.9 passer rating (just short of perfect in that metric). They’ve surrendered a +33.2% completion rate over expected on deep passes, which is nearly double the next-highest team in the league (Titans, 17.7%). Meanwhile, Goff has struggled mightily on the deep ball, completing just four of his 15 attempts with a 57.6 passer rating. A big part of the problem: Jameson Williams has caught just one of his eight deep targets (though that catch was a 44-yard touchdown), after snagging four of 12 for 221 yards and three TDs last season. Goff and Williams need to get on the same page down the field, and this might be an opportunity to do so against the Vikings secondary.

Fantasy Fallout: Jared Goff is a fringe starter in a very difficult matchup, especially since he’s struggled in the one area the Vikings can be beaten. However, this might sneakily be the one time a month Jameson Williams pops off for fantasy, making him a viable stream or DFS play.