Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 9’s Thursday Night Football game between the Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens.

Thursday in Miami carries a short-week hinge: Lamar Jackson returns from the hamstring, and Baltimore tries to steady a wobbling season. John Harbaugh’s group has lived this building’s mood swings, from the 2021 Thursday gut-punch to the 2023 avalanche they delivered. Miami enters off its most coherent Sunday of the year, when Mike McDaniel’s promised changes finally shaped identity on grass. Short rest and South Florida humidity press Baltimore’s trench depth while Derrick Henry’s body-blow cadence tests Miami’s pledge to play heavier. Tua Tagovailoa keeps the visor, the tempo, and the quick-answer script, and Hard Rock waits to see if it stacks. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 9’s Thursday Night Football game between the Miami Dolphins and the Baltimore Ravens.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

When Baltimore has the ball, the stress points sit plainly in the math and the grass. Lamar Jackson returns carrying a 71.6% completion rate, a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception line, and 9.1 yards per attempt. That precision marries a ground game at 133.4 rushing yards per game, 8th in the league, and a back who punishes light boxes. Derrick Henry sits at 4.7 yards per carry with six touchdowns, and his workload climbed to 21 and 24 carries the last two weeks. Miami has yielded 145.0 rushing yards per game, 28th in the league, which forces the second level downhill and exposes glance windows. Baltimore doesn’t need explosives to score here; it needs cadence, angles, and ruthless 1st-down efficiency.

Miami’s pass defense presents a different picture. The Dolphins allow only 199.4 passing yards per game, 11th in the league, and they rally cleanly with Jordyn Brooks already at 85 tackles. That number invites patience and sequencing. Jackson’s keep threat widens the alley for Henry’s cutbacks, then quicks to Zay Flowers, who owns 486 receiving yards on 41 grabs, burn the cushion defenders give to protect against the gash. In the red zone, Baltimore’s answer should be boring by design: condensed splits, rub leverage, and high-percentage throws that keep Jackson upright.

When Miami takes possession, rhythm reigns. Tua Tagovailoa sits at 68.8% with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and the Dolphins average 187.9 passing yards per game. Their ground game holds at 98.5 per outing, and the shape improves when second down stays in phase. His efficiency crests when the first read is clean and the ball leaves by the third heartbeat. That matters because Baltimore’s coverage has leaked, allowing 250.7 passing yards per game, 28th in the league. The Ravens also rank 28th on third down and 26th in the red zone. Their pressure rate sits 30th, which is the hinge; if you don’t heat Tua, the timing menu stays on schedule. Jaylen Waddle carries 504 yards and four touchdowns, and motion scissoring the apex will tug nickel leverage into space.

Miami’s Week 8 fix wasn’t cosmetic; it finally looked structural. De’Von Achane has 539 rushing yards at 5.0 per carry and 235 receiving yards on 37 catches with 4 scores. His duality lets Mike McDaniel toggle split-flow into RPO slants without changing formations. Baltimore’s run defense has allowed 128.9 rushing yards per game, and that, paired with the pressure drought, creates a runway for perimeter action and backside cuts. If Miami trims penalties and keeps second down manageable, the quick game sets tempo and the crowd inhales with each chain tug.

Ravens vs. Dolphins pick, best bet

The counterpoint for Baltimore is historical and structural. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against Miami, and this series endured a 56-19 jolt in 2023. Jackson’s return raises the ceiling, and Baltimore still averages 24.9 points per game with multiple stress creators. Miami’s 10 interceptions have been costly, and short weeks punish protection and communication. That’s the favorite’s case. The rebuttal sits in home shape and opponent flaws: Miami has hit the over in nine straight at Hard Rock and has scored 27 or more in eight straight home dates. Baltimore ranks near the bottom in pressure rate and sits 28th in pass yards allowed. If the Ravens don’t affect the pocket, Miami’s first-read world should purr.

The Ravens have gone over in seven of their last eight, with 11 of their last 13 road games sailing past totals. Miami’s home overs have landed nine straight. Baltimore allows 30.0 points per game, 30th in the league, and Miami allows 26.9, 26th. Pair the Ravens’ eighth-ranked rushing volume with Miami’s 28th-ranked rush defense and you get sustained visitor drives. Pair Miami’s home scoring form with Baltimore’s 28th-ranked pass defense and you get answers in chunks. The total, not the side, stays the cleanest edge.

The case for a Baltimore smother relies on turnovers and short fields. Miami’s interceptions invite sudden-change touchdowns, and the Ravens can bait throws when the picture muddies. The case against a cover leans on structural cracks: low pressure, leaky third downs, and a red zone that hasn’t stiffened. If Baltimore can’t win with four or five rushers, Miami’s quick game will keep the margin inside 1 score late.

I’ll stay planted on points. The matchup gives Baltimore steady ground efficiency and hands Miami time to operate against a defense that hasn’t hurried quarterbacks. Trend and tape align on scoring, and the short week strips disguise from both coordinators. The side is noisy at this number; the total remains clean.

Final: Ravens 31, Dolphins 27. Even at a bloated 51.5, we’re over.

Best bet: Dolphins vs. Ravens o51.5 total points (-110)

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For a prop lean, Derrick Henry over 18.5 rushing attempts is the most logical volume buy on the board. Usage spiked to 21 and 24 carries the last 2 weeks as Baltimore leaned back into body blows. The team averages 133.4 rush yards (8th), and Miami concedes 145.0 per game (28th). Short-week road scripts compress playbooks and privilege downhill sequencing. Lamar Jackson’s 71.6% and 9.1 YPA sustain drives and extend rush windows without stealing carries. Baltimore sits -7.5 with a run-friendly matchup, which supports four-minute churn late. Henry’s 4.7 per carry and 6 touchdowns force loaded boxes that still don’t dent attempt counts. Even stalled series recycle to him on early downs. Miami’s second level has overcommitted all month, which invites duo and insert volume. I project 20–23 attempts with spikes if Baltimore protects a second-half lead. I’d play 18.5 to -125 and add a sprinkle on 20+ attempts at plus money.

Best prop lean: Derrick Henry o18.5 total rushing attempts (-105)

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