Nick Herbig’s been so dominant that he’s breaking the charts of those who try to quantify his performance. ESPN analytics guru Seth Walder updated the NFL’s double-team/chip and pass rush win rate chart, a Pittsburgh Steelers’ fan favorite, yesterday. While Herbig is far from the most chipped or doubled pass-rusher, he’s easily the most successful.
Herbig’s win rate is well above 30 percent and sits at the top of Walder’s chart. It’s easily the best rating in football, with a noticeable gap between second-place Will Anderson Jr. It’s even higher than Myles Garrett or Micah Parsons.
A few takeaways:
-T.J. Watt has been chipped a ton, more than in past. But there’s no disputing: his PRWR is way down.
-Odafe Oweh has had a solid PRWR, no 2 sacks in 3 games with LAC
-I don’t know if it were me I might play Nick Herbig more than occasionally
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 28, 2025
Herbig’s figure is the highest in Pittsburgh by a considerable margin. T.J. Watt is below-average, and I confirmed with Walder Highsmith’s is roughly average. He doesn’t appear on the list but sits between Brian Burns and Tuli Tuipulotu.
In fairness, Watt is among the leaders in chip/double-rate. Only Parsons and Garrett have higher figures, and Walder points out that Watt is receiving more attention than ever. But his win rate is lower than expected, not what Pittsburgh needs.
Watt is on pace to finish with just 9.7 sacks, which would be his fewest in a non-injury season since his rookie year. One big game, the type Watt is known for, can change that, but Watt has just one game this season with more than one sack.
Herbig’s great metrics make his usage even harder to stomach. Herbig has been treated like a typical No. 3 rotational rusher, playing less than 40 percent of the defensive snaps in each of the last two games. Despite that, he has two quarterback hits. That’s just one fewer than Watt and Highsmith combined over the past two games. And yet Herbig has struggled to see consistent snaps. Pittsburgh used a lack of run defense as the reason for Cincinnati. That wasn’t a problem against Green Bay.
Eligible for a contract extension beginning in the offseason, the Steelers could offer Herbig a long-term deal. His play has warranted it, but giving Herbig substantial money would come with the need to get him on the field as much as possible. That’s an equation Pittsburgh has yet to solve.