Atlanta’s self-determined identity is its run game, and nowhere is the first down difference between wins and losses more dramatic than in the run game.
In wins, the Falcons’ ground attack has been dominant, more than tripling their per-game output compared to losses. Atlanta ranks second in the league in rush EPA on first downs in wins (+11.15) but falls to 29th in losses (-12.53). The fits and starts of the offense are reflected in the team’s overall EPA per play on first downs (-0.07), but the team’s poor rushing performances in its four losses have made a significant impact.
The Falcons have generated +0.05 EPA per play in wins compared to -0.17 in losses. Essentially, Atlanta wins when it runs the ball efficiently, especially on first down.
In terms of the pass game, yardage numbers are similar between wins and losses, but that is likely a result of shifting to dropback-heavy game scripts based on the score. A closer look shows that Atlanta’s net yards per attempt (passing yards minus sack yards) increases from 5.5 in losses to 8.8 in wins.
In a bit of a surprise, the offense sees an increase in sack rate (11.5% vs. 1.8%) and interception rate (3.8% vs. 0%) in wins compared to losses. This suggests that when the Falcons are efficient on first down, they are more aggressive and will push the ball downfield with greater frequency.
We often hear coaches and players talking about the importance of getting the first 1st down on a drive. That allows the offense to find a groove, open up the playbook and take more risks because the defense wears down with each additional play and you’ve changed the field position calculus.
That starts on first down.