Coach Kirby Smart is regarded as the most elite coach in college football and his Georgia Bulldogs are 7-1 and ranked No. 5 in the nation, while Mississippi State is 5-4 and has lost 11 straight SEC home games.
And yet, Georgia is only favored by single digits — 8.5 points — in its game against the Maroon Bulldogs at noon next Saturday in Starkville.
Smart provided some reasons why moments after the Bulldogs pulled out a 24-20 win against Florida Saturday afternoon in Jacksonville after the Gators ended a string of four-straight double-digit losses in the series with the 4-point defeat.
“I don’t know what else is going on in the country right now, but when you play in this league” Smart said, “every game comes down to the last two possessions.”
Mississippi State knows that all too well, as it could just as easily be 8-1 with one or two different play outcomes in its overtime home losses to Tennessee (41-34, Sept. 27), Texas (45-38, Oct. 25) and at Florida (23-21, Oct. 18) in Billy Napier’s final game as the Gators head coach.
Indeed, the Maroon Bulldogs could have beaten Florida in The Swamp had Blake Shapen not thrown an interception at the Gators’ 29-yard line with 26 seconds remaining as they were driving for a potential game-winning field goal.
When one looks at common opponents — Tennessee and Florida — Mississippi State has accounted for itself almost as well as Georgia, from a statistical standpoint:
UGA beat UT 44-41 in overtime and had 502 yards to Tennessee’s 496, while MSU lost to UT in overtime, 41-34, and had 378 yards to the Vols’ 466.
UGA beat Florida 24-20 and had 361 yards to the Gators’ 281 at a neutral site, while MSU had 468 yards to UF’s 452 in Gainesville.
Smart didn’t have an update on the health of starting UGA defensive tackle Jordan Hall (knee) and cornerback Demello Jones (elbow), who played 29 defensive snaps against Florida or Chris Cole (knee), who played only three defensive snaps.
“That puts us a little bit down at several positions,” Smart said, perhaps providing more insight as to why the betting line seems relatively low. “We have to have guys step up and get ready to play.”
For perspective, Georgia was a 33.5-point favorite over Mississippi State entering into last season’s game in Athens, a game UGA won 41-31.
Here’s a look at the betting line is on games involving SEC teams this Saturday, per DraftKings.com:
• Georgia -8.5 at Mississippi State
• Texas A&M -6 at Missouri
• Auburn at Vanderbilt -7
• LSU at Alabama -11.5
• Florida -3.5 at Kentucky