After the Packers scored a convincing win against the Steelers last week, I thought they would firmly establish themselves as the team to beat in the NFC by taking care of business against an underwhelming Carolina at home. Instead, the Packers remain maddeningly inconsistent, capable of winning or losing any game without rhyme or reason. And to add literal injury to insult, they will now play the remainder of the season without one of their best players.
Tight End Tucker Kraft suffered an ACL tear at the beginning of the second half and will miss the rest of the 2025 season. It’s a huge blow to the Packers’ chances as Kraft was their most reliable receiver, and a key blocker in the run game. Without him, they will be forced to run lighter, and lean more on their wide receivers, as there is no obvious replacement for Kraft on the roster at the moment.
They did not adjust well to the loss of Kraft in this game, as responsibility for this loss falls squarely on the offense, which managed to score just 13 points against a defense that has been routinely torched this season, including last week in a 40-9 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Green Bay plays offense at an almost glacial pace, and the most amazing fact of this game is they somehow managed just 13 points despite never punting. Of their seven total possessions, they committed two turnovers (a Savion Williams fumble in the red zone, and an ill-advised Love pass into quadruple coverage that was picked off by Tre’von Moehrig), missed a field goal, and turned the ball over on downs.
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Stiff Headwinds
For context, the Detroit Lions suffered their own embarrassing loss to Minnesota on Sunday, but they ran 11 total drives, which is more the norm for NFL teams. The Packers’ pace leaves them vulnerable when there are a lot of penalties called (the Packers were flagged seven times in this game), or fumbles occur, or kicks are missed. They simply do not leave themselves enough time to overcome any headwinds.
Green Bay turned the ball over on downs after a 58-yard, 13-play drive that concluded near the beginning of the fourth quarter at the Panther’s thirteen-yard line. The Packers were trailing 13 to six at the time, and getting a touchdown was the ideal outcome, however every analytics model greatly favored kicking a field goal in that moment. By not doing so, Matt LaFleur cost his team dearly. Converting on fourth and eight is much more difficult than converting on fourth and short, and importantly, a touchdown would have only tied the game. They would have needed at least one more score regardless.
LaFleur’s game plan also seemed to ignore the relative strengths of the Carolina defense. The Panthers have some specific weaknesses that previous opponents have exploited, but the Packers continually played to Carolina’s strengths. The reason that they were going for it on fourth and eight in the fourth quarter is because LaFleur called a bubble screen to running back Emanuel Wilson on the previous play, which lost five yards. Carolina entered the game as the third best team in football at covering pass-catching running backs, and almost any other play call would have been superior.
Waste of Plays
Bubble screens are, in general, terrible plays when you just need three yards, because the entire play depends on the receiver making the first defender miss. If they fail to do so, the play will almost always lose yards, but if the receiver does manage to evade the first defender, it almost always results in a gain of 10 yards or more. It’s a boom or bust play, that’s not appropriate when you just need three yards. Wilson and Josh Jacobs were targeted seven times in this game and gained a combined 14 yards receiving. That is just a complete waste of seven plays in a game where you barely ran any plays to begin with.
The Packers’ defense did get gashed by outstanding running back Rico Dowdle who had 130 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries, but that should not have been a fatal flaw. They were missing their best run stuffer in Lukas Van Ness, and they completely shut down the Panther passing attack, holding Bryce Young to just 11 completions for 102 yards through the air, while picking him off once.
Micah Parsons failed to record a pressure for the first time in his career, and Rashan Gary was largely shut down, however this was the result of Carolina calling nothing but quick hitters which did not give the Packers pass rush time to get home. Green Bay’s secondary did well, playing aggressive football early in plays, and not allowing any easy completions. Van Ness and defensive lineman Will Brinson should be back next week against the Eagles, and the run defense should be better as a result.
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As long as the Packers play at a slow pace and lean into the run as much as they do, they will always be prone to these sorts of upsets. They’re still quite efficient under the hood, and so they can also beat just about any team, but when facing the Carolina Panthers of the world, it would be nice to see them go up tempo a bit and establish a lead before they call off the dogs. For now, they will remain one of the least consistent teams in football.