The Buffalo Bills enter Sunday’s showdown in South Florida riding high after a 28–21 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. That performance lifted Buffalo to 6–2 and reinforced its status as one of the AFC’s most complete teams. Josh Allen was nearly perfect, completing 23 of 26 passes and breaking the NFL record for most game with both a rushing and passing touchdown by a quarterback. The defense also made a statement, limiting Patrick Mahomes and forcing Kansas City into long, grinding drives.

Buffalo’s biggest concern heading into Week 10 is health. Running back James Cook remains questionable with an ankle injury after missing practice this week. The team’s injury report lists several other starters, including cornerback Christian Benford and edge rusher Joey Bosa, who were limited in practice. To strengthen the defensive front, the Bills made a few roster moves, promoting Phidarian Mathis to the active roster, giving them much-needed depth in the trenches.

Even with a few key players banged up, Buffalo looks poised to keep its momentum rolling. If Allen continues his efficient play and the defense maintains its physical edge, the Bills should have the upper hand against a Dolphins team struggling to find consistency.

Bills vs. Dolphins betting preview

Explore the interactive widget below to view the current spread, over/under, and moneyline odds and probabilities for the Bills-Dolphins matchup at Hard Rock Stadium.

This prediction and best bet for Sunday’s AFC East matchup between Buffalo and Miami comes from Dimers.com, a dependable source for sports betting predictions.

Matchup OverviewDate: Sunday, November 9, 2025Time: 1:00 PM ETVenue: Hard Rock StadiumNFL stats, rosters and injury reportsOddsSpread: Bills favored at -9.5Total (Over/Under): 49.5Moneyline Odds: Bills -470, Dolphins +410

The odds and lines featured in this article are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Expert Prediction: Bills vs. Dolphins Week 10

Buffalo enters Week 10 as a heavy favorite, holding a 9.5-point edge according to the latest odds. Dimers’ 10,000-simulation model gives the Bills a 78% chance to win and projects a final score of Bills 29, Dolphins 20. Buffalo’s efficiency and balance on both sides of the ball continue to separate them from a Miami team still trying to find rhythm.

Best Bet: Bills vs. Dolphins

While Buffalo remains the superior team, the Dolphins +9.5 spread seems to offer solid value. Miami has been competitive at home, and divisional matchups tend to stay tighter than expected. Taking the points gives bettors room for a late-game cover even if the Bills control most of the contest. What’s more, the Bills didn’t cover against Miami at home earlier this season and enter this contest 4-4 against the spread overall.

If this line creeps up by a half point, this might be all the more a best bet, as Buffalo has struggled to cover double digit spreads of late, going 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a double-digit favorite.

Anytime Touchdown Probabilities: Bills vs. Dolphins Week 10James CookBills55.7%Josh AllenBills47.8%Khalil ShakirBills32.2%Keon ColemanBills28.2%Dalton KincaidBills26.5%De’Von AchaneDolphins51.4%Jaylen WaddleDolphins34.5%Malik WashingtonDolphins23.5%Conclusion: Bills vs. Dolphins

This AFC East matchup should highlight Buffalo’s consistency and Miami’s desperation. The Bills are the deeper, more disciplined team, but if the Dolphins can create turnovers and capitalize in the red zone, they have a shot to keep it close. Expect Buffalo to leave Hard Rock Stadium with another divisional win, though not without a fight.

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