Blake Krass makes his straight-up picks for every Week 10 NFL game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
These are my picks to win every Week 10 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 10 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Bills over Dolphins
The Bills are coming off a massive win over the Chiefs. They are 2-0 since their bye week, crushing the Panthers the week prior. Buffalo now holds that pivotal head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs, which could determine the No. 1 seed in the AFC. However, they still need to ensure that they win their own division, which means these AFC East games are all-important. Any momentum the Dolphins picked up by finally getting a win was crushed when they were steamrolled by the Ravens last week. The Bills should do the same here.
Broncos over Raiders
The Broncos have won six straight games, and they lead a very competitive AFC West division. The Chargers and Chiefs will continue to chase them all season, making these games against Las Vegas must-wins. On Thursday Night Football, the Broncos should use their elite defense to shut down the poor Raiders offense. As long as Bo Nix plays mistake-free football, this should be a comfortable win for Denver.
Lions over Commanders
The Lions are in need of a win after dropping one to the Vikings last week. The NFC North is arguably the best division in football, and Detroit can’t afford slip-ups if it hopes to win a division title. The Commanders are in total disarray, with Jayden Daniels now expected to miss a few weeks. Washington already needed a miracle to get back to the postseason after its early-season struggles, so things look bleak. Star receiver Terry McLaurin is also expected to miss more time, making things even harder on Marcus Mariota. Detroit should take care of business in this game.
Seahawks over Cardinals
The Seahawks have proven to have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season. They lead the league in drop back success rate and rank second in EPA/drop back. Sam Darnold has carried over his success from Minnesota last season and hit new levels in Seattle. The Seattle defense ranks seventh in EPA/play and is also playing at a high level. The Cardinals have looked better under Jacoby Brissett, but at home, Seattle should still get the win here.
Panthers over Saints
Carolina has won four of its past five games and is lingering for a playoff position. Their schedule starts to get tougher down the stretch, so this is a must-win spot against New Orleans if they want to remain in the postseason hunt. The Saints’ offense did not look any better with Tyler Shough at the helm last week, and it should struggle against a Carolina defense that ranks sixth in success rate. Bryce Young is playing solid football and should get his team the win at home.
Medium Confidence
Ravens over Vikings
The Ravens are back and making a playoff push. Lamar Jackson picked up a win in his first game back on the field. Now, he has extended rest to get back in sync with his receivers. The Vikings have found ways to win games with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback, but they are outmatched in this spot. The Baltimore offense should be too much for McCarthy to keep up with.
Bears over Giants
The Bears are winning games under Ben Johnson that they would have lost in past seasons. Chicago is in the race for the NFC North and needs to win games like this one to stay in that race. The Giants don’t look like the same team since losing Cam Skattebo. The offense is missing an edge, and the defense is starting to wear down. The Bears now have a top-ten offense by EPA/play. While they haven’t been great defensively, they rank much higher than the Giants. If this game turns into a high-scoring affair, the Bears have more firepower to get the win.
Colts over Falcons
The Colts sent the message that they are all-in after trading for Sauce Gardner at the deadline. They acquired a lockdown corner to slow down Drake London just before this matchup against one of the league’s best receivers. The Colts finally had a bad performance last week against the Steelers. However, the Falcons have continuously found ways to lose games this season. This one might be tight, but the Colts’ dominant running game should be enough to secure them a win.
Packers over Eagles
The Packers and Eagles face off in a battle of two of the NFC’s top teams on Monday night. This should be an epic contest, but the Packers are the more complete team at the moment. Green Bay ranks third in offensive EPA/play and should be able to score against the Eagles. The Eagles’ defense ranks 17th in EPA/play, nowhere near the numbers they were at last season. The Lambeau home-field advantage should be the added edge to ensure the Packers win this one.
Coin-Flip Games
Rams over 49ers
The Rams and 49ers always have great showdowns. Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan are two of the best offensive minds in football. This season, they are locked into a tight NFC West battle, along with the Seahawks. The 49ers have been finding ways to win on the back of Christian McCaffrey and a great coaching job from Shanahan. However, the Rams look the more dominant side. They lead the league in defensive EPA/play and rank sixth in offensive EPA/play. They are a complete team and should get the win in this rivalry matchup.
Buccaneers over Patriots
Tampa Bay is coming off a much-needed bye week. The Buccaneers sit at 6-2 atop the NFC South. However, they were winning some games by the skin of their teeth. They were also starting to rack up some injuries. The bye gave them a chance to get healthier and re-focus before the second half of the season. This is a big game against a tough Patriots team. New England just survived a massive scare at home against the Falcons. On the road in Tampa Bay, they won’t be so lucky. The Buccaneers should find a way to win this one.
Texans over Jaguars
The Texans looked like the better team last week against Denver, but struggled to move the ball once CJ Stroud went down. Stroud is in the concussion protocol and is questionable to play in this game. That is what is keeping it low on my confidence rankings. If Stroud does play, the Texans should win this one at home. Even if Davis Mills gets the start, he should look better after a full week of practice. The Texans’ elite defense should get them the win here.
Jets over Browns
The Jets traded away two of their best defensive players as they look to build towards the future. However, under a new coaching staff, they are by no means “tanking.” The Jets finally got their first win of the season, then took that positive momentum into the bye week. Their pass defense is a concern without Sauce Gardner, but that shouldn’t be much of a problem against Dillon Gabriel. The Jets’ offense has started to find some life, and they ended up keeping Breece Hall at the deadline. This offense has more juice than Cleveland’s and could be the difference in a true coin-flip game.
Chargers over Steelers
The Chargers are hanging in the AFC West race, just one game behind the Broncos. They have been riddled with injuries this season. However, Jim Harbaugh has done well to keep his team together. Mike Tomlin got his team fired up to defeat the Colts last week, but this could be a bit of an emotional letdown spot traveling out to the west coast. The Chargers have been the more consistent team this season, so I will back them to win a tight game against the Steelers.