When you’re right 52 percent of the time, you’re wrong 48 percent of the time. Those wise words, which I came up with myself and absolutely did not steal from season three Simpsons episode “Lisa the Greek,” are soft solace after our betting hot streak came to an abrupt end in Week 9.

It didn’t have to be that way. But our last wager of the week was a two-unit bet on the Dallas Cowboys and, well, time makes fools of us all (but especially Jerry Jones). Thus, a 3-6 week gave way to a 3.5-unit loss (and, frankly, needed some extremely Bears-Bengals shenanigans just to get there).

Week 10 offers a chance to get back in the air. Despite the turbulence, our resident NFL expert the Rhode Island Scumbag and I remain cruising at a profitable altitude. We’re up seven units at the halfway point of the regular season and have learned the valuable lesson to never bet on, or against, the Arizona Cardinals. 2025’s Schrodinger’s Team will not be making an appearance in this week’s bets. The Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars, however, will.

Week 10’s Scumbag bets follow. All Scumbag analysis is in blockquotes. My non-Scumbag picks clock in at the end. And if you’re doing some Sunday morning lineup tinkering on the fantasy side of things, we’ve got you covered there as well.

That was a rough one. Two of the picks (Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs) were chasing points all day and never seemed to be a threat. The New England Patriots were in command for most of the first half against the Atlanta Falcons, but a fumble in the closing minutes of the first half flipped the script.

We find ourselves in a three-unit hole after the past two weeks. No one ever said this was going to be easy. Let’s dust ourselves off and dive into some picks that I think will be profitable for Week 10.

New Orleans enters this week ranked 24th in rushing yards against per game on the season. Carolina is fifth in rushing yards/game. You know where I’m going with this.

Rico Dowdle has been a revelation for Carolina. His reign of terror on NFL defenses should continue. Tyler Shough didn’t look completely lost against a good Los Angeles Rams defense in his debut, but that game wasn’t close. He now gets his second start sans Rashid Shaheed, who will be wearing blue and green moving forward. I’ll lay the points in the hopes that Carolina builds on its huge victory against the Packers last week.

Scumbag Lock of the Week II: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans UNDER 37.5 (one unit)

The Jaguars head to Houston to take on their vaunted defense without Travis Hunter or (potentially) Brian Thomas Jr. Houston is rolling out Davis Mills against them. What does this mean to me? Hammer the under.

It was a low scoring affair (17-10 Jaguars) the last time these teams met, and that was WITH the full allotment of offensive talent for both sides. Coupled with the fact that Houston has hit the under in six of eight games this season makes this a comfortable choice for me. Let’s not overthink it.

Scumbag Lock of the Week III: New York Giants at Chicago Bears OVER 46.5 (one unit)

In a stark contrast to our previous game, this one should be a high scoring affair. Neither team has done much to slow down opponents that have any offensive prowess. The Jaxson Dart-led Giants have easily hit the over in four straight games and now face off against a Bears team that posted 47 against the defense-impaired Bengals.

The Giants tend to give up points in bunches themselves. The Bears should be able to capitalize. Kyle Monangai could have another great game. In the past three weeks, the Giants have been gashed by JK Dobbins, Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey. Monangai could make it four in a row.

Scumbag Lock of the Week IV: Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers (one unit)

Let’s round out Week 10 with a road underdog. The Packers are coming off a stinging loss to the Carolina Panthers, a game in which they were HEAVILY favored. However, the run game proved to be too much for them and Rico Dowdle ran wild. Now, Philadelphia and their rushing attack come to town.

Yes, I am aware that the Eagles have struggled at times with their run game this season. Saquon has shown flashes of his last year’s self, but hasn’t been as consistent. I’m banking on the bye week being a good reset for the Eagles in terms of getting their offense in order. Tank Bigsby looked good in spurts in week 8 when filling in for Barkley, so even if Philly’s lead back isn’t 100 percent, I still have confidence that the Eagles will take care of business. They were underdogs four times last season and went 4-0 in those games. This will mark the first opportunity of 2025 for the Eagles to continue that trend.

Last week: 1-3, -2 unitsSeason to date: 21-17 (.533), +2.4 unitsMy non-Scumbag bets: Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 at the Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 at the Los Angeles Chargers, Chicago Bears -3.5 vs. the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. the New England Patriots

Saquon Barkley finally looked like his 2024 self in Week 8. Granted, he left that game with a lower body injury, but it was minor — Barkley himself said he would have gone back in had Philly not been frogstomping the Giants. Now he’s had a full bye to prep for a Packers defense that never gets the clutch run stops it needs.

The Chargers are without both their All-Pro caliber offensive tackles. The Pittsburgh defense had five sacks last week against what had been one of the best offensive lines in football. Los Angeles will counter with lots of short routes and quick-hit plays to get the ball out of Justin Herbert’s hands quickly. That’s going to set up third downs in a stadium likely to be filled with more black and yellow than powder blue. I don’t know if I can trust the Steelers, but this line is solid value.

I have concerns about Caleb Williams standing up against the Giants’ capable pass rush. Then again, last week’s showdown with the San Francisco 49ers gave New York the opportunity to turn Mac Jones into a pile of goo and he threw five incompletions the whole day while being sacked once for every touchdown he threw (two). The Bears have to prove things are different in 2025 then they’ve been since, uh, (gestures broadly) and first year head coach Ben Johnson understands how momentum seems to evaporate more quickly in Chicago than anywhere else. After last week’s scare in Cincinnati, expect another big offensive performance.

A decent chunk of my stack this season has come betting on the Patriots. But the value isn’t there this week, on the road against an opponent coming off a bye. New England is such a minor threat in the pass rush that the Falcons opted to eschew Bijan Robinson carries to spam Michael Penix Jr. throws and it was a biffed extra point away from working. Now that unit has to face Football Psychopath Baker Mayfield? Brother, the amount of hate-filled Baker texts in the Rhode Island Scumbag League fantasy chat is going to be egregious.

Last week: 2-3, -1.5 unitsSeason to date: 19-19-1 (.500), +3.6 units