It was just a shocking day of football heading into the late games, when order was restored.
Three teams supposedly tanking for the No. 1 pick in the draft all won, led by the Dolphins, who blasted the Bills 30-13. The game wasn’t even as close as the blowout score. So let’s start there before getting into all the games on Sunday, excluding the Sunday night matchup.
The Bills’ problem is their best receiver, tight end Dalton Kincaid, blocks like a wide receiver. So the limited snaps he gets are almost all passing plays. That’s a tell. When he’s off the field, there isn’t a wide receiver who commands attention from the defense, forcing Josh Allen to play perfect football surrounded by his cadre of out-of-focus guys. Allen is the lead singer, but there is no “guitarist with mystique.”
The Bills collapsed defensively, allowing the only two players who could beat them to do just that. De’Von Achane had two long TDs and dominated along with Jaylen Waddle (who the Bills reportedly could have acquired if they had bumped their offer of a 2027 No. 1 pick to a 2026 No. 1). The pair combined for 309 yards and three touchdowns.
Early Games: Statement from Henderson; Jefferson in a fog
Atlanta vs. Indianapolis (Germany): The Falcons/Colts matchup in Germany turned out to be a fun game, but it was hard to watch. Kurt Warner must have said, “I bet he wishes he could have that throw back” on Michael Penix passes about 17 times. Warner was just disgusted by Penix, who is really rough right now. And the Falcons traded their 2026 first-round pick, which is No. 9 overall as I type this, to the Rams.
Penix is very scatter-armed and sits in the pocket forever, almost as if frozen in amber, seemingly unaware that he is allowed to escape and buy time. I don’t get how Bijan Robinson is on the sideline so much — no slight to Tyler Allgeier. Kyle Pitts dropped a huge pass early and there is zero threat in the passing game outside of Drake London. Everyone here is getting fired.
London did most of his damage against zone, which raises the question of the Colts’ wisdom of paying so much for a shutdown corner when you don’t want to play man-to-man. But this is their journey. Daniel Jones was sacked seven times, giving him 15 in his past three games. He fumbled three times (losing one). I’m becoming a Jones skeptic, I confess.
Michael Pittman needed a proof of life well into the game. Alec Pierce scoring a touchdown was inevitable and he will likely continue to regress positively, as I said last week. He leads the league in yards per catch for the second-straight year. Jonathan Taylor’s game-winning 83-yard TD run is going to be on his Hall of Fame reel.
NY Giants at Chicago: Jaxson Dart has moxie but he’s getting killed out there and has to dial back the running. The blue tent now qualifies as Dart’s second home, according to IRS occupancy rules. When he came out of the game, it was “Murder She Wrote.” But Dart seemed to have been concussed on this hit and allowed to continue before subsequently being knocked out cold and losing a fumble that ended up basically losing the game. That was the fourth time the Giants have blown a 10-point lead on the road. Be prepared for Dart to miss next week’s game.
As we feared, the Bears went to a true committee in the backfield and then the hot hand, who was D’Andre Swift. And Swift got the first chance, too. Getting the first chance is a huge advantage, especially because Swift is pretty good. As far as I could tell, DJ Moore (0 catches on four targets) was not hurt, he just put the hurt on everyone who drafted him.
Baltimore at Minnesota: The best thing I can say about J.J. McCarthy right now is that he’s like when you have to teach someone to do some task and it’s way more work to do that than to just do it yourself. Maybe in the long run, this pays off for the Vikings. I’m not going to say that McCarthy will be hopeless, just that he’s hopeless now and has crushed Minnesota’s season. Justin Jefferson (37 yards on 11 targets) seems to be just mailing it in now.
Maybe I’m too old, but the McCarthy quote about how, when he’s playing, he turns into another person — his alter ego is called “Nine” — just seems weird. But if you’re playing well, you’re allowed to be weird. That makes you “eccentric” or “a character.” McCarthy seems too amped up and has way too much velocity on most of his throws, decreasing his accuracy. It’s shocking how poorly McCarthy throws at this level.
The Vikings’ defense played great, holding Lamar Jackson in check — limited him to four field goals for much of the game. I want to say Derrick Henry is done but he is averaging 4.9 per carry. It definitely doesn’t feel like it, though.
Cleveland at NY Jets: At one point in the first half, the Jets had 14 points on four total yards of offense. The game went as expected with their offense, but they had two special teams return TDs — in the first quarter. The less said about these two offenses, the better.
New England at Tampa Bay: By my count, the Patriots had five plays of 25-plus yards and the Bucs had one. That’s going to be a win 97 times out of 100. Just an extra big play or two is massive — 5-1 is a massacre. It was a miracle this game was even that close. The big news was TreVeyon Henderson, who was massive, averaging over 10 yards per carry and scoring twice. This should change usage expectations, but we keep landing here and nothing changes to the degree it should. Mack Hollins had another big week. He’s posted 89 receiving yards and Sunday’s 106 (on 10 targets) in two of the past three weeks. We won’t talk about the other week. I still like adding Hollins, who led the Bills in receiving TDs last year.
The Bucs miss Mike Evans but will Evans, at his age, ever return to what he was through last year? Hey, remember when Baker Mayfield was talked up as an MVP candidate?
Jacksonville at Houston: In this matchup of starting quarterbacks, Davis Mills killed Trevor Lawrence with a very gutty performance that included three fourth-quarter TD drives. Mills once was a five-star recruit of the pocket-passer variety (of course, he won the game with a rushing TD). I didn’t think he was worse than C.J. Stroud and the results back me up. I’m not saying Stroud should be benched, but a three-point swing in the betting line for losing Stroud is silly. He’s not good.
Nico Collins got going finally and Woody Marks made some nice runs. The offense seemed functional. The Jaguars never could muster much of an attack, though I understand the Texans have a top defense. Still, Lawrence probably is just a bust. Stroud’s one-way ticket to Palookaville is punched, but he can still reclaim his former promise, though that’s far from certain.
New Orleans at Carolina: Tyler Shough showed me something. He combined with Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson for 196 yards and two scores on just 12 targets. This is predictably the narrowest passing tree in football, but I’d actually expect a 60% market share for Olave and Johnson and they only had 44% (more on that in Tuesday’s “Market Share Report”). I love the white Saints uniforms, too.
Late Games: Is Seattle the best team ever? Stafford’s historic season
Arizona at Seattle: None of these late games were very interesting, but let me put my Seahawks note here, which is admittedly a broader NFL take. Seattle had 13.4 yards per pass play against Arizona and allowed 4.1. Winning this stat by any margin since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger means you win 74% of games. And there is a winner in every game (unlike turnovers) and the differential is relatively small (usually) — not 2-to-1 or 3-to-1 like turnover differential can be.
Coming into the week, — not including this Net Yards per Pass Attempt (NY/A) massacre of a historic magnitude — the Seahawks were not merely No. 1 this year in NY/A differential at plus-3.5. That would be the best number in the entire Super Bowl Era (the 1991 Redskins were plus-3.2). I’m not saying the Seahawks are the best team since 1970 (though I’m not NOT saying that). I am saying Seattle is the No. 1 team in football in the most important stat and should be a heavy Super Bowl favorite. As for the game, it was over before it started — no takeaways.
LA Rams at San Francisco: The Niners tried to come back but the Rams are too powerful. We got four more passing TDs from Matthew Stafford, now on pace for 47 scoring strikes. On the other side, Mac Jones is going to be starting somewhere next year, maybe for the Jets, who have a ton of cap room, or maybe for the Niners. He’s middle market with a chance to be upper-middle market and thus will get middle-market QB money — the biggest bargain in football. He was very good against a Rams defense that is one of the league’s best. George Kittle converted all nine of his targets and his TD defied the laws of physics. I really like Jauan Jennings for the rest of the year, if he’s available.
Detroit at Washington: You felt like Detroit could have named the score. Offensive tackle Penei Sewell got rolled up on but returned to the game. Jahmyr Gibbs finished outside the top 30 RBs in two of his previous three games, but he exploded in Week 10. The Lions have played forever and he’s the second player in team history to have at least eight touchdowns in each of his first three seasons — the other was Barry Sanders. Gibbs is unreal but here’s another guy taken with a premium pick who has his workload curbed. If I spend that kind of draft capital on a back, he’s going to rest in the offseason. If Sanders could be a bell cow, why can’t Gibbs? This game was another reminder that you have to suck it up and play Jameson Williams every week.