Pitt stormed back into ACC contention with a five-game winning streak, thanks to the heroics of first-year quarterback Mason Heintschel. What looked like a lost season has now become very interesting, with the Panthers having an outside shot at the ACC Championship game in Charlotte. The Panthers control their own destiny, but they will need a little help along the way.

Pitt currently sits at 7-2 overall and is 5-1 in the conference. The ACC is extremely tight this year, with four other teams also having one loss — Georgia Tech, Virginia, SMU and Duke. 

The next two weeks will thin out the field quite a bit. Virginia faces Duke this Saturday, while Pitt takes on Notre Dame. Next week, Louisville faces SMU while Pitt heads to Atlanta to take on Georgia Tech. Three of the five teams currently with one ACC loss will have a second after Nov. 22. The week after that, Miami will come to Pittsburgh, likely having only two conference losses. 

Scenario A: Pitt wins out

Obviously, winning out is the best possible scenario for the Panthers. They would finish 10-2 with an 8-1 conference record, likely good enough to punch their ticket to the conference championship game. But if both Virginia and SMU also win out, then that could spell trouble for Pitt, and all three teams would tie at the top. 

The ACC’s tiebreaker policy states that ties between three teams are settled by head-to-head win percentage against each other, but none of these teams played each other in the regular season. The next tiebreaker is the record against common opponents. One common opponent the three teams will have is Louisville, Pitt’s only ACC loss so far. In that case, the ACC championship will take place between Virginia and SMU since they will have both defeated Louisville.

On Nov. 22, Pitt fans should root for the Cardinals to take down SMU on the road. If Louisville wins, Pitt’s place in the ACC championship is guaranteed if they win out. 

Scenario B: Pitt goes 2-1, losing to Notre Dame

This scenario wouldn’t end the College Football Playoff hopes, but the games against Georgia Tech and Miami would then become even more important. The Playoff Committee would likely not invite a three-loss Pitt team that didn’t win the conference, so a loss to Notre Dame means Pitt must win the ACC in order to make the College Football Playoffs.

Pitt would then be in the same scenario as in Situation A, where they have to win against both Georgia Tech and Miami and Louisville must beat SMU.

Scenario C: Pitt goes 2-1, losing to Miami

The hope of making it to the ACC Championship isn’t over, but Pitt needs some help. SMU would need to beat Louisville and lose to California. SMU lost to Miami, so the record against common opponents wouldn’t affect the Panthers. Pitt has to beat Georgia Tech in this scenario to give them a leg up. Duke would also need to beat Virginia but lose to either UNC or Wake Forest. Duke lost to Georgia Tech, so Pitt would have a better record against common opponents in this scenario as well.

If Virginia wins, then Pitt fans will need to pray that Virginia Tech can pull off an upset in the final week of the season. From there, all the teams in the ACC will have two losses, and Pitt will have enough wins against common opponents of the teams at the top to make the ACC Championship. 

Scenario D: Pitt goes 2-1, losing to Georgia Tech

The hopes of making it to the ACC Championship are likely over in this scenario, as Georgia Tech would sit a game up on Pitt with a better head-to-head record with one week left in the season. All other teams would have to lose out, and Boston College would have to have a massive upset win over Georgia Tech this weekend. 

Scenario E: Pitt goes 1-2, beating Notre Dame

The ACC Championship hopes are definitely over in this scenario. A loss against both Georgia Tech and Miami means Pitt will get leapfrogged in the standings. No amount of upsets could help Pitt in this situation. Additionally, there is no way an 8-4 ACC team gets an at-large bid from the College Playoff Committee. 

Scenario F: Pitt loses out

This wouldn’t even be surprising — just another typical season from Pitt football.

Jokes aside, while there are many things out of Pitt’s control, they are in a better position in the conference than most. All they can do now is beat the teams in front of them and hope for the best.

Grab your popcorn and get ready for the end-of-season drama — it will be a finish unlike any other in recent memory.