Oklahoma’s path to its first College Football Playoff appearance since the 2019 season is dependent on beating Alabama in Week 12 and continuing its hot streak down the stretch … with some help along the way.

While SEC Championship Game hopes are slim given the number of teams currently ahead of the Sooners (7-2) in the league standings, Oklahoma has a strong resume and ranks No. 8 nationally in game control, one of the preferred metrics used by the selection committee. That’s fourth-best in the SEC and only Texas has a tougher remaining schedule than the Sooners (7th nationally).

Oklahoma’s College Football Playoff pathRemaining path

Oklahoma (7-2) faces a playoff elimination game of sorts on Saturday at fourth-ranked Alabama, an opportunity to give the selection committee another data point that would enhance the Sooners’ overall grade with a victory. The narrative that 10 wins in the SEC is going to automatically result in a playoff bid this season doesn’t hold water when you consider how many teams could potentially reach that perceived magic number. 

Oklahoma sits in a solid position but needs to win out to give itself a chance. A loss by No. 10 Texas, ninth-ranked Notre Dame or No. 8 Oregon would strengthen the Sooners’ shot at an at-large berth as well, and the Fighting Irish and Ducks each play one ranked opponent down the stretch. Texas plays two (Georgia and Texas A&M).

Vegas Says

As the “first team out” in the current bracket in Week 12, the expectation is the Sooners lose at least one of their three remaining contests against Alabama, Missouri and LSU and finish 9-3, just out of the mix. The Sooners are currently at +225 to appear in the 12-team bracket and -290 on missing the playoff, according to FanDuel. Those odds will significantly alter if the Sooners go into Tuscaloosa and win this weekend.

We think …

Oklahoma’s firmly on the playoff bubble and doesn’t not possess a key tiebreaker with Texas following its head-to-head loss to the Longhorns on Oct. 11 in Dallas. That only comes into play if there’s one spot left in the committee’s rankings and it comes down to the two SEC rivals. There’s a better chance of Oklahoma finishing 10-2 than Texas, considering the Longhorns play fifth-ranked Georgia on the road and third-ranked — and unbeaten — Texas A&M at the end of the month.

Data points are vital with the committee and Oklahoma’s nonconference victory over a potential nine-win Michigan is important. That dominant win looks even better if the Wolverines beat Ohio State for a fifth straight season in a couple of weeks, but for now, it’s a quality resume-booster along with the road victory inside Neyland Stadium.

team logo

Sooners Illustrated delivers trusted insider coverage from a four-person staff embedded in Norman. The site brings you daily updates, recruiting scoop, and in-depth team insights. From the action on the field to the pulse of fall camp, VIP members get early access to exclusive intel — like loaded notes from Oklahoma’s first scrimmage and behind-the-scenes stories on players such as Deion Burks as he looks to cap his OU career in style. Join the Sooners Illustrated VIP message board and connect with fellow fans and insiders. Want even more? Unlock all the insider content and features today.