Things suddenly feel a bit brighter for the Miami Dolphins during their week of preparation in Madrid.

At the end of October, the Dolphins fell to 2-7 on the year, parted ways with general manager Chris Grier, and opened November by trading away pass rusher Jaelan Phillips. Seemingly, a white flag was being flown in Miami to signal that the 2025 season was lost.

The Dolphins’ shocking 30-13 upset of the Buffalo Bills flipped that perception on its head.

Now Miami is getting a bit more healthy just in time for an upcoming slate of opponents that couldn’t be less intimidating. But did the Dolphins dig themselves too deep of a hole?

ESPN gives Dolphins a 1 in 200 shot at the playoffs

The list of teams to dig from a hole this deep is exceedingly brief. The 2020 Washington Football Team pulled it off, starting 2-7 before reaching the playoffs. But that’s because a 7-9 record was enough for WFT to win an abysmal NFC East that year. The 8-2 New England Patriots and 6-3 Bills won’t afford the Dolphins that luxury.

The only realistic path for the Dolphins is a wild card berth and “realistic” is a stretch. ESPN’s FPI puts Miami’s postseason chances at 0.5 percent, which is awfully low, but still ahead of the six teams that haven’t yet recorded a third win.

Still, a climb back to .500 would, at the very least, put the Dolphins on the doorstep heading into the holidays. Can they do it?

Miami is favored Sunday against the Washington Commanders, who will be without Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin as they try to end a five-game losing streak. Then, after a Week 12 bye, the Dolphins will face the New Orleans Saints and New York Jets — two teams currently in line to pick in the top five of the 2026 NFL draft.

If the Dolphins can find wins in those three games, they’ll enter a mid-December matchup (currently scheduled for Monday Night Football) against the Pittsburgh Steelers with a 6-7 record.

A 9-8 record might not be enough

Even with the NFL’s 2020-21 addition of a third wild card berth per conference, a winning record is still no guarantee for the postseason.

Last season, both the 10-7 Seattle Seahawks and 9-8 Cincinnati Bengals were left on the outside looking in.

For now, the 7-3 Los Angeles Chargers, 6-3 Bills, and 5-4 Jacksonville Jaguars sit in the AFC’s three wild card slots. The 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs, 4-5 Baltimore Ravens, and 4-5 Houston Texans are hot on their tails.

It’s possible the only way the Dolphins jockey through and ahead of that tough list of contenders is by ending the season on an eight-game win streak. That’s almost certainly too much to ask.

Miami’s unlikely win against the Bills was a surprising high note that injected life into a dead season. But it’s hard to envision a scenario where the Dolphins turn things all the way around.