Shift4 Payments (FOUR) recently announced a high-profile partnership to provide commerce technology at Paycor Stadium for the Cincinnati Bengals. This move comes shortly after the company released third quarter earnings and updated its revenue guidance for 2025.
See our latest analysis for Shift4 Payments.
Between securing the Bengals partnership and rolling out new revenue forecasts, Shift4 Payments has certainly stayed in the spotlight lately. Yet despite surging sales, the stock has had a rough stretch, with a 1-year total shareholder return of -26.85% and a year-to-date share price return of -33.30%. Still, with a three-year total shareholder return above 50%, momentum could quickly shift as business wins accumulate and sentiment improves.
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With shares still sitting well below recent highs despite robust revenue growth and a major new sports partnership, investors are left to consider whether Shift4 Payments is trading at a bargain or if the market has already priced in future gains.
Shift4 Payments’ most popular narrative estimates a fair value of $96.67, far above the recent close of $72.26. With shares trading at such a discount, the narrative projects strong catalysts ahead if the assumptions hold true.
The accelerating global shift to cashless and digital payments continues to expand transaction volumes in key Shift4 verticals, hospitality, sports/entertainment, luxury retail, and underpins long-term double-digit revenue growth projections. Ongoing consolidation in the payments industry increases Shift4’s acquisition-driven growth potential and competitive positioning, underpinning further operating leverage and possible net margin expansion through scale and integration synergies.
Curious what’s fueling this bullish outlook? One assumption has analysts expecting sustained growth rates and margin expansion that defy sector trends. Ready to unpack the ambitious forecasts and the bold profit targets that set this narrative apart?
Result: Fair Value of $96.67 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, growing international competition and potential setbacks in integrating recent acquisitions continue to loom as key risks that could derail growth expectations.
Find out about the key risks to this Shift4 Payments narrative.
While the fair value model points to significant upside, a quick check of the price-to-earnings ratio tells another story. Shift4 trades at 29.6 times earnings, which is much higher than the industry average of 13.3 times and even above its fair ratio of 28.1 times. This gap hints at a valuation premium, raising the question of whether investors are too optimistic or if the market expects more.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
NYSE:FOUR PE Ratio as at Nov 2025
If these perspectives do not align with your own, or you would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can create your own narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Shift4 Payments research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include FOUR.
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