The Washington Commanders (3-7) and the Miami Dolphins (3-7) meet Sunday in Week 11 at Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, Spain. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Commanders vs. Dolphins odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Commanders’ slide continued in Week 10 with a fifth straight loss, falling 44-22 to the Detroit Lions. Washington couldn’t cover as an 8.5-point home underdog as the Over (48.5) easily hit. The defense was shredded for 546 yards, while QB Marcus Mariota threw for 213 yards and 2 TDs in a lopsided defeat.

The Dolphins picked up a big win in Week 10, rolling past the Buffalo Bills 30-13 as 8-point home underdogs as the Under (50) hit. RB De’Von Achane fueled the upset, erupting for 174 rushing yards and 2 TDs, and 51 receiving yards and another score. Miami’s defense forced 3 turnovers to seal a dominant all-around performance.

The Dolphins lead the all-time series 10-6, including a 45-15 win in the last meeting (2023).

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Commanders vs. Dolphins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:44 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Commanders +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Dolphins -150 (bet $150 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Commanders +2.5 (-105) | Dolphins -2.5 (-115)Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Commanders vs. Dolphins key injuries

Commanders

WR Treylon Burks (finger) outQB Jayden Daniels (elbow) outS Will Harris (ankle) outDE Drake Jackson (knee) outLB Ale Kaho (concussion) outLB Jordan Magee (knee) questionableWR Terry McLaurin (quadricep) outTE Ben Sinnott (ankle) out

Dolphins

LB Bradley Chubb (foot) questionableCB Rasul Douglas (foot, ankle) questionableWR D’Wayne Eskridge (shoulder) questionableRT Austin Jackson (toe) outCommanders vs. Dolphins picks and predictionsPrediction

Dolphins 34, Commanders 21

PASS.

I have no faith in this Commanders defense stopping anyone, which is why I’ll take my wager to the spread.

BET DOLPHINS -2.5 (-115).

Washington hasn’t won since Oct. 5, and its defense has fallen apart more each week. The Commanders are giving up 35.8 points per game during their 5-game slide and nearly 395 yards per contest on the season. Losing standout DT Daron Payne to suspension only widens the cracks in a unit that just surrendered 546 yards to Detroit.

Miami, meanwhile, has rediscovered its offensive rhythm. The Dolphins have won 2 of their last 3 and topped 30 points in both victories. WR Jaylen Waddle is heating up with 3 straight 80+ yard performances and 2 TD, while Achane has been one of the league’s most explosive weapons—averaging more than 100 rushing yards and over 30 receiving yards across his last 5 outings.

Dan Quinn may bring structure to Washington’s defense, but he can’t magically transform personnel that continues to get overwhelmed. And without Daniels, the Commanders lose the one player capable of masking their issues. Mariota is steady, but he can’t compensate for this many holes.

Miami has the speed, the efficiency, and the momentum to control this matchup. Dolphins -2.5 is the right side—expect them to win by more than a touchdown.

BET OVER 47.5 (-110).

Their last matchup cleared the total, and recent trends point the same direction. The Commanders have hit the Over in 3 of their last 4 as their collapsing defense continues to give up 30-plus per game during their losing streak. Miami has gone Over in 6 of its last 9 and scored 30 or more in 2 of its last 3. Even with injuries, Washington still averages 22.3 points, making the Over the play.

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