Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 11’s game between the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers.
MetLife in mid-November feels more like a reset than a showcase. New York just fired Brian Daboll after another collapse, slid the headset to Mike Kafka, and now hands Jameis Winston the keys with the season stuck at 3–6. Green Bay arrives 7–2, carrying a top ten scoring margin and a defense that allows 19.6 points per game. The market sits Packers –7 with a total of 41.5, expecting Green Bay’s stability to matter more than New York’s chaos. I see a different edge: the way both teams want to play pulls this toward a grinder under the number. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 11’s game between the the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Green Bay’s identity has drifted from fireworks toward attrition. The Packers average 23.7 points per game and 213 total points, but that hides a recent slide: only 20 combined points the last two weeks, including a 10–7 slog against Philadelphia. The offensive staff has leaned into a Josh Jacobs run game that sits squarely on early downs, with Jordan Love functioning more as caretaker than ceiling-raiser. Against a Giants front allowing 152.1 rushing yards per game, 5.5 yards per carry, and fourteen rushing touchdowns, LaFleur does not need tempo; he needs body blows and clock. Heavy shotgun, wide zone, and play-action crossers can move chains without demanding explosive volume. That is exactly how a favorite wins while quietly suffocating the total.
New York’s defense is bad in the aggregate, but even bad defenses can create under paths when the opponent chooses to grind. The Giants surrender 27.3 points per game and 396.4 yards, yet the explosives column does much of that damage: already twelve runs of at least twenty yards and plenty of short fields off offensive mistakes. Jacobs is capable of ripping one or two, but Green Bay’s current form says controlled gains, not track meet. If the Packers stay ahead of the sticks with four- and six-yard carries, the clock churns and possessions shrink. A 41.5 total becomes heavy when each team only sees nine or ten meaningful drives.
Kafka’s side of the ball adds volatility but not necessarily points. Winston’s 2024 profile still looks like Winston: five of seven starts with at least forty attempts, yards and touchdowns in volume, but a turnover timeline that never truly leaves. Here the matchup is a mixed bag. On the plus side, Wan’Dale Robinson’s Week 10 PWOPR of 0.678 ranked ninth among receivers, and Green Bay plays man on 34.9% of snaps, third-highest in the league, with opponents throwing at a top ten rate. That screams opportunity for option routes and crossers if protection holds. On the negative side, the Packers defense allows only 19.6 points per game and 176 total points, with a run unit giving up 91.8 rushing yards per game and under 4.2 yards per carry. Saquon Barkley owns 65.6% of Giants running-back carries on 149 attempts, yet the run game still sits in the bottom third in efficiency. If Winston is forced into long-yardage dropbacks behind shaky protection, the most likely outcomes are sacks, punts, and a couple of backbreaking turnovers—more clock drain than shootout fuel.
Packers vs. Giants pick, best bet
The over case is honest. Green Bay could shred that Giants run defense early, force Kafka into full-on hurry-up, and let Winston’s aggression swing the game past the number with both explosives and giveaways. A short field or two for the Packers, plus one Wan’Dale breakaway against heavy man, can turn something like 24–13 into 31–17 quickly. There is also the human factor: first game for a new head coach, a veteran quarterback playing with nothing to lose, and a crowd that will roar for every fourth-down decision. That cocktail often pushes coaches to aggression, and aggression sometimes spikes scoring.
I still prefer the under because the most stable parts of both teams drag the game down rather than up. Green Bay’s defense tackles, handles assignments, and has lived comfortably under twenty allowed most weeks. The Packers offense has willingly traded pace for control, especially since the injuries to Tucker Kraft, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed trimmed the pass-game menu. New York’s run defense is awful, but that just encourages LaFleur to call a game that bleeds the clock on his terms. On the other sideline, Kafka inherits an offense with EPA around –0.02 and a 41.3% success rate; that is not a unit ready to live in the thirties against a top ten scoring defense on minimal practice time with a new quarterback.
The script I expect starts conservative and never fully loosens. Green Bay leans on Jacobs into light boxes, uses play-action to steal a few intermediate conversions, then happily punts from midfield rather than forcing throws into bracketed looks. The Giants respond with Barkley draws, quick game to Wan’Dale against man, and the occasional Winston deep shot, but stalled red-zone trips and third-and-long sacks keep the output capped. One or two short fields might show up either way; the structure still points to a slog more than a shootout.
Under 41.5 is the bet, with a projected 23–13 Packers win that keeps the margin clear and the total comfortably below the number.
Best bet: Giants vs. Packers u41.5 total points (-105)
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For a prop lean, Wan’Dale Robinson 7+ receptions at +145 is the aggressive way to play the Giants passing script. His Week 10 PWOPR sat at 0.678, ninth among receivers, and his role fits Green Bay’s 34.9% man rate and low zone usage, where option routes and crossers become cheap answers. The Packers have faced a top eight opponent pass rate, and Kafka with Winston should lean into that, especially as Barkley runs into a top ten run defense allowing only 91.8 rushing yards per game. If the Giants chase most of the night, Winston’s history of five games with forty-plus attempts in seven 2024 starts funnels raw volume Robinson’s way. Short-area completions against man keep Winston on schedule, keep the clock moving for the under, and give Wan’Dale a live path to eight or nine catches often enough to justify the 7+ ladder at this price.
Best prop lean: Wan’Dale Robinson 7+ receptions (+145)
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