Brendan O’Sullivan provides his top player prop bets for Sunday’s Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans matchup.
The Colts have a stronghold on the AFC South lead heading into Week 11, so the Texans and Titans are fighting for a Wild Card spot/draft pick.
The Titans are looking for the latter as they’re 1-8, which is sole possession for the worst record in the NFL. They control their fate for the No. 1 pick. Meanwhile, the Texans are 4-5 as the ninth seed in the AFC.
Houston is a 5.5-point favorite and -278 on the moneyline, while Tennessee is +225 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 37.5 points.
Here are my favorite player props for this Week 11 NFL game between the Titans and Texans.
Titans vs. Texans Best Prop Bets
Nico Collins over 72.5 receiving yards (-114)
Davis Mills is starting for the second straight week, but that may not be as much of an issue as many people thought a couple weeks ago. Mills, the backup to C.J. Stroud, led the Texans to a late victory over the Jaguars in Week 10.
He consistently peppered Nico Collins with targets, trusting the No. 1 wide receiver to carry the load offensively. Collins caught 7-of-15 targets for 136 receiving yards. If he can catch more of his targets, his receiving yards line will be very easy to clear. It’s set at 72.5, and he averages 68.8 yards per game.
Most of those games were with Stroud, so this is a different scenario with Mills under center. Mills should continue to find Collins, trusting that the game plan will work two weeks in a row as Houston aims for the playoffs.
Tyjae Spears over 52.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114)
The day that Tyjae Spears finally takes over as the starting running back will be a day to celebrate. I’m a big believer in his ability to be a great starter for the Titans moving forward. Although Tony Pollard is the incumbent, Spears still gets quality touches each week.
Spears had seven carries for 26 yards last week and caught all three of his passes for 36 yards. His value as a rusher hasn’t been very consistent since returning from injury — he’s had yards per carry averages of 3.5, 6.2, 4.4, 6.6 and 3.7. The passing game is where he sets himself apart from Pollard. Spears has caught 13-of-14 targets for 96 yards this year, making at least three catches in four of five games.
One short pass can turn into a 20-yard gain with his speed and agility. That’s why I’m riding with his combo yards in this one.
Dalton Schultz over 35.5 receiving yards (-109)
Dalton Schultz has quietly been performing well for the Texans this year. Through nine games, he has 438 receiving yards, 45 receptions and 59 targets, which ranks second, first and second on the team, respectively.
Mills targeted Schultz 11 times, with the two connecting seven times for 53 yards. This line is very low for Schultz, who has beaten the mark in two straight and four of his last five. While this does conflict with the Collins prop bet, I believe there’s enough yardage to go around for both pass-catchers to thrive on Sunday.