Week 11 in the NFL had no shortage of drama, as many of the early games went down to the wire. 

Out of the gate, the Sunday slate opened up with a back-and-forth affair between the Dolphins and Commanders from Madrid, which required overtime to make Miami the winner. And as we migrated to the early afternoon slate, one-possession games were a theme throughout. The Bears and Texans notched another win in the column thanks to last-second field goals, and the Packers narrowly escaped New York with a victory against the Jameis Winston-led Giants. 

There was plenty to digest throughout the Sunday slate, and there’s a plethora of storylines bursting from all this action. But let’s sift through some of those main storylines and decipher which we should take seriously and the other with grains of salt, as they don’t mean as much as they may seem. 

Dolphins are back in the AFC playoff conversation

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Miami enters its Week 12 bye on a high note. The club has won three of its last four games to move to 4-7 on the season. While that has somewhat righted the ship and cooled the seat under coach Mike McDaniel, this recent surge isn’t going to thrust them back into the playoffs. This positive run could continue out of the bye with matchups against the Saints and Jets (road) in Week 13 and Week 14, but the schedule gets much tougher after that. Assuming they take care of business in those two games and claw to 6-7, the final month will make it difficult for them to get to or exceed .500. They take on the Steelers in Pittsburgh on “Monday Night Football” in Week 15 before back-to-back home games against the Bengals (likely with Joe Burrow back at quarterback) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Then, they wrap up the year in New England against the Patriots. Miami likely won’t be favored in any of those final four games, so this recent upward swing may come in vain with a knockout blow over the final four weeks.

Chargers at risk of missing the playoffs

Overreaction or reality: Reality

That was a rough showing by the Chargers, who were blown out by the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, 35-6. Justin Herbert continues to take his fair share of hits, but the quarterback also laid an egg. He completed 10 of his 18 passes for just 81 yards and an interception. This loss now drops the Chargers to 7-4 on the year, and doesn’t do them any favors in the playoff race. They’ve lost a key head-to-head tiebreaker to Jacksonville (6-4) in the wild card race and still have a daunting schedule in front of them following the Week 12 bye.

The following three opponents for Los Angeles each boast a strong pass rush, which could further exploit the Chargers’ weakness at protecting Herbert. After seeing the offense go silent with him under siege again on Sunday against Jacksonville, their footing in the AFC playoff picture doesn’t feel secure.  

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Overall, McCarthy wasn’t good against Chicago, even as the Vikings nearly pulled off another fourth-quarter comeback against their division rival. McCarthy completed just 16 of his 32 passes for 150 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions. So far, McCarthy has eight interceptions in five career starts and is the first quarterback to record an interception in five straight games to begin his career since Zach Wilson in 2021. Not exactly the company you want to keep in the NFL record books. But does this take us to the point where Minnesota should bench McCarthy? That feels a touch too far, at least right now. The Vikings used a first-round pick on McCarthy in 2024 and moved off of Sam Darnold this offseason to see that selection through. Five total starts is too small a sample size to move off of him and effectively give up hope that he’s their franchise quarterback going forward. It hasn’t looked great, but the organization needs to grit through and give McCarthy the rest of the season before making any long-term proclamations. 

Packers are not a serious Super Bowl threat

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Green Bay once again played down to its competition. While it didn’t result in a loss this time around, the Packers needed a go-ahead touchdown drive and two-point conversion to fend off the New York Giants. Remember, this is a Giants team that had just fired its coach, and their budding star at quarterback, Jaxson Dart, was out with a concussion. Despite that lopsided talent disparity, Green Bay allowed the Jameis Winston-led Giants to post 336 yards of total offense. New York edged out the Packers in total yards and time of possession in Week 11. Again, this is a Giants squad that is going to be in contention for the No. 1 overall pick. When you pair this performance (albeit in a winning effort) with earlier losses this season to the Cleveland Browns and Carolina Panthers, it’s hard to look at the Packers as a serious Super Bowl threat in the NFC at the moment. 

Dave Canales is off the hot seat

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Carolina Panthers (6-5) are back above .500 with a dramatic overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The club completed the season sweep of their division rival and is second in the NFC South, just a game behind the Buccaneers in the loss column (6-4). Carolina has been one of the surprise teams of the 2025 season, and Dave Canales has been getting the most out of his roster, particularly with quarterback Bryce Young. All of that has cooled what had previously been one of the hotter seats in the NFL. However, has Canales taken himself off the hot seat entirely? Not yet. The road in front of the Panthers is very difficult as they face the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams over the next two weeks before their Week 14 bye. Over the final month, they have two divisional matchups against the Buccaneers and a contest against the Seattle Seahawks. That rough schedule in the second half could end the 2025 campaign on a low note, leaving questions about Canales’ future despite this positive run at the moment.