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The Kansas City Chiefs entered Week 11 facing a critical test on the road against the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos. They weren’t able to pass it.
The Broncos earned a 22-19 win over the Chiefs by virtue of a walk-off Wil Lutz field goal. Bo Nix hit Troy Franklin for a 32-yard gain on second-and-8 to set up Lutz’s game-winning 35-yarder.
The victory allowed Denver to improve to 9-2, tying the team once again with the New England Patriots for the best record in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs fell to 5-5 as Patrick Mahomes suffered just his second loss in 15 starts against the Broncos. That will have Kansas City teetering on the edge of the AFC playoff picture with just seven weeks remaining in the 2025 NFL season.
Here’s a look at how Kansas City’s loss to Denver impacts its playoff chances.
Chiefs playoff odds
The Chiefs are presently just on the outside of the AFC playoff picture, ranking ninth in the conference. Despite this, they still have a 54% chance to make the playoffs, according to the NFL Next Gen Stats.
While the Chiefs still have a better than 50-50 shot to make the postseason, they entered Week 11 with a 71% chance. And a victory over the Broncos would have given them an 80% chance to make the postseason while keeping them in the AFC West divisional race.
Now, the Chiefs are well behind in that race and may be hard-pressed to earn anything more than a wild-card berth in 2025 – if they make the playoffs at all.
Chiefs remaining schedule
The Chiefs will face the NFL’s 13th-hardest schedule the remainder of the season, per Tankathon. They have three matchups remaining against teams with winning records and three divisional opponents.
Below is a look at Kansas City’s remaining opponents:
AFC West standings
The Chiefs entered Week 11 in third place in the AFC standings. They remain there after their loss to the Broncos. Below is a look at the pecking order within the division.
Denver Broncos (9-2)Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
Kansas City will have little room for error to get back into the divisional race. Denver is currently three-and-a-half games ahead of it and also now owns a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs. That will put Kansas City’s streak of nine consecutive AFC West titles in jeopardy.
AFC playoff pictureDenver Broncos (9-2; AFC West leaders)New England Patriots (9-2; AFC East leaders)Indianapolis Colts (8-2; AFC South leaders)Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4; AFC North leaders)Buffalo Bills (7-3; wild card No. 1)Los Angeles Chargers (7-4; wild card No. 2)Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4; wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Houston Texans (5-5), Kansas City Chiefs (5-5), Baltimore Ravens (5-5), Miami Dolphins (4-7), Cincinnati Bengals (3-7), Las Vegas Raiders (2-7), New York Jets (2-8), Cleveland Browns (2-8), Tennessee Titans (1-9)