Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley and his defensive players spoke openly this summer about how they were hunting even more turnovers in 2025 after an impressive previous season in that regard.
The Packers ranked third in the league in turnover rate in 2024, but specifically talked about their hunger for more forced fumbles, after ranking eighth in the NFL with 16 of them last year.
Well, the emphasis did not lead to results early in the season, with Green Bay only taking the ball away twice in the first five games. Neither of the turnovers were recovered fumbles, and one of the picks, in Week 3 against Cleveland, should probably have been batted down by Xavier McKinney on fourth down instead.
The rate at which the Packers were taking the ball away was always likely to regress this season, as it is rare for a team to be near the top of the league in back to back years.
That is why it was important for Hafley’s defense to play a more sustainable brand of football down to down and not rely on turnovers.
It feels like that mission has been accomplished, with the Packers holding opponents to low points totals all year barring one shootout in Dallas, dispute not forcing a ton of turnovers.
In recent weeks though, the takeaways have started to come. They now have six in the last five games, with at least one in each matchup. They could have had another if the Packers had managed to recover the fumble McKinney forced on Bryce Young two weeks ago.
Sunday was Green Bay’s first multi-turnover game of the season, as Evan Williams picked off Jameis Winston in the end zone and Micah Parsons forced a fumble to end the game on the next drive.
Four of the takeaways in their recent hot stretch have been forced fumbles. There is a lot of luck involved in turnovers, or being in the right place, but the Packers’ commitment to punching at the football has remained a constant, and their fortune has now started to turn as a result.
Jameis Winston, one of the more turnover-prone quarterbacks in NFL history, was only “credited” with three turnover-worthy plays on Sunday, but it can be argued the Packers should have intercepted him as many as four or five times.
It is a positive that they were consistently in position to take the ball away, but they have to execute better and start catching the mistakes opposing quarterbacks throw at them more regularly, especially with how rarely those opportunities have been at times.
The average turnover-worthy play rate by quarterbacks playing against the Packers this year is 2.4%, which would be the ninth best mark in the NFL if it were one player. Before Sunday, it was at 1.67% which would be top five in the league.
Offenses are playing very conservatively against Green Bay, likely due to the threat of Micah Parsons wrecking a play and turning it into a turnover at any moment, as well as McKinney, who was second in the NFL in interceptions in 2024 with eight, lurking deep downfield.
The average depth of target against the Packers pass defense this year has been just 7.1 yards, which is the sixth lowest in the league.
Philadelphia simply gave up on third down at times in their matchup last week, running the ball and accepting their fate rather than risking making a game-changing error.
Teams can do that when they are in a close game, and the Packers’ lack of ability to pull away from teams on offense has also likely led to fewer chances being taken by their opponents, and therefore less opportunities for turnovers.
The Packers are still nowhere near on the pace of last year, and are on track for just 14 takeaways, but they have made strides since the bye, and there is potential for even more turnovers if they can start catching the ball and the offense can put them in more advantageous situations.