We’re in the home stretch of the 2025 NFL season now. At this point, every game is either absolutely vital for a team’s playoff chances or it’s completely meaningless for those that have already dropped out of the running.
The Jacksonville Jaguars‘ fans and detractors might have felt like the team was in the second camp following their brutal fourth-quarter collapse against the Houston Texans. They certainly didn’t look like a real playoff contender when they were blowing a 19-point lead to Davis Mills in the final 15 minutes of the game.
However, the Jaguars were still right in the thick of the playoff race, and they significantly bolstered their chances at punching a postseason ticket in Week 11. Not only did they get back into the win column against the Los Angeles Chargers, but they dominated their opponent 35-6, reestablishing themselves as real threats this season.
Nov 9, 2025; Berlin, Germany; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) gestures before a snap against the Atlanta Falcons during the NFL Berlin Game at Olympic Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
1. Indianapolis Colts (8-2, 2-0 in div.)
Last game: 31-25 win vs. Atlanta Falcons (Week 10)
Next game: @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Indianapolis Colts have a two-game lead over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the standings, but they’re just now entering their toughest stretch of the season, starting with a Week 12 matchup against a desperate Kansas City Chiefs team at home. There’s enough of a sample size now to know that the Colts have to be taken seriously, but Daniel Jones has looked especially shaky in the last two games.
In that span, Indy’s resurgent quarterback has thrown four interceptions and fumbled the ball six times. Had one or two of them bounced a different way against the Atlanta Falcons in Berlin, it might have been full-on panic mode for Jones and the Colts.
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) scores a touchdown during the third quarter of an NFL football game at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025 in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars defeated the Los Angeles Chargers 35-6. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4, 2-1 in div.)
Last game: 35-6 win vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Next game: @ Arizona Cardinals
While the Colts are just now entering their toughest stretch of the 2025 slate, the Jaguars are clear of theirs. 6-4 with wins versus the Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Chargers isn’t anything to scoff at. Looking back, Jacksonville fell in three of their four losses by one possession, and even their beatdown from the Los Angeles Rams in London wasn’t as bad as the final 35-7 score suggests.
Now, the Jaguars control their own destiny. If they can win the four favorable games left on their schedule (Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, and Tennessee Titans twice), that’ll get them to 10 wins, which should be enough to lock up a Wild Card spot in the AFC. If they can run the table, they could surpass the Colts and win the division outright.
Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills (10) looks downfield during the fourth quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025. / Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
3. Houston Texans (5-5, 3-1 in div.)
Last game: 16-13 win @ Tennessee Titans
Next game: vs. Buffalo Bills
Like the Colts, the Houston Texans are already through the lighter stretch of their schedule. They’ve beaten the Titans twice, an injury-riddled Baltimore Ravens team, and an even more depleted version of the San Francisco 49ers, and the Jaguars on a miraculous fourth-quarter comeback.
Now, their playoff chances hinge on whether they can pull off some victories against the Buffalo Bills, Colts, Chiefs, and Chargers. If they want to upset Buffalo, they’ll have to do it without C.J. Stroud, as he’s already been ruled out of the coming Thursday Night Football showdown with a concussion. Can Davis Mills pull off another stunner?
Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward (1) scrambles during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025. / Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
4. Tennessee Titans (1-9, 0-4 in div.)
Last game: 16-13 loss vs. Houston Texans
Next game: vs. Seattle Seahawks
At this point, the Titans likely want to lose out the remainder of the season while also getting some encouraging signs of growth from Cam Ward and the rest of their young prospects. If they can do so, they’ll have the opportunity to add to their core with the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints could give them trouble in a tank-off, but they could certainly pull it off.
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