The Bills and Texans meet under the lights on Thursday Night Football, and the numbers suggest we’re in for a far more intriguing matchup than the spread alone implies.

Buffalo enters as the 5.5-point favorite, powered by a Dimers simulation run that gives the Bills a 68% chance to leave NRG Stadium with a win. Josh Allen’s projection—232 passing yards with strong scoring probability on the ground or through the air—sets the tone for a Bills offense expected to control long stretches of the game. James Cook slots in as Buffalo’s most likely touchdown scorer, hinting at a game plan that leans heavily on their lead back in high-leverage moments.

Houston, though, shapes up as a live underdog rather than a placeholder. The model gives the Texans a 54% chance to cover the spread, with Davis Mills projected to keep pace through the air and Nico Collins profiling as Thursday’s most productive receiver at 76 yards. Rookie Woody Marks adds another layer, leading Houston in both first-touchdown and anytime-touchdown probability. With a simulated final score of Bills 23-19, this matchup sets up as a tense, play-by-play affair—one where a handful of swings could turn projections into surprises.

Bills vs. Texans betting preview

Explore the interactive widget below to discover the current spread, total, and moneyline odds and probabilities for the Bills-Texans game at NRG Stadium.

This prediction and best bet for Thursday’s NFL matchup between the Bills and Texans is from Dimers.com, a trusted source for sports betting predictions.

Check out all the important details on today’s game, as well as the best odds sourced from the top sportsbooks in the country.

Game details

Key information on the Bills vs. Texans matchup, including where the game is and what time it kicks off.

Teams: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston TexansDate: Thursday, November 20, 2025Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ESTLocation: NRG StadiumNFL standings: Current NFL division standingsNFL injuries: Check the latest updates to the official NFL injury reportOdds

Odds for the key markets in the Bills-Texans NFL contest.

Spread: Bills -5.5 (-122), Texans +5.5 (+100)Moneyline: Bills -285, Texans +235Total: Over/Under 43.5 (-105/-105)

The odds and lines presented here are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Expert prediction: Bills vs. Texans

Leveraging advanced data analysis and machine learning, the experts at Dimers have performed 10,000 simulations of Thursday’s Bills vs. Texans game.

According to Dimers’ popular predictive analytics model, the Bills are more likely to defeat the Texans at NRG Stadium. This prediction is based on the model giving the Bills a 68% chance of winning the game.

Furthermore, Dimers predicts that the Texans (+5.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 43.5-point over/under is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

As always, these predictions and probabilities are accurate at the time of publication but are subject to potential changes.

Bills vs. Texans best bet

Our top pick for the Bills vs. Texans Week 12 NFL matchup is to bet on the Texans +5.5 (+100).

This betting advice is formulated through cutting-edge simulations and valuable wagering intelligence, designed to bring you the best possible plays.

Score prediction for Bills vs. Texans

Dimers’ predicted final score for the Buffalo vs. Houston game on Thursday has the Bills winning 23-19.

This expert prediction is based on each team’s average score following 10,000 game simulations, offering a glimpse into the potential outcome.

NFL player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Thursday’s game without necessarily betting on its outcome.

This article features the most likely first and anytime touchdown scorers for the Bills and Texans, as well as projected player stats.

Buffalo BillsFirst touchdown scorer predictionsJames Cook: 11.7% probabilityJosh Allen: 10.9% probabilityKhalil Shakir: 5.0% probabilityAnytime touchdown predictionsJames Cook: 51.9% probabilityJosh Allen: 49.5% probabilityKhalil Shakir: 27.0% probabilityProjected box score leadersQB passing yards: Josh Allen, 232 yardsReceiving yards: Khalil Shakir, 49 yardsRushing yards: James Cook, 81 yardsHouston TexansFirst touchdown scorer predictionsWoody Marks: 9.9% probabilityNico Collins: 8.1% probabilityDalton Schultz: 3.9% probabilityAnytime touchdown predictionsWoody Marks: 42.6% probabilityNico Collins: 36.6% probabilityDalton Schultz: 19.8% probabilityProjected box score leadersQB passing yards: Davis Mills, 217 yardsReceiving yards: Nico Collins, 76 yardsRushing yards: Woody Marks, 64 yardsNFL Week 12: Bills vs. Texans

Get ready for Thursday’s game between the Bills and Texans in Week 12 of the NFL season at NRG Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 8:15 p.m. EST. We emphasize that all of the NFL best bets and NFL predictions in this preview are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Bills vs. Texans matchup, and they are accurate at the time of publication. They aim to help you make more informed choices when placing bets at online sportsbooks.

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