The Jacksonville Jaguars enter Week 12 trailing the Indianapolis Colts by two games in the AFC South. With seven weeks left, that gap may look steep, but the remaining schedules tell a different story.

Week 12 Sets Up the First Major Shift

Jacksonville not only benefits from a decisive strength-of-schedule advantage, but the Jaguars also face the Colts twice in the final stretch. With momentum potentially swinging as early as this week, Jacksonville is in a far better position than the standings suggest to make a legitimate run at the division title.

The most immediate turning point comes this week. Indianapolis travels to Kansas City, a matchup that puts the Colts up against Patrick Mahomes and one of the most well-rounded units in the league. Kansas City ranks 5th in PFSN’s Offense Impact Rankings and 9th in PFSN’s Defense Impact Rankings. The Chiefs are fighting for a playoff spot and present one of the toughest challenges the Colts have faced all year.

Jacksonville has already shown what it takes to defeat Kansas City after outplaying the Chiefs in Week 5. The Colts now face the task of matching that level of performance on the road. Their chances will be tested early, and the outcome could narrow the division significantly. The Colts have not beaten any team with a top-ten-ranked offense this season so that this week will be a big test.

On the other hand, Jacksonville draws the Arizona Cardinals in week 12. Arizona enters the matchup at just 3-7 and will be without either Kyler Murray or Marvin Harrison Jr. in the contest. The Jaguars are positioned for an expected win against a struggling team now without its top quarterback and receiver. If the results go as expected, Jacksonville will move within a single game of Indianapolis after Sunday’s contests.

A Soft Schedule for Jacksonville

The core of Jacksonville’s opportunity is found in its remaining schedule. Across the remaining seven games, the Jaguars do not face a single top-ten offense outside of Indianapolis, according to PFSN’s Offense Impact Rankings. Their matchups include the 31st-ranked Titans in weeks 13 and 18, the Jets and their 29th-ranked offense in week 15, the Cardinals at 20th this Sunday, and Denver, which slots in at 15th in week 16. It is one of the softest offensive slates in the league.

PFSN’s Defense Impact Rankings also favor Jacksonville significantly. The Jaguars come in at 15th, and aside from Denver, no remaining opponent has a higher-ranked defense. The Colts’ defense is ranked 16th, just below the Jaguars, and every other opponent falls into the bottom half of the league. This gives Jacksonville a consistent matchup edge that stretches through nearly the entire second half of the season.

A Daunting Stretch for Indianapolis

Indianapolis faces the opposite scenario. Three of the Colts’ remaining opponents have top-ten offenses. Kansas City ranks 5th, the Seahawks are 6th, and San Francisco is 8th. The Colts have not beaten any team with an offense ranked this high, losing to the Los Angeles Rams in week 4.

The defensive matchups for Indianapolis may be even more difficult. Four of their remaining games are against top ten defenses. Kansas City ranks 9th, Seattle ranks 5th, and they play the Houston Texans twice, who have the 2nd-ranked defense in the league. The only opponent remaining with a defense ranked lower than Indianapolis’s is San Francisco. The disparity between the Colts’ and Jaguars’ remaining schedules is among the largest in the league.

Considering how the Colts have struggled as of late, with Daniel Jones turning the ball over 7 times in their past two games, the upcoming schedule could be a devastating stretch of losses for the Colts.

Head-to-Head May Decide the Champ

Jacksonville and Indianapolis meet for the first time in Week 14, and again in Week 17. These are the most important games left for both teams. The rivals have not faced each other yet this season, so these matchups represent clean, decisive opportunities for Jacksonville to either eliminate the deficit or fall back down the hole. If the Jaguars sweep the Colts, these two games alone could put Jacksonville at the top of the division by closing the gap and giving the Jaguars the tiebreaker.

Even a split would be meaningful, though, as Jacksonville holds such a significant advantage in the schedule surrounding these matchups. But if the Jaguars want to prove that they are undoubtedly the rightful leaders of the division, sweeping Indianapolis would put all uncertainty to rest.

Week By Week Breakdown

The surrounding weeks strengthen Jacksonville’s position. In Weeks 13 and 18, Jacksonville plays the 1-9 Titans, the league’s worst team. Divisional matchups are never guaranteed, but the Titans are overmatched on both sides of the ball. These contests present the two most favorable games on Jacksonville’s remaining slate, and if the final week decides the division winner, Jacksonville will be in the perfect position.

In those same weeks, the Colts face the Houston Texans. Houston has not met preseason expectations, but it remains significantly more competitive than Tennessee. Houston features one of the best defenses in the league, which creates two matchups where Indianapolis will be challenged both physically and schematically. If the Texans can take down the Titans in just one of these games, it would be another big opportunity for Jacksonville to close in on the division lead.

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In Week 15, the Jaguars face the flailing 2-8 Jets, a team with major issues across the board following a fire sale at the trade deadline. Jacksonville will be expected to control that game from start to finish. Indianapolis, meanwhile, plays the 7-3 Seattle Seahawks on the road that same week. Seattle is competing in the tight NFC West race and provides a threatening challenge on both sides of the ball. A Sunday in which the Jaguars are expected to have a breezy win presents the Colts with, maybe, their most formidable opponent of the season in a hostile environment.

Week 16 presents the most difficult remaining game for the Jaguars aside from their matchups with Indianapolis. Jacksonville travels to Denver to face the 9-2 Broncos, the league’s No.1-ranked defense. This exhibition will be an uphill climb for the Jaguars, but the Colts have a difficult assignment of their own. Indianapolis faces the 7-4 San Francisco 49ers, a team the Jaguars already defeated in Week 4. With all of Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Ricky Pearsall healthy, this matchup is certainly going to test Indianapolis from start to finish.

Projecting the Finish

A realistic projection of the Jaguars’ remaining schedule is that they will defeat the Cardinals, Jets, and Titans twice, split with the Colts, and lose to Denver. If this is the result, the Jaguars would finish the season at 11-6.

Indianapolis must navigate a closing stretch that features Kansas City, Seattle, San Francisco, and Houston twice. The Colts are only 2-2 against teams with winning records this season, and the win against Denver required late officiating controversies to secure a one-point victory. If the Jaguars’ predicted outcome comes to fruition, Indianapolis would need to go out of these five games with at least three wins to secure the division safely. Jacksonville went 3-2 against these same opponents already this year, so if Indianapolis fails to match that, then the Jaguars would secure the division with the tiebreaker.

Final Verdict

Jacksonville has a plausible and attainable path to overtaking Indianapolis for the AFC South title. The Jaguars still hold their own destiny if they manage to win out, they benefit from a significantly easier schedule than the Colts, and they are hot off a big win while Indianapolis is cooling off.

Suppose Jacksonville can continue winning games as the Colts slow down. In that case, they are positioned to climb out of their current deficit and finish the season as AFC South champions.