Riding a 3-game win streak, Arizona is set for its final home game of the 2025 season, the first under its new moniker Casino del Sol Stadium.

Baylor (5-5, 3-4 Big 12) makes its first trip to Tucson having lost three of four. Arizona (7-3, 4-3) is favored by 6.5 points, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

How will Arizona do in this one? Our staff makes its predictions.

Kim Doss — Arizona wins 35-24

Baylor has a double-overtime win over SMU, which was ranked by the AP at the time. That’s the sum total of “good wins” on its resume. Arizona hasn’t exactly stacked wins against top competition, either. Its victory over Cincinnati last week knocked the Bearcats out of the rankings, so its best win is also over a formerly ranked opponent.

This will be a matchup of strength-vs-strength. Baylor has the second-best passing offense in FBS when it comes to yards per game (324.4). Arizona is 7th-best in fewest passing yards allowed (159.5 ypg). The UA defensive unit allows fewer yards in total (306.2 ypg) than Baylor averages just in the air. Baylor’s 464.9 yards in total offense are 15th in the country while the Wildcats are holding opponents to the 19th-fewest total yards.

What Baylor hasn’t done is put up enough points to overcome a subpar defense. While its scoring offense of 33.2 ppg is respectable enough at No. 32 in the country, its scoring defense allows 31.9 ppg (No. 117). On the other side, Arizona is just behind at No. 35 in scoring offense with 32.7 ppg while also ranking top 30 in scoring defense at T-29 (20.3 ppg).

This far into the season, the stats should reliably indicate who these teams are. Arizona has a very good defense and a solid offense. Baylor can gain a lot of yards, but doesn’t turn them into points at the same clip—certainly not often enough to overcome the more balanced Wildcats on their home turf.

Ezra Amacher — Arizona wins 37-27

As long as Arizona gets off to a good start and doesn’t commit any silly turnovers or special teams mistakes, this is a game the Wildcats should win by multiple possessions. Baylor’s defense has given up 40+ points in three of its last four games (the other was a 40-3 shellacking of a dreadful UCF team, and it’s hard to see the Bears slowing down a Wildcats offense that is rounding out well in the late part of the season. Arizona should have enough offensive firepower to overcome Baylor’s passing attack, which is sure to put some points on the board.

Adam Green — Arizona wins 31-20

This entire season I, like many of you, have been wondering if Arizona is in fact a good team. They’ve won games but, like, those were all against bad teams and at home so how good are they really? The last couple weeks (along with the entire season) have shown that the Wildcats are a good team, which is why I think they will beat Baylor.

While the Bears can be explosive they are trending in the wrong direction and an Arizona squad that has found its groove should be able to make Senior Day a good one. So long as Noah Fifita and the offense don’t turn the ball over and the defense puts up some fight (and maybe creates a turnover or two?) the home team should have enough firepower, willpower and maturity to win this game.

Juan Serrano — Arizona wins 41-21

This could potentially be a trap game for the Brent Brennan’s squad. They have far exceeded this year’s expectations, and are looking to build on it. With it being the last home game of the season, Arizona should be prepared for what Baylor is going to bring to Tucson. However, that Territorial Cup matchup in under 10 days is mounting up to be a huge showdown. Could the Wildcats be looking ahead to the Sun Devils and taking back state bragging rights? I don’t think so. Brennan has time and again said that this team focuses on the “right now” of every week. They know exactly who they play this week and don’t care about the upset win last week or the game in Tempe. This is a very special group of seniors that should have one last good showing for the home crowd.

The one area of concern is the passing attack for the Bears. Sawyer Robertson leads the Big 12 in passing yards and touchdowns. He is also second in the conference in interceptions thrown. It is a very big risk, big reward offense. I think this favors Arizona mainly due to the fact that it has one of the best secondaries in the league. Led by Treydan Stukes and Dalton Johnson, that group should have a good day.

Arizona’s running backs should be able to have a good day. The Cerberus like attack of Kedrick Reescano, Ismail Mahdi, and Quincy Craig can do serious damage on the Bears’ defense. You could also factor in the legs of Noah Fifita and the running attack of the Wildcats might be unstoppable. If Baylor starts to focus in on the run game, then Fifita can sling it out to his receivers, who have shown to be more reliable as the season has progressed. In the end, it should be a senior day win, and the first win at Casino Del Sol Stadium.

Brandon Combs — Arizona wins 35-24

This is going to be an interesting game, for a few reasons. First and foremost, the player availability report for Arizona is….not great. Tristan Bounds and Myron Robinson are both ruled out after getting injured against Cincinnati last week. Tia Savea is listed as doubtful.

The second part is Baylor’s passing game. It’s good. It’s productive. Sawyer Robertson kind-of reminds me of a feast or famine type player. He leads the conference with 29 touchdowns, however, he is tied second in interceptions with nine. It also worth noting that he leads to conference in passing yards. Of note, he is not much of a runner…like at all. Though it is always worth keeping an eye on with Arizona’s defense.

Lastly, the defenses. I believe Arizona’s secondary will do a good job against the Bears’ passing attack. The ‘Cats are tied for the lead in interceptions in the conference. They are one the best scoring defenses in the nation. Baylor is…exactly the opposite. They are a very porous defense that gives up tons of yards and points. If Arizona’s defense can slow down Baylor’s air game, this game is over. And I believe the ‘Cats will do just that.

Brian Pedersen — Arizona wins 38-28

It may feel like defense is optional in this one, as Baylor scores more than 30 per game and is the No. 2 passing offense in the country but also allows more than 30 a contest. Arizona has shown it can score, topping 30 five times, but has also been able to lock down on defense particularly through the air.

With the strong likelihood that there will be a lot of points scored, getting defensive stops will be even more important. Arizona has its most interceptions since 2019 and usually turns those takeaways into points and doing that here can help create a cushion and keep Baylor one dimensional.

Arizona is on a roll, while Baylor is in some turmoil. The seniors go out with one last home win.

(straight up/against the spread)