Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video | Series: Texans lead 7–5 | Last meeting: Texans 23, Bills 20 (Oct. 6, 2024, in Houston)

The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans meet under the primetime lights Thursday night in a matchup with significant AFC playoff implications. Buffalo, surging at 7–3, looks to keep pace in the AFC East race, while Houston, sitting at 5–5, seeks to stay afloat in a crowded wild-card chase. The Texans have historically held the upper hand in this series, leading 7–5 and winning three of the last four — including the 2020 wild-card overtime thriller and a 23–20 victory earlier this season.

Buffalo enters the short week fresh off a 44–32 win over Tampa Bay in Orchard Park, a game highlighted by another Josh Allen offensive explosion and the defense generating timely stops. Houston is coming off a gritty 16–13 road victory over Tennessee behind a strong defensive effort and key production from its playmakers.

The Bills have quietly been one of the NFL’s best Thursday teams, going 6–1 on TNF since 2017, including a 31–21 win over Miami in Week 3 this season. Houston, meanwhile, has thrived recently in the matchup against Buffalo, owning the most recent meeting and three of the last four overall.

Buffalo continues to rely heavily on Josh Allen, who added more milestones to his résumé last week. With 75 career regular-season rushing touchdowns, Allen is now tied with Cam Newton for the most ever by a quarterback. His 213 passing touchdowns tie Brett Favre for fifth-most through a player’s first eight NFL seasons.

The turnover narrative remains a defining one: Allen is 37–7 when he doesn’t commit a turnover, compared to 46–30 when he does and 20–19 when he has multiple giveaways. Buffalo’s offense, though, has been lethal whenever James Cook scores a touchdown—the Bills are 6–0 in those games this year.

Defensively, the Bills have been more vulnerable on the ground this season, already surrendering 17 rushing touchdowns, four more than their entire total from 2023. One bright spot has been second-year safety Cole Bishop, who has interceptions in back-to-back games and three on the season. His first career start came in last year’s loss in Houston, giving this matchup added meaning.

Head coach Sean McDermott enters with momentum as well, having earned his 100th career win last week, becoming just the sixth coach to reach the mark within nine seasons.

Houston’s offense continues to be a mix of youth and explosiveness. Rookie running back Woody Marks has been particularly effective at home, with three rushing touchdowns in Houston this season.

Quarterback play has leaned heavily on the Texans deep pass-catching group. Nico Collins delivered nine catches for 92 yards and a touchdown last week and has scored in back-to-back games against Buffalo. Rookie wideout Jayden Higgins continues to earn a larger role after a four-catch, 55-yard outing in Nashville. Tight end Dalton Schultz remains a security blanket, posting his third straight game with at least six receptions and 50 yards.

Houston’s defense has been the team’s backbone in recent weeks. Will Anderson Jr. dominated the Titans with four tackles, two tackles for loss, a sack, and two takeaways. His eight sacks rank tied for seventh in the league. Danielle Hunter added 1.5 sacks and ranks tied for fourth in the NFL with nine this season. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair has notched at least six tackles in three straight games.

In the secondary, the Texans boast one of the NFL’s most active ball-hawking duos: Rookie corner Kamari Lassiter has a pass defensed in seven consecutive games, the longest active streak in the league. Derek Stingley Jr. has a pass defensed in eight of his last nine outings.

The Bills and Texans first met in Houston’s inaugural season in 2002, a 31–24 Buffalo win. Since then, stretches of dominance have swung back and forth. Houston’s three-game win streak from 2009–14 remains the longest in the series. Buffalo’s biggest moment came in 2021, a 40–0 blowout victory that stands as the most lopsided result between the teams.

Given Houston’s recent success and Buffalo’s strong Thursday-night pedigree, this matchup shapes up as one of the most evenly balanced primetime games of the season.

Buffalo is fighting to keep pace in an AFC playoff race where every win matters, especially with Miami applying pressure in the division. Houston needs a win to avoid slipping below .500 again and to stay firmly in the wild-card picture.

With Josh Allen playing some of his best football and Houston’s young stars emerging, Thursday night promises to deliver a high-stakes showdown deep in the heart of Texas.