Only two weeks remain in the college football regular season and while this certainly hasn’t been the best season for my College Football Projection Model, eventually things will start to turn, I think.

I’ve been mentioning closing line value for weeks now and while it hasn’t come to fruition, it’s still a good predictor of success. Just looking at last week; we beat the closing number by a good margin in three out of four games but managed to go just 1-3. TCU was bet at 4.5, closed +3.5 -118 and then got blown out. The Texas-Georgia over was bet at 48.5 -110 and closed 50.5 -113. Another loser. The Oregon and Minnesota over got home for us after that moved three points in our direction. Again, I’m not saying you’re going to win every time, but you’ll like your chances over the long-term if you’re consistently beating the closing line.

So let’s hope that we can get that turned around the last few weeks of the season here.

Last week’s record: 1-3, -2.40 units
Season record: 24-37-1, -17.00 units, -24.8% ROI

Three bets to start and possibly an addition later before kickoff tomorrow. I just need a little more time to figure out if we can get a better price. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!

College football Week 13 best betsUNLV -2.5 (-118) vs. Hawaii

Worst price to bet: UNLV -3 (-110)
The big advantage should be UNLV’s rushing attack against Hawaii’s rush defense. Hawaii has been dreadful against the run this year, ranking below average in success rate but also near the bottom of the FBS in EPA per rush. That big of an advantage is going to be hard to overcome, especially on the road. Dan Mullen will do everything he can to take advantage of a leaky run defense which should give UNLV an edge at covering.

Georgia Tech -2.5 (-110) vs. Pitt

Worst price to bet: Georgia Tech -2.5 (-115)
Personally, I’m skeptical of Georgia Tech and backing the Yellow Jackets in a game where Pitt is coming off a blowout loss doesn’t excite me too much. But my numbers are showing an edge here and I don’t think this should be less than a field goal. Georgia Tech’s defense is bad, but Pitt doesn’t have the best offense to exploit that. Though, the Panthers have been better since going with Mason Heintschel at quarterback. Either way, I think the best unit in this game is Georgia Tech’s offense. Pitt has a good run defense, but as we saw last week, the step up in competition leaves a little bit to be desired when defending the run.

Cincinnati moneyline (+116) vs. BYU

Worst price to bet: Cincinnati moneyline +110
Sure, the Bearcats are off back-to-back losses to Utah and Arizona while BYU sits firmly in a playoff race. But that’s not stopping me from believing the wrong team is favored in this one. I don’t think BYU is very good. BYU is a fine team, but from a power rating perspective, their CFP ranking overrates them quite a bit. I could see shootout potential in this one considering Cincinnati’s defense isn’t great, but the matchup that I like here is Cincinnati’s run game. I think the Bearcats will find a good bit of success against BYU’s defense and that ultimately gives them the edge to pull off the upset and shakeup the CFP race on the penultimate weekend of the regular season.